Thomas Mairs

🚨 SUMMARY: The OBR forecasts following John Healey's Budget - Welfare spending will rise to £431.3bn by 2030/31 - an increase of £97.5bn a year in cash terms - This includes £209.8bn on pensioner benefits, £110.7bn on Universal Credit, £69.6bn on disability benefits, £13.9bn on Child Benefit and £27.2bn on other welfare - Inflation will peak at 3.75% in early 2027, up from the earlier prediction of 2% - UK GDP growth will slow from around 1.25% in 2026 to 1% in 2027, before climbing to 1.6% in 2031 - Average UK unemployment will rise to 5.1% across 2026 and 2027 - The Employment Rights Act will "likely" have a negative economic impact because of reduced flexibility and greater uncertainty for businesses - The landlord tax increases (property income) could contribute to a long-term rise in private rents and discourage landlords from entering the market - Real household disposable income per person will be around 0.75% lower in 2030-31 than it expected in March 2026 - Higher earnings and frozen tax thresholds will increase income tax and National Insurance receipts by £9bn in 2026-27 and around £8bn on average in subsequent forecast years compared with March - Net migration is forecast to fall to 120,000 in the year to mid-2026, then gradually rise to 230,000 by the year to mid-2031 - Nominal weekly earnings growth will slow to around 3.5% in 2026, then average roughly 2.25% a year - Andy Burnham's first-time buyer scheme could raise house prices by increasing demand without enough new homes being built