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Florida’s migration reversal is getting ugly.
Tampa, Orlando, and Miami all lost population in Q2 2026.
In fact - Orlando and Miami lost more people than New York.
Not only has Florida's pandemic migration surge dropped off, locals are leaving and some of the state's biggest
U.S. homebuyer demand has fallen so far that pending sales are now worse than 2008.
In August 2026, the NAR pending sale index registered at 71.2.
Lower than during any period of the 2008-2011 crash.
1) Pending sales today turn into closed sales in the next 1-2 months, indicating the housing market is going to be very weak heading into the fall.
There's many sellers who have been waiting to cut prices, thinking a recovery is going to take place.
Major housing deflation is taking place in the homebuilding sector.
Lennar, the 2nd largest builder in America, has now cut net prices 30% from the pandemic peak.
Dropping from $511,000 in 2022
to $359,000 in Q3 2026.
1) Lennar is leading the charge on reducing prices, cutting more than any other large builder.
Overall, the home building sector has cut gross prices nearly 15% from the peak in 2022 through 2026.
While the re-sale market continues to experience rising prices.
U.S. Mortgage Applications just fell back to the lowest level since 1995.
And are now down 50% from the pandemic peak.
Demand to buy with a mortgage today is shockingly at the same level as 31 years ago, even though U.S. population is 30% higher.
1) Today, the typical monthly mortgage payment (including taxes and insurance) is around $2,800/month, or $34,000/year.
The typical U.S. household median income is $89,000/year.
Meaning the typical household needs to spend 38% of their gross pre-tax income on montly mortgage cost
America is getting dangerously close to having more seniors than children.
In 2005, there were 2.1 Americans under 18 for every person over 65.
Today, there are only 1.2.
And by 2030, the ratio will dip below 1.0, indicating the U.S. will be in organic population decline.
The U.S. is now officially in a K-shaped housing market.
Sales volumes are still rising at the $1M+ luxury price point. (+3.9% YoY)
But collapsing everywhere else.
This shift in mix towards higher end buyers is causing something interesting to happen.
1) This is a phenomenom I've noticed anecdotally in my travels across the U.S. Housing Market.
I keep finding houses in lower to middle income neighborhoods in Florida, Georgia, Texas, and Nevada where values are plummeting.
Down 20-40% in some cases.
