I am a Christian who dislikes both political parties and believes the majority of politicians are corrupt.
White Mountains of Arizona.
Joined November 2021
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Timothy Nugent retweeted
I have noticed something interesting. A good way to tell if you are a victim of propaganda is if you repeatedly put words in someone else's mouth.
For example, someone makes a simple true statement such as "the oil shock will be temporary." You then immediately and wrongly assume the other person's political beliefs and make the worst possible interpretation of that statement based upon your own worldview.
You call them a "retard" a "bot" and dozens of other insults when in realty, you are a victim of propaganda which forced an instinctual emptional response from you rather than a logical one.
I have noticed something interesting. A good way to tell if you are a victim of propaganda is if you repeatedly put words in someone else's mouth.
For example, someone makes a simple true statement such as "the oil shock will be temporary." You then immediately and wrongly assume the other person's political beliefs and make the worst possible interpretation of that statement based upon your own worldview.
You call them a "retard" a "bot" and dozens of other insults when in realty, you are a victim of propaganda which forced an instinctual emptional response from you rather than a logical one.
Here you go, the first pic is of Enoch 1, the second of Jude. 14-15. An almost perfect word for word quote.
Timothy Nugent retweeted
Iran bombed three ships in the Strait of Hormuz, ensuring it is closed again. Trump, in response, said that the ceasefire is unlikely to be extended and we will have to start dropping bombs again.
There is no deal, everything Trump tweeted on Friday was a lie to pump the market and drop oil futures so he could make hundreds of millions. That is why we have over 50,000 sailors and marines now in the region, ready for when things escalate.
The ceasefire was a timeout because logistics takes weeks to move boats across the globe. Expect gas prices to rise another dollar by Memorial day and diesel to rise another dollar fifty.
Iran bombed three ships in the Strait of Hormuz, ensuring it is closed again. Trump, in response, said that the ceasefire is unlikely to be extended and we will have to start dropping bombs again.
There is no deal, everything Trump tweeted on Friday was a lie to pump the market and drop oil futures so he could make hundreds of millions. That is why we have over 50,000 sailors and marines now in the region, ready for when things escalate.
The ceasefire was a timeout because logistics takes weeks to move boats across the globe. Expect gas prices to rise another dollar by Memorial day and diesel to rise another dollar fifty.
Timothy Nugent retweeted
Yes, but it's more complicated.
Oil futures are artificially suppressed because of people shorting them. Shorts only last until expiration, where they person who took out the short is forced to buy it back.
This is called a short squeeze.
What will happen, is, when no one is willing to sell oil to them at $90 a barrel, they will be forced to buy it back immediately at $140, the current physical price. WTI futures immediately jump $50 overnight, and unless new shorts are taken out, drive oil up to $175 or $200 a barrel.
In other words, we temporarily have the appearance of relief, without any actual relief.
Timothy Nugent retweeted
"Oil is below $100."
That's the Brent futures price for June delivery. A financial contract.
Physical Forties crude (actual barrels, prompt delivery), hit $148 this week, an all-time record.
Those are the prices refineries and traders are actually paying in the real world.
That's a $50 gap between the headline price and the physical price.
The dislocation between the paper oil price and the physical oil price has never been greater.
The US Interior Secretary confirmed the government has discussed using futures market intervention to suppress oil prices.
Coincidence or not?
Timothy Nugent retweeted
Searched recent X posts for physical spot prices today. Users report:
Dated Brent physical spot: $140+ (posts at 12:23 GMT and 13:03 GMT).
Brent spot: $132.46 (earlier today).
WTI cash/spot: ~$140-150 range cited amid backwardation vs. futures (~$95-100).
Claims tie to tight physical supply; no new official benchmark post in past hour. Futures align closer to $91 WTI / $94 Brent as previously noted.
Timothy Nugent retweeted
"You don't like Trump's second term? So you're saying Kamala should have been President?"
No, asshole. If dad gets drunk and crashes the family car into a tree, it doesn't mean the family dog would be better at driving.
Please correct me if I am wrong.
We spent $35 billion in military equipment to bomb Iran. Then, had to bribe Iran with $6 billion just to get them to agree to a ceasefire, where Hormuz isn't even open because it was mined and Iran doesn't know where the mines are.
Now, Trump is spending even more time and money clearing the straight that was open before we attacked Iran. Iran is still funding terrorists, still has enriched uranium, and is still awful.
Now, they know they can hold the world hostage with the straight of Hormuz.
Do I have the 6D chess right? Is this winning?
FYI, I'm not a democrat, I even voted for Trump 3 times. I'm glad he got the border mostly under control, but his foreign policy this term is awful. I wish it were more like the first term.
Prosecute Epstien's client list!
This scenario is a perfect opportunity for arbitrage. Oil futures have been manipulated lower, despite less oil being produced and shipped per day.
Even if some miracle happens this weekend and the conflict is over, physical oil will remain elevated for months. Too much infrastructure was damaged.
Companies will also horde oil in case another shortage appears. They will buy more than they need, which will lead to higher prices for longer.
Timothy Nugent retweeted
I don't see how.
Isreal wants no ceasefire.
Iran won't give up it's enriched uranium(I don’t believe Trump's post)
Iran's only leverage is keeping oil expensive.
I see only 2 ways out:
1. Trump pulls out, claims victory, gives them what they want, and pays off Iran. He looks weak and that is definitely the USA losing.
2. Boots on the ground invasion plus draft. This would lead to tens or possibly hundreds of thousands dead.
3. Delay like he is now for months, long enough for the CIA/military to arm locals and organize them to overthrow the regime.
All bad options.
The world is worse off for it.
As I expected, Isreal will not honor the ceasefire and neither will Iran. According to Iran, the straight of Hormuz is closed again. Despite this non-event, oil futures are down from $115 to $95 and are holding while stocks are up 2% to 3%.
Don't expect this to last.
Oil futures(WTI & Brent) will climb higher and surpass $120 a barrel by the end of April, which will confirm a global recession for the second half of this year. Less than 10% of money is positioned for a recession, which means the downside move will be swift.
Bonds will continue to perform poorly until this Fall, when stocks fall off a cliff. I expect the bottom in November, where I will buy the dip in TQQQ. The Fed will likely return to 0% FFR and QE in December or January.
The cycle repeats.
I want to say that I want Trump's efforts in the Middle East to succeed, not fail. However, I don't see a way that he can extract himself from this horrible position.
Isreal will not abide by any terms set for a ceasefire or peace agreement. Iran's leadership is fractured, so they also can not abide by any terms. At this point, even if the Supreme Leader agreed to peace, the IRCG would ignore the stand down command and keep attacking.
The market is rallying and oil is down on the hopium that oil will begin to flow, but they are ignoring the impossibility of that. Too much infrastructure has been damaged, and Iran keeps shutting down Hormuz.
At best, it will be months before a barrel of oil drops below $80. More likely, it will surge past $120 over the next two weeks as people finally realize there never was a ceasefire or a reopening of Hormuz.
At this point, a global recession is essentially gaurunteed.
The stock market is recovering from its earlier low and is already pricing in the Trump TACO. Oil is falling, because everyone assumes Trump will extend the deadline indefinitely, regardless of his rhetoric.
If Trump actually follows through on his threats, I expect the market to drop over 3% tomorrow and oil futures to rise above $120.
The chances of this happening, however, are very low.