LC

On 6 October, Russia, via Belarus, sharply raised the level of provocation on the border with Latvia. At least 20 migrants were accompanied by armed people in masks who threatened Latvian troops and forcibly directed people across the border. A few hours later, these same men crossed into Latvian territory themselves, damaged an electrical distribution box, removed two surveillance cameras, and retreated to Belarus before border guards arrived. The operation was designed to test the response threshold of Latvia and NATO to a limited use of force from Belarusian territory: how the military reacts to unidentified armed individuals, how easily a small group can breach the border, and how vulnerable the surveillance system is. The attackers threatened military personnel, crossed the border, and committed an act of sabotage, but avoided open combat. This model allows Moscow to gradually raise the level of violence and test where the Alliance draws the line between a "hybrid threat" and a military response. In parallel, Russia has long been constructing an accusatory framework regarding the Baltic states. Its structure is as follows: Baltic nationalists were accomplices in Nazi crimes; the current political regimes of Latvia, Lithuania and Estonia are "neo-fascist"; the Russian-speaking population is their victim; NATO membership has turned the region into a military bridgehead against Russia. The next step in this logic is to present Russian use of force as a response to a threat that the Baltic states allegedly created themselves. Moscow increasingly describes the current policies of the Baltic states not simply as discrimination against Russian-speakers, but as a continuation of Nazi practices. Putin has stated that in the Baltic states "tens of thousands of people are declared 'subhumans' and deprived of the most elementary rights," while simultaneously speaking of "revanchists and neo-Nazis" who have adopted "the ideology and methods of Hitler's forces." In this way the Russian-speaking population is shifted from the category of a discriminated minority into the category of victims of a policy that Moscow equates with Nazism. The Russian Foreign Ministry already directly calls the current political regimes of Latvia, Lithuania and Estonia "neo-fascist." Maria Zakharova has used the formula "police regimes of a neo-fascist type," and official Russian communications claim that the "rehabilitation of Nazism" has become the ideological foundation of the ruling elites of the Baltics. Moscow links this narrative to decisions on the Russian language, education, citizenship, Russian citizens and the dismantling of Soviet monuments. From 1 September, Moscow began supplementing political accusations with direct threats of a forceful response. At an official Foreign Ministry briefing, Zakharova stated that Russia's response to further escalation in the Baltic region would be "decisive" and "destructive for them." Five weeks prior to the incursion into Latvian territory,the Russian Foreign Ministry was already publicly introducing the possibility of devastating consequences for the states in the region. On 21 September, Russia added a legal basis to the propagandistic accusation. The Prosecutor General’s Office of the Russian Federation applied to the Tverskoy District Court of Moscow demanding that Latvian, Lithuanian and Estonian nationalists be recognized as accomplices of Nazi Germany, involved in war crimes and crimes against humanity against the Soviet people. Materials from the FSB, the Foreign Ministry, the Ministry of Defense, the State Archive and the Russian Military-Historical Society were attached to the case. The historical narrative was transferred from the sphere of propaganda and memory politics into an officially formalized state accusation. On October 5, the day before the breach at the Latvian border, a Russian court legally formalized this accusation. Thirteen Latvian, Lithuanian, and Estonian figures and five organizations - including Omakaitse, Aizsargi, and Pērkonkrusts - were recognized as accomplices of Nazi Germany. The Prosecutor General's Office stated that Baltic collaborators had turned the region into a "killing ground" and were complicit in the deaths of over 1.5 million people. Immediately following the court's decision, the Prosecutor General's Office applied these accusations to modern Baltic states. It claimed that since regaining independence in the early 1990s, authorities in Latvia, Lithuania, and Estonia have pursued a "deliberate state policy" of distorting history, glorifying Nazi collaborators, and effectively justifying their crimes. Countering this was explicitly described by the Prosecutor General's Office as necessary for the "protection of the national interests of the Russian Federation." Criminal accusations regarding events from the 1940s were converted into an instrument to delegitimize the policies of the three modern states. At the same time, the Russian narrative is transforming the Baltic states from an ideological enemy into an active military threat. Latvia, Lithuania, and Estonia are increasingly referred to as a "NATO staging ground" from which a strike could be launched against Russia or a threat posed to Kaliningrad. Leonid Slutsky, Chairman of the State Duma Committee on International Affairs, stated that the Baltic states are becoming not only a military staging ground for the Alliance, but also a "target for Russia's inevitable response." In September, Baltnews had already applied the phrase "target for preemptive strikes" to Lithuania and Latvia. Belarusian state propaganda is synchronously raising the level of threats. On 26 September, "SB. Belarus Today," discussing the possible deployment of NATO forces and nuclear infrastructure in the region, stated that the relevant country could "in a few seconds turn into a nuclear swamp." In this construction, Minsk is not merely repeating Russian anti-Western rhetoric but normalizing the possibility of the physical destruction of neighboring states. By late September, Moscow was openly linking the Baltic region to the possible preemptive use of force. On September 29–30, Russian statements regarding Kaliningrad contained warnings about employing the full available arsenal should any attempt be made to isolate the oblast; the phrase "preemptive strikes on decision-making centers" in NATO states appeared in the media space. On October 1, Putin reaffirmed Russia's readiness to use its entire arsenal to protect the territory of Russian Federation. On October 4–5, Peskov reiterated the phrase regarding "the entire available arsenal of weaponry." By early October, Moscow had effectively finalized an argument that could justify forceful action against the Baltic states. Its logic is straightforward: Baltic nationalists were accomplices to Nazi crimes → modern states glorify them → their political regimes are "neo-fascist" → they persecute Russian speakers → NATO uses their territory as a staging ground against Russia → they threaten Kaliningrad and Russia itself → therefore, Russian forceful action can be framed as a preemptive or defensive response. The speed of escalation in the second half of September and early October is particularly telling. On September 21, the Prosecutor General's Office launches the case regarding the crimes of Baltic nationalists. On September 24, Latvia and Lithuania are already being designated as potential "targets for preemptive strikes." On September 26, Belarusian state media mentions the possibility of turning a Baltic country into a "nuclear swamp." On September 29–30, Moscow raises the stakes around Kaliningrad and the potential use of force. On October 1, Putin speaks of deploying Russia's entire arsenal. On October 5, a Russian court legally solidifies the indictment against Baltic nationalists, and the Prosecutor General's Office directly ties it to modern Baltic policies. On October 6, armed men operating from the Belarusian side threaten Latvian troops, after which masked individuals enter Latvian territory, damage border infrastructure, seize surveillance cameras, and return to Belarus. Only the blind could fail to notice this rapid acceleration of escalation. Moscow has already drafted the "indictment" for the Baltic states. The final step is the announcement of a "denazification" operation. We saw and heard all of this before in 2014 and 2022.