Research, Analysis & Risk Management Consultancy
Sub-Saharan Africa
Joined August 2014
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Vates retweeted
I urge the Somali authorities to respect the judicial independence of the Supreme Court, constitutional procedure, and limits on presidential terms bbc.com/news/articles/c977pp…
My earlier official visit report on human rights in Somalia here: ohchr.org/en/documents/count…
If the chief justice is detained and the 90-day clock holds regardless, does Somalia hold elections under a government its own courts just ruled unconstitutional - or does this become the pretext opposition factions needed for an impartial election outside of FGS control?
Vates retweeted
In unprecedented ruling today, Somalia's Supreme Court ruled that the amendment of the Federal Provisional Constitution (2012) is null and void.
In its verdict which came following a case filed by former president Sharif Sheikh Ahmed, the Court the Hassan Sheikh Mohamud government does not have the legal standing required to institute this case.
The Court also ruled that the so-called new "Constitution" is not among the laws which the Constitutional Court has the authority to invalidate.
Vates retweeted
#News_Alert: Authority suspends registration of #Ethiopia’s oldest independent newspaper indefinitely
Founded in 1995 by general manager Amare Aregawi, The Reporter is Ethiopia’s oldest privately owned independent newspaper. The publication operates under the motto “Free Press, Free Speech, Free Spirit” and has covered national politics, regional conflicts, economic developments and social issues for more than three decades.
In a statement issued on Monday, the #EMA said its monitoring of content published and broadcast by the media house over the past year had identified what it described as “repeated violations of law and professional ethics.”
addisstandard.com/?p=60869
Vates retweeted
Reports of attacks on civilians in #Ethiopia's Amhara and Tigray regions are deeply disturbing. Among those reportedly killed in the Jaari 2 displacement camp in Amhara were children, including a newborn. In another attack in Rama, Tigray, several people were reportedly killed while trying to get food.
While these are the latest incidents, drone attacks and civilian casualties have tragically become frequent across Ethiopia.
The violence in northern Ethiopia is pushing an already fragile health system closer to collapse. Hospitals face shortages of health workers, medicines, and equipment. Ambulance services are severely limited. Insecurity is obstructing the delivery of life-saving medical supplies to some areas. @WHO and @UN partners are working around the clock to deliver additional much needed medical supplies to all the affected regions.
As fighting continues, more people are likely to lose access to essential health care, including emergency services, maternal and child health care, and treatment for diseases.
Civilians must be protected. Health workers and humanitarian supplies must be allowed to reach those in need.
The most courageous choose peace. The best medicine is peace.
reuters.com/world/africa/str…
Interesting that the old foreign policy establishment still view Ethiopia through this lens, while at the same time Abiy is expanding ties with BRICS and purchasing advanced Russian military equipment.
"Washington would benefit from a Horn of Africa strategy, insulated from the vicissitudes of partisan politics, and anchored in Ethiopia, the region’s pivotal state." This is the way US policy used to be, the way, I suspect, the Trump team would like it to be again. But times are different and I dont see an anchor state approach to the Horn working anytime soon. Sadly, at this point, if Trump has an anchor state in the Horn of Africa, it's the UAE... meforum.org/mef-observer/was…
Vates retweeted
Huge news! For 3 years @SohanDsouza & I have investigated a covert paid ad campaign pushing anti-Muslim, anti-migrant & anti-Qatar hate speech across Europe, Lebanon & the US.
Today we publish Manufacturing the “Great Replacement”: 533M recorded exposures in 30 countries.
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Vates retweeted
Treasury’s Office of Foreign Assets Control imposed sanctions on the Rwandan Ministry of Defence and Zigama Credit and Savings Society, a Rwandan financial institution that has played a key role in facilitating Rwanda’s support for the March 23 Movement and its political wing, the Congo River Alliance.
home.treasury.gov/news/press…
🧵 Gaylan Media broadcast a hard hitting interview with former Somalia NISA DG Sanbalooshe. The US, UK, EU, and UN served as intermediaries in indirect talks between the Future Council and Villa Somalia. They failed. FGS's position on every concession the opposition sought re elections: "none of our business."
Wareysiga Sanbaloolshe oo xasaasi ah oo aan ka qaadnay ahna 63 Daqiiqo, waxaad ka daawan kartaa Youtube-keena
youtube.com/@Gaylan-Media/vi…
His fragmentation map: Turkey controlling Mogadishu and the Shabelles, UAE anchored in Puntland, Jubaland under UAE-Kenya influence, Somaliland engaging Israel and the UAE, #AlShabaab holding the rest. From the man who ran Somalia's intelligence services three times: AS seizing southern Somalia is "100% certain."
When dialogue fails, electoral legitimacy collapses, and the country fragments along competing foreign-power lines - is what follows still recognisable as a state? Somalia's former intelligence chief doesn't think so. The question is whether the start of the AUSSOM drawdown in January changes that calculus?