value (jane street arc)

Was so obvious this was a KOL-led nothing.

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Oh wait so this means Pearl mining directly becomes a national security issue 🤔. Way moreso than the Bitcoin SoftWar thesis. What a wild technology.

I've enjoyed Jake's coverage on Pearl. Even though I am bullish I think his criticisms are fair, I also think we have more common ground than it appears. Specifically: -Pearl's emission schedule is the number 1 bear case. A key aspect of a SOV asset is that price goes up, which is harder if you have indiscriminate sellers. -Concerns around transparency are also valid. Without a "fundamental" business / revenue line, narrative is the main driver of price. An absence of clear communication leads to uncertainty and doubt, which is detrimental to an asset that derives its value from social consensus. However, on the actual nature of the raise I disagree that it's bearish or leads to a conflict of interest: To me, token-equity concerns arise for revenue generating protocols, where value accrual is unclear as it is either diluted or completely given to equity holders that act as a senior tranche, with token holders suffering. Pearl Labs' equity raise causes no conflict of interest since the distinction is clear: Pearl is a SOV asset, while Pearl Labs is an AI infrastructure company that develops Pearl's proof-of-useful-work technology and commercializes inference services. Pearl Labs' success is accretive to the Pearl ecosystem but never extractive, since Pearl is not intended to accrue revenue. If anything the equity raise means 1) Pearl Labs is not reliant on selling PRL to fund operations, 2) it signifies there are powerful forces behind the success of PRL and 3) the raise will add hashrate to the PRL network. Very strongly disagree that Pearl Labs should introduce PRL buybacks. It would be the quickest way to add a token/equity conflict, as it immediately creates the question of how much value accrues to Pearl Labs vs the token. It also instantly reframes Pearl from an asset trading at 1/30th of ZEC's valuation to an overvalued 1000x P/S token. This is the counterintuitive thing about SOV assets: Flows >>> buybacks, even for huge revenue generating projects like HYPE (although buybacks matter a lot for narrative). Removing a business and letting an asset trade purely as an expression of an idea (e.g. AI BTC) removes company specific and execution risk, stops anchoring the token to a business that needs to grow in line with the price, and also removes its ceiling. The second controversial point is around centralization and the team mining 5% for themselves. Controversially, I think centralization matters less than people think, even for SOVs. Take MicroStrategy / Bitmine as examples. What matters is centralization among team/VCs who are going to sell. If the team mining a significant amount of tokens means those tokens are effectively out of circulation, I view this as bullish rather than bearish. Of course, this only holds true as long as they don't sell. Lastly I think it's important to contextualize that a lot of my bullishness comes from a regret minimization framework. Pearl is a nascent SOV, and the concerns around emissions / transparency are very valid. However, it is also one of the most exciting narratives. Just like there is a future where Pearl is insta dumped by institutions that mine it at a low cost basis, there is a future where powerful BTC miners and connected entities rally behind PRL as a new way to monetize their compute through inference, while hashrate increases and fears continue to grow around BTC's security budget. Thats why, while I see the same risks as Jake, I think that potential of exponential upside does justify a small position, even if just as a hedge to existing BTC/ZEC holdings.

bullish on sov for retards