The $APP Thesis in One Post: 1. Fundamentals • Revenue: $1.924B (+53% YoY) | Management guided 20%–30%+ baseline CAGR • Adj. EBITDA Margin: 84% ($1.614B) • Free Cash Flow: $863.3M • Diluted EPS: $3.76 (+57% YoY) 2. Valuation • Forward P/E: ~14x • P/S (NTM): 15x 3. The Core Business / MOAT • MAX (The Supply Moat & Fee Arbitrage): AppLovin owns MAX, the core mediation layer controlling mobile app ad supply. When external DSPs (like Meta or Google) bid on inventory, they are charged standard platform mediation fees (5%–15%) and bid blindly with delayed feedback loops. Because AppLovin owns the pipe, they don’t charge themselves fees. This zero-friction advantage lowers Axon’s net clearing cost threshold, allowing them to submit the highest net-clearing bid and win high-value impressions while capturing sub-100ms real-time auction telemetry. • AXON (The Compounding AI Demand Engine): Running directly on top of MAX’s live telemetry, Axon 2.0 evaluates 2.5M+ requests/sec across a single unified auction layer. Instead of selling brand awareness, it operates on a pure pay-for-performance/ROAS model. High-frequency deep learning predicts conversion value with unmatched precision creating a closed data flywheel where every impression won improves future model accuracy. • AppLovin Ads (The Open Self-Serve Inflection): AppLovin has generated billions in run-rate revenue while operating as a restricted, managed-only platform for a small pool of accounts. With AppLovin Ads now open globally via self-serve and direct Shopify integrations, millions of DTC merchants, web apps, and autonomous AI media buyers can deploy spend programmatically on demand with zero onboarding friction. Fundamentals ✅ Valuation ✅ Core Business ✅ Im long $APP

$APP AppLovin is +8% today. It’s still undervalued.

Aria is entirely correct. This is an official chart published by AppLovin related to population growth vs. audience growth. Mobile gamers almost perfectly mirror the general U.S. population across every age bracket and gender split. These aren't just kids; they are everyday American adults, professionals, homeowners, and core consumers working full-time jobs. When you buy mobile gaming inventory through AppLovin, you are buying high-intent, mass-market consumer reach that directly scales across mainstream America. $APP

Let’s remember this chart in a year. • EPS: $3.76 (57% YoY) • Stock Price: -50% drawdown. $APP

“Even on a lower budget if you crack it right you can get good results.” This advertiser spent $15k in the span of 7 days and the campaign averaged a 169.82% D0 ROAS and a 216.14% D7 ROAS. In other words; $15k in ad spend returned $33k of ad spend. $APP

Here we go… Keep in mind the last time rates increased was July 2023.

“Less than 1% of advertisers in the world use @AppLovin yet we have north of $11B of annual ad spend on the platform and reach over a billion users daily.” — Rafael Vivas, Growth Marketing I mean how are you not bullish… $APP

AppLovin’s EBITDA has grown 10-fold over the past 5 years. 2026’s projections: 50%-55% YoY ($6.8B–$7B). Declining growth is not a bad thing, its normal. We're talking about a company still growing at 50% YoY while having FCF margins of 65%. it’s pure operating leverage. $APP

Morgan Stanley has reiterated their AppLovin price target. BUY: $650 -> $450 That’s a 34% increase from today’s price. $APP

$APP - 33 Analysts 20 -> Strong Buy 6 -> Buy 7 -> Hold Average Price Target $508 - thats a 52% increase from today’s price.

AppLovin is +11% in the last 3 trading days. Is the market starting to catch on? $APP

$NFLX When a company blatantly says they're doubling advertising revenue YoY, you pay attention. • Ad revenue scaling 100% from $1.5B to $3.0B • Advertiser base up +70% YoY (>4,000 active clients) • Ad-tier captures over 60% of new sign-ups in active markets • High-margin programmatic platform + live sports driving premium CPMs The market still views Netflix as a mature streaming subscription.

AppLovin's AXON pixels continue to climb. +3.27% WoW. An AXON Pixel is a tracking snippet placed on e-commerce storefronts to log checkout events and purchase values. This conversion telemetry feeds directly back into AppLovin’s AI bidding models, validating merchant ROAS and sharpening predictive ad targeting across the network. Pixels increase > model gets smarter > ROAS improves $APP

$META Do you see the disconnect? • Revenue: $60B (27% YoY) • Forward P/E: 17x (4 year lows)

The average social feed losses users in 1.2 seconds.  AppLovin delivers full-screen interstitial and rewarded video ads with a 35-second average watch time.  That’s high quality impressions being fed directly into a predictive AI model delivering enterprises high ROAS. $APP

"In December, we reached a run rate of roughly $1 billion a year of gross advertiser spend in the e-commerce category alone from around 600 customers." — Adam Foroughi, CEO of AppLovin Think about it, if 600 advertisers generated a $1B run rate in gross spend, meaning an average of $1.6M spend. That volume occurred under strict spend minimums and manual onboarding bottlenecks. Expanding their services to self-serve tools opens the exact same performance engine to hundreds of thousands of merchants. Let the flywheel spin. $APP

Context vs. Noise on $APP: What the market sees: Operating cash flow growth slowed down to 58%. The reality: AppLovin is printing $4.5B in trailing cash flow at ~84% EBITDA margins. Percentage growth normalizes; the cash engine keeps expanding.

$APP At the Nasdaq Investor Conference, AppLovin management outlined what a 10-year, 25% annual growth trajectory looks like: • Over $200 Billion in gross advertiser spend • Over $70 Billion in net platform revenue • Operating inside a $1 Trillion+ global digital ad TAM Reaching $200B+ in gross media spend means AppLovin only needs to capture roughly ~15% to 20% of global performance ad budgets. They currenttly capture around ~1% of budgets.

AppLovin is trading at 3-year valuation lows of 24x P/FCF, yet printing $2.5B more in annual Free Cash Flow. $APP

$APP AppLovin revenue re-accelerated to 53% YoY in Q2 and paces near 47% in Q3. Even if growth cuts in half, you still hold a business printing 84% Adjusted EBITDA margins. When 84 cents of every revenue dollar drops straight to EBITDA, you do not need hyper-growth to compound cash.

$APP Citi just placed an "upside 90-day short-term view" on AppLovin. BUY -> $600 Price Target Jason Bazinet calls market concerns around Q3 outlook "misguided," noting AppLovin is well positioned to meet or exceed expectations. A $600 PT implies nearly 90% upside.