Tony

The $8 Aster Thesis Why: $ASTER is the best way CZ can take market share from @HyperliquidX — name a better vehicle or method than a competing perp DEX and chain. For this thesis — you need to believe CZ cares deeply about dampening Hyperliquid's rise — that the growth of Hyperliquid categorically means the decay of Binance — that liquidity begets liquidity and there can only be one king. Now if CZ — much richer and experienced than Jeff — has the motive, how will he attempt to take down Hype with Aster? How: Making users money leads to loyal users — Aster becomes an up-only PVE asset that can only be acquired by bridging to CZ's chain — similar to Hype's initial $1Bn+ airdrop and lack of venues to acquire $HYPE outside of their DEX. Hyperliquid has no VCs — Aster has only one: CZ's own fund (YZi Labs) that imo is calling the shots and controlling the coin. Supply control — I calculate 85%-90%+ of Aster tokens (including APX) are controlled by the team — running a coin to $64Bn to flip Hype with less than 15% float would be hard but not impossible, especially for CZ — he can probably make the $ back from MM'ing $ASTER on Binance and Aster itself, ironically, thanks to its hidden order flow feature. Along the price ride up, more believers will pile in to help make the run easier until everyone realizes the objective and hodls for dear life — never bet against one of the most powerful, resourceful and motivated men in history with one goal in mind: to defeat his only real competitor. Hyperliquid has 99% buybacks — Aster has CZ's wallet. When: With Hyperliquid hitting ATH's and other competitors launching coins soon (e.g. A16Z's Lighter, Amber's edgeX) — the time is now through the end of the year to change the narrative, imo. My bet is through making ATH's week over week. Risks: Yes, Hyperliquid's product is better (I'm a big fan) but Aster's isn't dogshit — it works and has some unique features (e.g. 1001x leverage, hidden orders, grid trading, RWA's, etc) that can be further improved on. Aster is also coming out with its own chain soon — BSC 2.0? Yes, this trade falls apart if I'm wrong about CZ's strategy or he simply does not care about HL. However — Aster is also still 3x+ smaller FDV-wise than OKX's perp DEX competitor MYX Finance — It should at least flip $MYX — which does 5x less volumes and even less in fees. Comparing the most liquid pairs (BTC, ETH), Aster is already doing 1/6 Hyperliquid's volumes. No need to compare to Avantis — Aster also has a pooled perp model called Simple Mode that enables 1001x leverage (vs $AVNT's 500x) and already has more TVL ($18M vs $16.8M). The eventual dump may not occur — most won't hold through this 10x opportunity and will get off the train on the way to Valhalla — new believers will come in at $1.25, $2, all the way to $8. If $ASTER flips $HYPE — the target and narrative may shift to flipping $BNB — ironically what $HYPE is supposed to do. CZ probably would rather flip himself than have someone else flip him. Lastly — if Aster price keeps ascending, users keep bridging, liquidity and MM's keep flowing, additional features keep rolling, token incentives keep dropping, mobile installs keep growing (yes they have a mobile app), 3rd party apps start building — then maybe, just maybe Aster actually flips Hyperliquid in usage too. But the above doesn't need to be true for $8 Aster imo. I won't even mention Aster's competing Ethena stablecoin product. CZ said 4 — but let's double it.