@TobyMGData

Politics obsessed Wisconsinite, digging into the data. A progressive, punster patriot defeating bad guys in 17 of the last 21 statewide elections. he/him

Joined April 2022
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759Media
What to expect on Election Night: Central Count Edition While we don't know who will win or by how much, there are some things we can easily predict about Election Night. Since the conspiracy theorists love to talk about scary Milwaukee vote dumps late at night as evidence of
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Milwaukee hasn’t posted but from the state system it looks like almost 1,100 new requests (was 809 on the same Sunday four years ago). Nearly 2500 statewide- almost nowhere has Sunday voting (was 2,300 in 2022) Madison has been in contention in some spring elections but
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Milwaukee will almost certainly cast more absentee votes in this election.
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He doesn’t know much about winning elections, and he clearly doesn’t know what midterm electorates tend to look like. Just an embarrassing person all around.
Adam Jarchow
@AdamJarchow12h
Crowley is King of turning out old, boomer yuppies. His campaign should be sponsored by Ensure!
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Madison puts up 339 IPAV today, 320 in 2022
City of Madison, Wisconsin
@CityofMadison14h
Absentee voting stats for October 25, 2026: ✅ Absentees Issued: 38,565 ✅ Absentees Returned: 28,963 ✅ In-Person Absentee Voters: 13,541 ✅ Total Registered Voters: 192,418
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Milwaukee has posted yesterday’s numbers today, but not today’s (yet?) Just a hair behind Madison and it’s pretty much all gravy since so few places have weekend voting. Additionally, 75 voters were registered and 31 mail ballots were dropped off.
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For reference, the number was 1,071 on the same Saturday in 2022. This might be enough to push Milwaukee County past 2022 levels in tomorrow’s report, and that’s without Tosa’s 25x increase (10 to 250) from 2022.
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Small update, now just OVER 8k statewide, Milwaukee jumps to ~1800 so it will be a close race with Madison today for IPAV
Toby MG@TobyMGDataOct 25
Looks like a bit under 8k new requests in the system. Early voting very limited on weekends so no comparison to other days this year. But we know about 1800 are from Madison. According to this, about 1750 in the City of Milwaukee. Another 800 from the rest of Dane and ~725
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Looks like a bit under 8k new requests in the system. Early voting very limited on weekends so no comparison to other days this year. But we know about 1800 are from Madison. According to this, about 1750 in the City of Milwaukee. Another 800 from the rest of Dane and ~725
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rivaling much larger cities in those WOW municipalities, but really with 2/3 of the vote coming from Milwaukee/Dane the IPAV is at least a bit bluer now than it was yesterday.
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Just checked and this is way up from about 4.5k votes on the Saturday in 2022 but way lower than the 19k votes in 2024
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Looks like we’ll probably get the state system update before Milwaukee updates (if they do tonight)
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I’m not gonna say I got them to post, but… Regardless, this amounts to 1,797 IPAV and some heroic person processing 160 mail ballots on a weekend. Definitely a drop from Friday but pretty huge for a weekend. This should get Madison to about 97% of 2022
City of Madison, Wisconsin
@CityofMadisonOct 24
Absentee voting stats for October 24, 2026: ✅ Absentees Issued: 38,236 ✅ Absentees Returned: 28,282 ✅ In-Person Absentee Voters: 13,202 ✅ Total Registered Voters: 192,407
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All Milwaukee IPAV locations closed by 4:30 and all of the @CityofMadison ones closed by 5 so we may see numbers at some point soon.
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turnout to overcome a likely Democratic firewall built off of a big to huge advantage with mail ballots (and so far an apparent significant one with IPAV as well based on geography alone). IPAV may get more conservative as we move forward but it started out strong for the GOP in
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They need to improve significantly over 2022 AND not lose any (relative) ground from 2024 in order to hold onto a winning coalition. If the election were held today, with only the ballots in, David Crowley would win in a landslide and Democrats would likely win a solid trifecta
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But it isn't- there are still eight more days of IPAV (four of them weekend days limited mainly to big blue cities) and ten more days for mail ballots to arrive. Things can and do shift, but, based on these numbers alone, I'd rather be the Democrats in Wisconsin right now.
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it is in. Applying 2022 results to the current ballots, Dems would have 59% of the total mail and IPAV vote so far. By 2024 results, they would have 57%. Remembering that these are conservative estimates (out of whack with recent spring elections where the WOW counties in
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particular performed better for Democrats) this is a very strong geographic distribution of ballots for Democrats at the moment. Overall, these numbers can't tell us who is going to win, but they do say that Republicans are likely going to be a lot more reliant on Election Day
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IPAV retention varies wildly, and that's important because IPAV in MKE/Dane are almost as blue as mail while it tends to be much redder in redder areas. Milwaukee/Dane's 66% IPAV retention from 2024 compared to Rest of State's 49% is huge in terms of evaluating changes from
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I applied a simple formula- comparing to 2022 and 2024 results in each county, I applied a +10% to mail ballots (so mail ballots in a 50-50 county go 60-40, probably closer to +15 but we'll be safe) and applied partisanship directly to IPAV- so it is as red or blue as the county
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