Tiny Tim

🚗 $TSLA Tesla Macro View (Must Read): To understand how Tesla really trades, we must acknowledge that while Tesla receives most of its revenue from car sales, it does not trade conceptually just as a car company - whether investors like it or not. It is an incredibly misunderstood point still, because I see people frequently cite the falling car sales or Elon’s politics being alienating to European buyers for the reasons of its drop. These claims fundamentally assume that higher / lower car sales move the stock. They do not. They just serve the purpose of media attention and commentary. Tesla’s price performance relies on two components: 1️⃣ Its high sensitivity to global liquidity for risk assets and 2️⃣ investors’ sentiment towards Elon’s Robotaxi / Optimus vision. The chart below is the G5 (US, China, EU, UK, Japan) M2 Money Supply (in USD) vs Tesla’s stock, with an 11 week lag. We see striking similarity between the directional moves of the money supply and TSLA. The sharp pullback we have seen TSLA experience follows the drop in G5 M2 Money Supply that started in September. 🚨 We are still going through the negative impact from late December - early January trough due to the USD strength. This lagging impact can last into early April for TSLA. However, we must note that the impact is more of a directional one - we can’t purely rely on the chart for predicting the magnitude of TSLA’s price changes.