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I contributed to my friend @OzekiAnalytics - a terrific sumo blog on the forefront of analytics - sharing some lessons we could learn in statistics using election prediction as the field to teach these concepts. Some good #stats and #modelling hopefully ozekianalytics.substack.com/…
ValueHao retweeted
conservative “man” calling themself Bug and making a gofundme to avoid getting a real job. you are nonbinary.
My dear friends and fellow radicals, the day finally came where I'm genuinely in need of one of these. I aimed for the least amount to get us over the hump. Any help would be appreciated, especially in sharing this. Pray much and suffer well 💪⚜️
gofund.me/56f2dcd37
ValueHao retweeted
Compete with China' never seems to mean 31,000 miles of high-speed rail or hundreds of miles of new subway a year. Just data centers and deregulation.
ValueHao retweeted
Sympathetic to this argument -- the models are very good -- but I think it's wrong. If you work on a complex project for multiple weeks you will start to see seams, as more and more of your time is spent repeatedly catching and explaining the same failure modes.
ValueHao retweeted
I tried out the first few moves of chess and it gives you literally zero reason to care about any of the characters. This is why games are not a serious art form
translation: “please be my exit liquidity”
'Early Anthropic investor' speaking to the FT: "The next Google is dancing naked in front of you. If you can’t see the value of it, you don’t deserve to make money.” ft.com/content/314e17df-e7af…
ValueHao retweeted
Jensen Huang must’ve been lobbying to allow Nvidia to sell chips to the Chinese exclusively because he was having sex with a Chinese spy. Yup, no other reason
The story keeps getting crazier. To recap everything that has been reported so far:
- The US intelligence community discovered that Jensen Huang, the CEO of the largest company in the world, was sleeping with Alice Huang, a Chinese spy and an executive at Megaspeed. (FT)
- Multiple independent investigations have concluded that Megaspeed is likely a Chinese cutout, which helps Chinese companies access AI chips or circumvent export controls. (NYT and Bloomberg)
- The US intelligence community also concluded that Alice Huang’s goal was to convince Jensen to lobby the U.S. government to loosen export controls on advanced AI chips. (NYT)
- The intelligence community relayed this information to “a small group of top US government officials” earlier this year. (FT)
- Over the last year, Jensen Huang has repeatedly lobbied the U.S. government to loosen export controls on advanced chips. @BISgov has done so, not only by permitting the export of H200 chips to China, but also not enforcing export controls that would have required a license for exports of the most advanced Blackwell chips to Megaspeed and Southeast Asia.
- Although @CommerceGov leadership was presumably briefed on this information by the U.S. intelligence community, @BISgov has taken no actions to tighten controls on Megaspeed or Southeast Asia.
- Megaspeed remains a preferred cloud partner of Nvidia, and continues to receive Nvidia Blackwell chips despite employing a Chinese spy who reportedly is romantically engaged with the CEO of Nvidia.
- Tens of billions of dollars worth of AI chips have been exported to Southeast Asia this year alone, and Malaysia and Singapore are now two of the four largest importers of AI chips in the world.
What is going on here??? We need answers. The question of who gets the most advanced AI chips in the world is literally the defining strategic question of our time. And not only does it seem like the MSS may be directly influencing the debate on export controls in the United States, but also @CommerceGov is refusing to listen to the warnings of the IC on this issue. What is a POSSIBLE good explanation for why Megaspeed is still receiving chips? Why is there not a license requirement for AI chip shipments to all of Southeast Asia? This is beyond strange at this point.
The fallout from this story will be massive. Obviously, the motivations underpinning Nvidia’s policy views opposing export controls must now all be questioned. But also, how did @BISgov sit on this information and has still taken no actions? We need answers.
ValueHao retweeted
Replying to @kevinnbass
According to Grok this is the probability that all 254 counties in Texas swung in the same direction in the same election cycle.
Is the increased US worker productivity in the room with us? Because I don’t believe data has conclusively demonstrated that improvement; it certainly hasn’t decisively such that there’s a consensus on it as best as I’m aware
This is my quant
It's just not probable. Texas was stolen!
Readers added context they thought people might want to know
The post's calculation assumes 2.9 million voters all chose one candidate. In the 2026 Texas general election, about 9.9 million ballots were cast, with Democrats winning the Senate race 55.1% to 43.0% and Governor 52.8% to 45.7%. Both Republican candidates conceded. txelectionresults.com/2026-general-e… viewfromthegallery.com/breakdown/texa…






























