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Day 11: @RobinhoodApp $HOOD Stocks had a monster Monday. The Nasdaq-100 gained 3.4%, chips rose almost 7% and VIX dropped to 20. $BTC managed about 0.7% and ETFs still sold $201M. The bigger worry is the Fed, since futures now price roughly an 81% chance of a December hike. One of my three conditions for getting long again was no hawkish surprise on Dec 9, so until that meeting I’m capping myself at half size. No divergence on any timeframe today, so I’m still flat. Robinhood is down a third from September, but the business keeps growing. Q3 revenue hit a record $1.42B. Prediction markets made $173M, more than crypto’s $120M, and October deposits topped $13B. It’s also one of the few growth names that earns more when rates rise. The risks are cooling trading volumes and a prediction-market fight that looks headed for the Supreme Court. I’m not buying at $83. I want $76–80 with a daily divergence and decent October numbers, then half size with a stop under $71. Personal research notes, not financial advice.

Day 10: @Stacks $STX $BTC printed a 1-hour bullish divergence on Saturday at $74,888 and another one early Monday at $73,510. On paper both hit the 61.8% half-exit and came back to break-even, so roughly +0.65R and +0.7R. Without that half-exit rule, Saturday’s trade would have been a full loss. Price now sits about 1% above the 200-day SMA, which is my buy zone, but ETFs bled $1.28B last week and BTC ignored Friday’s stock bounce. Still flat. Stacks has a great story. Institutions lock BTC in their own custody for six months and earn about 3% paid in BTC. Bond 3 sold out at 1,005 BTC with BitGo, Bullish and 21shares involved. The catch is in the numbers. All three bonds lock only about 21M STX, while new supply runs somewhere between 26M and 110M a year. The BTC yield comes from miners, and miners spend more only when STX is higher. At $0.31 I’m waiting. I’d look near $0.27 on a daily divergence, and I’ll watch Bond 4’s size on Dec 3. Personal research notes, not financial advice.

Day 9: $LIT That $80K reclaim didn’t survive a day. $BTC fell from $80K to $75.5K in two hours on Thursday night, tagged $75,208 this morning, and closed below the 200-day EMA for the first time in this pullback. ETFs dumped another $430M. The tell I want is a 1-hour break below $75,208 while MACD stays above -1,025. The 200-day SMA at $73.2K is my real buy zone. Lighter is a genuinely busy perp DEX: $68B in monthly volume, about $60M of annualized revenue, every bought-back token burned, a CFTC filing promised this month, and Robinhood distribution. It even rose against BTC today. The catch arrives Dec 27, when team and investor tokens start unlocking. Year one releases about 167M LIT, two-thirds of today’s float and roughly 12x what the buyback eats. At $3.43 the math favors waiting. I’d look again in January around $2.3–2.5. Personal research notes, not financial advice.

Day 8: $COIN One candle changed the mood. Late Wednesday $BTC went from about $78.5K to over $81K, closed at $80,504, and pushed the daily MACD back above its signal line. Yesterday’s 1-hour divergence long hit its target, so the log now stands at three winners and one stop across four signals. I’m still not calling a trend change while price sits under the 50-day at $82,153, and there’s a fat $91M pocket of long liquidations parked just below $80K. Coinbase is a strange mix right now. Transaction revenue fell 44% from a year ago, and most of the headline profit came from investment gains. But subscriptions and services, led by $307M of USDC income, now make up half of revenue, and its share of global volume doubled to 10.7%. The chart is the interesting part: a lower low than February, with MACD, RSI and volume all diverging on the daily. I’d only buy above about $155.4, keep it small, and get out on a close below $135. Personal research notes, not financial advice.

Day 7: $PLTR Yesterday’s 1-hour $BTC long triggered, ran to $78,053, then got stopped out this morning when price dove to $75,736 and swept exactly the liquidation pocket I was worried about. Minus 1R. The flush itself built a new two-unit divergence, though, and price ripped straight back to $78,164. One loss, one win, same zone. Next time I take half at 61.8% and move the stop to entry. ETFs are still bleeding, but less each day. Palantir just posted the best growth quarter in its history: revenue up 96%, US commercial up 148% and finally bigger than government, a 62% adjusted margin, and raised guidance. The stock still dipped. New contract value grew only 6%, and US commercial bookings fell about 30% from Q2. It’s also tightly tied to Washington, with about 41% of revenue coming from the US government, so the midterm result could shift the outlook for defense and federal spending. That’s one to watch. At roughly 49x this year’s sales, the market wants acceleration, not just growth. At $175 I’m waiting. The 200-day zone at $155–162 is where I’d start small, with a stop on a close below $145. Personal research notes, not financial advice.

Day 6: $GOOG $BTC dipped to $76,389, a hair under last Friday’s low and right on the 200-day EMA, while ETFs dumped another $399M. On the 1-hour chart, price made a lower low but MACD jumped from -810 to -310, RSI ticked up and volume dried up. That’s a three-way bullish divergence. It only becomes a trade above $76,977, with a stop just under $76,300. The 5-minute chart hasn’t confirmed and the midterms land tonight, so I’d go small if it triggers. Alphabet just had its worst day since the 2004 IPO, down more than 12%. The business itself looks great. Cloud revenue doubled to $30.7B with a 36% margin, there’s a $561B backlog, and Search is still growing 12%. The cash is the problem. Capex hit $51B in one quarter, free cash flow went negative for a second straight quarter, debt nearly tripled, and buybacks stopped. Management says 2027 capex goes “significantly” higher. On earnings it’s about 26x; on free cash flow it yields 0.6%. I’m not buying $278. The April low at $271.5 is the line I care about. I’d scale in around $265–272 only if the daily chart shows a bullish divergence or a clean hold, and I’m out on a close below $255. Personal research notes, not financial advice.

Day 5: $INTC Binance has its withdrawals back, but ETF holders weren’t waiting around: $643M left spot $BTC funds on Friday, more than wiping out the four days before it. Price is parked near $78.3K, still 4.5% under the 50-day, and I’m flat. Midday brought something useful, though. The 5-minute chart made a new high at $78,878 while MACD and RSI both rolled over. It’s a two-unit bearish divergence that has already reached its first target. That’s my second clean sample, and the first on the short side. Midterms are tomorrow, so no new size until then. Intel just had its worst day since 2024, down 28.6%. Q3 actually beat. The Q4 guide was the problem: $0.25 EPS against $0.43 expected, with gross margin sliding from 44% to 38%. Expensive memory is choking PC demand, and a fab accident in Israel made it worse. It’s the other side of the CXMT trade. At $66 it’s oversold but not cheap, around 66x run-rate earnings. I’d wait for $58–62 and a daily bullish divergence, and I’m out on a close below $54. Personal research notes, not financial advice.

Day 4: Unitree (688836.SH) What a 24 hours. Binance got drained of roughly $6B, the biggest crypto hack ever, and $BTC fell straight to $76,500 while about $1.5B of mostly long positions got wiped. My $80K exit rule fired on Thursday’s close, so I’m flat. The interesting part came this morning. On the 5-minute chart, price made a lower low but MACD, RSI and volume all refused to follow. It’s my first clean three-way bullish divergence, and it ran about 2.8%. Sadly I was still asleep and missed it, so this one goes in the log. Shorts are stacked at $78.8K–79.9K just above us. Switching to robots. Unitree ships more humanoids than anyone, and its stock went from 405 to 739 ($CNY) in two weeks. The first quarterly report since listing, though, was messy: revenue up 70%, profit down 17%, inventory up 177%. At around 520x trailing core earnings, the price is betting on years of hypergrowth. I’m not paying 658 for that. I’d look again around 500–520, and I’m out on a close below 460. Personal research notes, not financial advice.

Day 3: $CXMT The 50-day average did its job. $BTC poked $81,895 yesterday, ran straight into it, and the hawkish Fed hold (two votes for a hike, 10Y above 5%) finished the move. We’ve dropped to $79,710. Wednesday’s close at $81,343 kept my half long alive, but a daily close under $80K takes it out. ETF flows quietly flipped strong, $313M in two days, yet none of my three timeframes shows a MACD divergence. The next magnet is $37.9M of long liquidations at $79,034, and tomorrow’s max pain sits at $78K. Over in Shanghai, CXMT is China’s DRAM champion, and its IPO ran 466% on day one. Nine months of 2026 brought in RMB 131B of profit, and the stock trades near 13x annualized earnings. Cheap? Look closer. Q3 revenue grew 15–21% while profit grew 1–4%, and DRAM price hikes are shrinking every quarter. Memory stocks look cheapest right at the top of the cycle. At 43 the upside and downside are about even, so I’m passing. I’d revisit around 38–41, and I’m out on a close below 38. Personal research notes, not financial advice.

Day 2: $MRNA $BTC is pressing right up against its 50-day average at $81,935, and the heatmap shows why that level matters: about $74M of short liquidations are stacked just below it at $81.6K–81.8K. Tuesday still closed at $80,910, so my half-size long lives another day. The 200-day sits way down at $73,109, a long way from here. No MACD divergence on any timeframe yet. If price tags a new high into that wall while MACD prints a lower high, that’s my short signal. The Fed speaks tonight. Moderna is the comeback story of the year. Shares went from $22 to $254 after its Merck-partnered cancer vaccine cut melanoma recurrence by 42% in Phase 3. That’s genuinely historic science. But the result came in at the low end of hopes, the stock dropped 17.6% when the data leaked, and it still trades near $80B in market cap on just $2.2B of revenue and a $3.2B annual loss. The average analyst target is 33% below the price, and the daily MACD is diverging bearishly. I’m not chasing or shorting at $208. After the Nov 6 earnings and the Nov 12 investor day, I’d look at $173–177, with a stop below $158.85. Personal research notes, not financial advice.

Day 1: $PANW, great business, pricey ticket Let’s look at today’s $BTC move. Monday closed at $80,150, just a hair above my $80K exit line, so the half-size long stays on. The fun part is the Coinglass heatmap: $101M of long liquidations are parked at $79,547, and $88M of shorts sit up at $81,139. Price is stuck right between them, so whichever side cracks first probably runs. No MACD divergence on the daily, 1H or 5m, so no new trade from me. Max pain for Friday’s expiry is $78K, with the FOMC and big-tech earnings landing first. As for Palo Alto, the business is firing on all cylinders. NGS ARR is up 63% to $9.1B, RPO is $21.2B, FCF margins run near 38%, and it just became a founding partner in Anthropic’s critical-infrastructure defense program. The catch is the price tag: about 59x FY27 free cash flow, while peers trade around 21x. The average analyst target sits only 2% above Monday’s close. And the daily chart has a textbook bearish divergence, with price making higher highs in June, August and October as MACD peaks kept falling. That already produced a 20% drop. My plan: no chasing at $390. If the Nov 18 earnings confirm organic growth, I’ll scale in at $358–367 and stop out below $339.5. Personal research notes, not financial advice.

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