Trader. Illogic hater. Bias annihilator.
United States
Joined October 2025
- Tweets1.3K
- Following2.3K
- Followers346
- Likes4.9K
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Wonder how yields react should measured inflation come down meaningfully due to changes in methodology. "Inflation" is not a physical reality but socially defined by what is included in the reference basket and respective weights. Ofc, we have changed methodologies before as well
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What an absolutely idiotic line of argument
States can, and do, tax derivatives and commodities trading however the hell they please. NC is no different
Who are these hacks? Why do you parrot their points as if they arent total garbage, and yet trash PM’s points readily? Hmm….
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"Hi DR it's Sarah Rogers, want a scoop sent via my personal device?"
"Holy shit, is this espionage?"
"It's a scoop, I'm giving you info"
"You want me to leak this and go to prison!"
"I'm giving it to you, wouldn't I be the leaker?"
"The Deep State is trying to lock me up!"
"..."
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The bond market is “a very unfair system.”
Trump: We could have GDP of 10, 12, 15 times if they just leave us alone. Let interest rates go down. It’s a very unfair system.
They should drop interest rates because it means we have a strong country and it's all based on credit, meaning good credit, and we have the best credit and we'd pay off the debt very easily, very quickly.
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If the Fed hikes this week, is that bearish bonds because the Fed is more worried about inflation than we thought, or bullish because they are getting ahead of the curve? If only there was some way they could tell us, you know, through some form of foward-looking guidance. Amazing that no CB has ever come up with a solution to this problem. Oh well...😉
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"you're 8 months behind on chipotle klarna payments because you've been saving up for the spacex ipo?"
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Kalshi's first example of a small business using it as hedging tool is The Jeffrey, an NYC bar that's promising free drinks to all customers if New York Knicks wins NBA Finals Game 1 on Wednesday
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Enhanced Games but it’s Tiger Woods faded on Percocet vs John Daly loaded on 15 Jack & Cokes
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Presenting the song of the year: The Ballad of the Onion Man. Please enjoy this original composition by our band of concerned citizens.
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Leveraging FEC Data to screen campaign staff:
Last week, NPR reported on several anonymous campaign staffers who claimed they had profited from trades they made on prediction markets which were placed ahead of polling drops for the campaigns they worked on. The reporting didn’t say which prediction market they traded on, but at Kalshi, campaign staff have always been prohibited from trading in election markets.
All markets are subject to 24/7 surveillance on Kalshi, and we are conducting investigations and enforcement as usual. We also go beyond policing insider trading and try to preemptively block potential insiders from trading where possible. To that end, our team has ingested available data from the Federal Election Commission and is actively screening salaried federal campaign employees from trading on a campaign that they work for. This data helps us prevent or detect trading by campaign insiders. We plan to process similar data published at the state level where it’s available and block state campaign staff from trading on campaigns they’ve been associated with, too.
Let me be abundantly clear: we police all kinds of insider trading and market manipulation at Kalshi. Congress is also considering a law specifically criminalizing campaign staff from trading on their own campaigns – but we aren’t waiting for additional legislation or regulation to take action on market integrity. If we find this type of activity on our platform, it will be referred to law enforcement and subject to exchange disciplinary action.
I encourage all traders to heed the repeated warnings from companies like Kalshi, and from the CFTC and DOJ: engaging in insider or manipulative trading on federal exchanges can get you into serious trouble, and we are continuously working to prevent, detect, and punish it where we find it.
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Kalshi raised $1B at a $22B valuation led by Coatue, with participation from Morgan Stanley, Sequoia, a16z, and others.
In 2018, we were two kids who loved math, markets, and debate. And we had a dream: build the next generation financial market, where we capture a broader set of questions and harness the power of the masses to price them better than Wall Street.
Kalshi was born to fulfill that dream.
Today, most of these questions are traded indirectly, priced through imprecise proxies or negotiated bilaterally in opaque, restricted, relationship-driven markets. But thanks to our incredible community of users who make our markets work, Kalshi has the opportunity to change that by turning historically fragmented and untradeable risk into open, liquid, and standardized markets.
We’ve seen this movie before. When interest rates, currencies, commodities, and crypto moved from dark to lit markets, volume did not just migrate: access expanded, new use cases emerged, and the opportunity grew by orders of magnitude.
Today, Kalshi represents over 90% of US prediction market volume and the majority of activity globally, with annualized volume growing to $178B over the past 6 months.
What started as retail is quickly becoming institutional — hedge funds, asset managers, prop firms, and insurers are beginning to trade, provide liquidity, and hedge real-world risk directly. The scope and scale of prediction markets are just beginning to take shape.
We’re using this new capital to accelerate the institutional adoption underway — unlocking trillions in capital to facilitate active trading and risk management.
Prediction markets are moving from early adoption to core financial infrastructure. This is just the beginning.
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Bernie Sanders, 84, makes as many shots here (4) as the Orlando Magic did in the second half last night
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This is exactly why we have regulated onshore prediction market platforms that follow American law.
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🚨Nice upgrade for Prediction Markets on the Terminal: All @Kalshi data is now streaming in real-time!⚡️
We’ve also updated our feeds to reflect true daily contract volume, unlocking powerful new intraday functionality to track liquidity and sentiment second-by-second.
To see why this matters, take a look at the "US Recession in 2026?" market. The implied probability of a recession has been falling sharply, dropping from highs near 34% earlier this week down to just 20% this morning.
Because we now capture true daily volume alongside real-time pricing, you can map out exactly how and when these shifts happen. The chart below is a Volume at Time study loaded in IVAT <GO>, showing the exact intraday volume profile as the recession odds drop.
Check out the new real-time feeds on the Terminal today! MOSP<GO>, WSL PREDICT<GO>, WSL ELECMAP<GO>, etc... 📉📊
