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VoteHub retweeted
Day-by-day comparisons show 2026 early voters are more Democratic than at the same point in 2024.
Florida's shift reflects Democrats voting earlier in EV, not higher low-propensity turnout, and should fade. In TX, GA, and NC, low-propensity Democrats are driving the shift.
VoteHub retweeted
One encouraging sign for Democrats in North Carolina and Georgia is that, even as the overall early electorate becomes less Democratic, voters who sat out 2024 remain just as Democratic-leaning. No turnout gains for GOP with low-propensity voters yet.
Texas Early Vote Tracking: Day 3
As of Oct. 21, 2026
Total votes: 2,249,055 (+803,777)
23.2% of projected final turnout.
Modeled 2026 Vote:
🔵 James Talarico: 45.8% - 55.0%
🔴 Ken Paxton: 42.8% - 52.0%
Day 3 was more red than Day 1 or Day 2. VoteHub currently rates the race as Tilt D.
Iowa U.S. Senate 🌽
As of Oct. 22, 2026
Total votes cast: 161,537 (+41,548)
11.4% of projected final turnout.
Modeled 2026 Vote:
🔵 Josh Turek: 57.7% - 66.7%
🔴 Ashley Hinson: 31.3% - 40.3%
Very few votes have been counted and remaining votes in Iowa will be much more Republican. We rate this race as Tilt R.
VoteHub retweeted
2026 Congressional Control Forecasts
Chance Democrats win each chamber
Organization: House | Senate
Silver Bulletin: 🔵 95% | 🔵 76%
FiftyPlusOne: 🔵 99% | 🔵 75%
Split Ticket: 🔵 89% | 🔵 65%
VoteHub: 🔵 88% | 🔵 60%
Florida Early Vote Tracking ☀️
As of Oct. 22, 2026
Total mail votes: 1,615,742 (+276,404)
22.3% of projected final turnout.
Party Registration:
🔵 Democratic: 665,552 (41.2%)
🔴 Republican: 609,409 (37.7%)
Republicans continue to cut into the Democratic firewall, and should flip it within the next week before building a lead of their own.
Ohio U.S. Senate 🏟️
As of Oct. 22, 2026
Total early votes: 763,436 (+68,592)
17.9% of projected final turnout.
Modeled 2026 Vote:
🔵 Sherrod Brown: 52.0–62.9%
🔴 Jon Husted: 36.9–45.8%
Remaining votes in Ohio will be much more Republican. VoteHub currently rates the race as Lean D.
VoteHub retweeted
.@VoteHub partnered with Verasight to poll Ohio's midterm contests.
Among likely voters, including those leaning toward a candidate, Amy Acton received 46% support to Vivek Ramaswamy’s 45% in the governor’s race. In the Senate race, Sherrod Brown led Jon Husted 47% to 44%. On the generic ballot, Republicans led Democrats 47% to 45%. All three of these leads are within the survey’s margin of error.
From VoteHub’s article: “VoteHub chose to work with Verasight because of its approach to recruiting respondents, its voter-file validation capabilities and its record of election research. Verasight builds its panel through address-based sampling, SMS recruitment and online targeting. Using several recruitment approaches helps reach people who may respond differently to different forms of outreach.”
Read about the poll results and methods: votehub.com/2026/10/22/voteh…
