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October's US jobless-rate market prices 4.2% at 46 cents. The 3-month average rounds to 4.1%.
Latest print and trend point at different buckets.
Sept U-3: 4.2%
Jul-Sep avg: 4.13%
4.1% bucket: 28.5 cents
The 6 Nov print settles it.
thetradersspread.com/predict…
US feed barley fell 55 cents in three months. Malting barley rose 16 cents.
Same grain, two markets.
Feed: $4.41 to $3.86 a bushel (May-Aug)
Malt: $5.70 to $5.86
GB barley area: 930,000 ha, lowest since 2010
And the US crop is down 19% to 116M bushels.
thetradersspread.com/commodi…
EUR/CZK barely moved in a year. USD/CZK rose 4.24%.
Same Czech National Bank, different leg.
EUR/CZK: 24.323 to 24.369 (+0.19%)
EUR/USD: 1.1640 to 1.1188 (-3.88%)
CNB two-week repo: 3.75%
The article's bear case aims at 24.25; above 24.55 it is wrong.
thetradersspread.com/forex-c…
$AERO shows a $1.417B fully diluted value and a $0 market cap on one CoinGecko page.
Circulating supply is blank, not zero.
Price $0.665
1-yr range $0.302-$1.188
100 AERO locked 1 yr = 25 veAERO
The myths start at the data page.
thetradersspread.com/crypto/…
$VRT rose 2.81% Monday on a fluid-services deal, still 5.83% under the 21 Oct close.
The bounce didn't undo the drop.
22 Oct: -7.81% to $195.59
Monday: $199.78
Volume 5.53M vs 8.43M on the selloff
Still 47.4% under the May high.
thetradersspread.com/stocks/…
China's coking coal fell 9.6% in two weeks. Read as a steel-demand signal, it isn't one.
Coke fell with it and rebar rose.
Coking coal 2,232.1 yuan, -9.6%
Coke -9.5%, ratio 1.177 vs 1.178
Rebar +0.4%
One low-sulphur grade, not a demand break.
thetradersspread.com/commodi…
Curve's 3pool is meant to hold three stablecoins in balance. It holds mostly one.
USDT is 71.65% of $159.9M.
DAI 14.22%, USDC 14.13%
Amplification A = 4,000
Swap fee 0.015%, all to admin
The curve flattens the price, not the imbalance.
thetradersspread.com/crypto/…
The Cleveland Fed's Core PCE nowcast is 3.05%, dead on the line between two buckets.
The market isn't splitting it evenly.
3.1% bucket: 49%
3.0% bucket: 28.5%
Core CPI-PCE gap narrowed 0.6 to 0.45 pts
A coin flip priced like a lean. Resolves Oct 29.
thetradersspread.com/predict…
$CRWD jumped 8.25% Friday and now trades above the analysts' own average target.
The rally overshot the desks.
Close $257.57 on six-session-high volume
Avg target $247.25 from 53 analysts
10.25% under the $286.99 high
Targets have to chase now.
thetradersspread.com/stocks/…
EUR/TRY at 55.67 looks like it has already run.
The inflation gap says the crawl isn't done.
Turkish CPI 29.73% vs euro-area 3.8%
Flat real rate by 31 March: ~61.4
Bull 62.50, base 60.00, bear 51.50
A break under 53.00 ends the base case.
thetradersspread.com/forex-c…
The Traders Spread retweeted
US rough rice futures sit above $16.00/cwt, the highest since July 2024.
The farm price hasn't followed.
Season-average farm price $15.20/cwt
Mid-South cash $14.75-$15.00
Crop 157.7M cwt vs 206.7M, stocks -31.5%
The smaller crop moved stocks, not use.
theindustryspread.com/rough-…
The Traders Spread retweeted
$SNDK reports Thursday against a $44-46 EPS guide.
Western Digital beat and guided higher. Shares still fell.
Close $1,238.03, after an 8.5% drop
Options price an 8-14% move
52-week range $146 to $2,354
A beat is no longer the bar.
financefeeds.com/sandisk-snd…
Ondo's OUSG is sold as tokenized Treasuries.
Most of it is other tokenized funds.
OUSG value $319.4M
State Street SWEEP 47.5%, BlackRock BUIDL 32%
USDY: $2.37B TVL, 4.06% yield to maturity
The wrapper holds wrappers.
thetradersspread.com/crypto/…
Paris rapeseed has two prices for the same seed on the same afternoon.
The gap isn't a shortage signal.
Nov 2026: €511.75/t, 677 lots
Feb 2027: €549.50/t, 9,214 lots
Ukraine: 44.7% of EU imports since July
The €37.75 is carry, not panic.
thetradersspread.com/commodi…
$AXP raised full-year guidance and posted record revenue on Friday.
The shares fell 3.67% anyway.
Revenue $20.1B, +9%
Adjusted EPS $4.68, +13%
Marketing expense +11%, faster than revenue
The session priced the bill for growth, not the growth.
thetradersspread.com/stocks/…
$JTO is a $234M token on Solana's MEV pipe.
The tip doesn't go where most think.
8 tip accounts, 1,000-lamport minimum
Auctions every 50ms, ranked by tip per compute unit
6% fee off MEV before validators get paid
The DAO's cut: 5.7% of all tips.
thetradersspread.com/crypto/…
Polymarket's October CPI contract settles on the first print.
The catch: BLS may not publish that print at all.
October 2025 index missing after the shutdown
Release set for 10 Nov, 8:30am ET
Core 2.6% leg at 90.5c
thetradersspread.com/predict…
Naphtha rose 2.90% to $942.76 a tonne on crude's big day.
Crude led the day. Naphtha led the month.
Month: naphtha +12.43%, Brent +9.49%
12 months: +78.81% vs Brent +79.02%
US gas fell 5.58% the same session
thetradersspread.com/commodi…
EUR/PLN just printed its highest fixing in a year at 4.3945.
The zloty still carries the better yield.
NBP 3.75% vs ECB 2.50%
Real gap ~0.95pt in Poland's favour
Implied USD/PLN +11.45% since January
Bull 4.58, bear 4.22.
thetradersspread.com/forex-c…
$CAT and Deere trade about $41 apart. Their quarters don't.
The backlog is the comparison, not the price.
Q2 revenue $20.5B vs Deere $12.6B
Firm backlog ~$72.1B, +$9.4B in a quarter
North America: $3.24B of the $3.97B gain
thetradersspread.com/stocks/…
