Nice surprise to hear @ChrisGreenwayUK turn up on BBC Radio 4 this morning in a programme celebrating the centenary of the shipping forecast!
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I wonder what other regimes - particularly in Africa - that have put their security in Russia's hands think, when they see Russia abandoning its longest-serving ally in the Middle East?
Multiple Russian airlifters have arrived at Khmeimim airbase in Syria, including the massive An-124.
Increasing signs that Russian forces are evacuating their key eastern Mediterranean holdings.
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Don’t agree with all of this, but *strongly* agree with prescriptions on procurement - particularly breaking away from bespoke solutions that add cost and - crucially in present circumstances - time.
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There’s been much discussion of the failure of Israeli intelligence before 7/10/23; much less about what Hamas assessed would be the consequences of its action. I doubt it foresaw what has since happened, to itself and to its strongest ally. Another failure of imagination?
If this report is correct, does it make any sense? The training, maintenance and other support requirements of a force mixing MiGs, Sukhois, F-16s, Gripens and Eurofighters would surely be enormous. 1/2
Ukraine is negotiating with its allies to receive Swedish Gripen and European Eurofighter fighter jets
mil.in.ua/en/news/ukraine-is…
#Ukraine #UkraineRussiaWar #Gripen #Eurofighter #fighterjets
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What a an excellent thread! That booklet must have been discontinued when I joined in 1978. Instead I was given one on “Officemanship”. It included a very useful glossary of the sporting (mainly cricket) terms such as “close of play”, which governed a lot of FCO life.
50 years ago today I joined the Diplomatic Service. On the first day we were given this booklet, which turned out to be rather alarming for someone whose experience of abroad was mainly backpacking. By para 2 of the Introduction it was clear that there were pitfalls everywhere! 1
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Excellent edition of The Briefing Room on #BBCRadio4 today. Topic: Russia, with @MikeClarke2020s, @MarkGaleotti and @Jack_Watling. I’d have liked a bit more on the political dynamics in Moscow (is Putin really unchallenged?) But you can only cover so much in 30 minutes.
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As usual, a very good commentary.
My thoughts here from 17.13 on Zelensky’s gamble in taking the fight to Russian territory: what’s he hoping to achieve, at what risk and and sh’d UK and other Western arms suppliers draw red lines? Main judgements in this short 🧵1/ bbc.co.uk/sounds/play/m0021w…
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“Intelligence, surprise and uncertainty”. A topical theme.
📢 We are delighted to publish the program & open the registration for the ANNUAL ISRAELI CONFERENCE FOR INTELLIGENCE STUDIES 2024
The conference will feature int'l & israeli experts on intelligence, surprise, & uncertainty from academia, intelligence, & policy circles >>
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This was completely predictable. The only surprise to me is that so many commentators appeared to think - against all past evidence - that Maduro might ever accept an opposition victory.
Open and obvious rigging of the election in Venezuela, the results were clear when they were coming in and it certainly was not a Maduro victory. Imperative that governments reject this.
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We should have a clearer idea where the US is headed by this time next year; I'd get TORs agreed by July 2025 with the aim of a progress report by Christmas and completion by Easter 2026. Whitehall now has some experience of doing these reviews (and the FCO/DfID merger...1/2
Yes. Of course, both the US and UK have alliances many other countries. What makes their relationship "special" are three particular aspects: nuclear, defence and intelligence. (Plus its resilience, surviving disagreements and changes of leadership on both sides of the Atlantic.)
The US-UK “special relationship” owes less to the English language & British roots of many Americans, & more to shared values & interests & determined cooperation, such as to defeat Hitler, aid Ukraine, & promote mutual prosperity. @America250
rand.org/pubs/commentary/202…
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Not surprising: the 2000 spending settlement was for three years and UK annual GDP growth averaged well over 3% in 2000-02 [ONS figures]. teapawt.net/RAdmAubrey/status/1810…
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There is a pretty good model in the 1997-98 Strategic Defence Review which set clear requirements in terms of military capability. That made the 2000 Spending Review much easier from my (HMT) perspective, even if there was still much debate with MOD about the additional … 1/2
It’s agreed that there must be an increase in spending. But amid all the talk about inputs, I hope the Strategic Review will set some output targets. Once we are clear what we want the armed forces to be capable of doing (and by when), we might well find that 2.5% isn’t enough.
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Great interview on @BBCRadio4 “In Touch” this evening with @VictoriaH_FCDO, recently-appointed Ambassador to Slovenia. Well worth hearing the story of the UK’s first blind Ambassador!
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Well, yes, but would it have been feasible in those decades to stop dual-use stuff reaching Russia? The days of COCOM were very different from today's globalised world: I suspect it would be futile to try to re-create it now. Apart from the usual challenges of policing ... 1/2
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Wise words as usual from David Omand on @BBCWorldatOne. He agrees that we will see more crises in the coming years, and warns against stoking political division on the subject when, these days, there is little real difference between the main parties on national security policy.