send the analyst to the jobsite trailer
California, USA
Joined September 2012
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I told guys at Investment Committee that make $5MM-$10MM a year that Cap rates don’t matter and was immediately fired.
One of the more frustrating dynamics in development is being asked for your professional judgment on construction costs, then being told to “sharpen the number” because the deal doesn’t pencil.
Without new information, you’re not refining an estimate. You’re just adjusting assumptions to achieve a desired financial outcome.
A cost target is not a cost estimate.
The nepo baby heir to a bn dollar regional GC is posting on LinkedIn his new online course real estate modeling cert. what is going on.
All this to say. Earthwork is the BEST trade for subs because it’s so hard to quantify and really understand what they are doing out there. LOTS of risk for an earthwork contractor. I would say these guys make the most margins or maybe the least.
Well for one it is the civil engineer definitely not the architect!
But yeah generally the engineer will have his own estimate for sure. But the earthwork sub calculates actual material that is to be excavated, imported/exported. Soil shrinkage assumptions, pavement sections etc need to be taken into account by the earthwork contractor. Lime content is recommended but anyone who has lime treated a site knows. That is based on the original borings. Once you move dirt around your pad profile could be made up of different dirt not part of the original sample borings. So you Always do a lime series test before paving and pouring. That will confirm if the original lime content recommendation did its job. If not you will need to apply more lime content to achieve desired plasticity, etc.
In the Bay Area I know of a couple that can’t afford to get divorced despite the wife easily making $300-500k total comp. Bought a house for $1.5MM in 2017 together and now worth $3.5MM and main reason is that they can’t afford homes separately. I’m sure this is common around the country but it’s just crazy to me given she makes decent money.
My wife and I decided to get a divorce.
There were no fights, just two adults who realised they drifted apart from each other.
This is probably the hardest thing I had to go through.
First of all, telling our girls...seeing them so sad was heartbreaking. But we are still a team as parents and will do everything for them!
Also we have to sell our house, the house I wanted to live in forever and raise my kids in...
Going back to a smaller appartment will be rough.
I still have a lot of to handle, that's why I wasn't active here on X.
I'm really grateful for all the people who reached out and asked where I was 🙏🏼
This women will always be a part of my life, she gifted me with two perfect daughters.
I wish her all the best, great memories were made in those years!
I'll be back soon. Thank you everyone 🙏🏼
Bid leveling an industrial project isn’t just comparing $/sf.
One GC assumes zero soil import. Another carries 5000 CY, another assumes 7000CY.
One prices 3% lime treatment. Another 5%.
GC/GR staffing, pavement sections, exclusions, and earthwork risk all suffer.
All bidding the same drawings.
The cheapest bid isn’t always the cheapest project!
Personally I need to know how the enchilada is made.
Letting market acquisition guys run around and play grab ass with design consultants and general contractors never works out well.
Your development expertise needs to have eyes on a project the minute that brochure comes into the inbox of the acquisitions guy.
Good institutional shops have development folks that end up protecting the acquisitions guy so he doesn’t get caught with his pants down. That’s the best partnership.
Being on retwit I can now firmly say from my own observations that the identifying measure of dipping into sub institutional real estate is when you start using texts as the main communication tool for engaging contractors…Am I wrong?
One of the harder lessons in development: you can have a sound geotechnical report, a GC that follows the plans, and CMT testing that confirms the earthwork meets spec—and still experience post-construction soil movement.
Expansive and moisture-sensitive soils don’t care that everyone checked the right boxes.
You investigate the cause and pursue responsible parties where warranted. But not every failure means someone breached their obligations, and not every loss is recoverable. Residual geotechnical risk can still land on the owner.
I’ve had to drill this into the minds of institutional executives: hiring qualified professionals and verifying compliance reduces risk. It doesn’t eliminate it—or guarantee there’s someone else to send the bill to.
Those conversations have been rewarding because executives value that insight. It helps them understand the risk they’re actually approving.
That’s the difference between simply processing construction paperwork and being a good owner-side development manager: applying judgment, explaining the exposure, and helping ownership make informed decisions.
And that’s why development expertise needs a seat in the IC room.
This all started with the M Sport crowd in circa 2012.
Also coincided with the downfall of modern society as we know it.
Lowly levered long term owners lens vs highly levered focus points.
Nice try lol. Long-term owners like us may not view the mortgage constant as the primary development hurdle, particularly if they’re not highly levered. Some finance at the enterprise/portfolio level rather than putting project-specific debt on each deal. The development decision is more about unlevered yield on cost, spread to the stabilized market cap rate, and the resulting 7–10 year unlevered IRR. Cost of debt still matters at the enterprise level, but it’s not necessarily the hurdle for an individual development.
Ground up 200k sf industrial
10 months
35 PCOs that ended up in 7 prime contract COs
61 RFIs
9 ASIs issued by architect
10 payment applications that take about half a day each to put together
1 lease that took 4 months to figure out
50 owner/contractor meetings
few dozen submittals
Ground up ADU
Timeline: 9 months. Completed in: 9 months
Change orders: 3
Ground up duplex
Timeline: 10 months. Completed in: 10 months
Change orders: 2
Non-permitted unit renovation
Timeline: 1 month. Completed in: 6 weeks
Change orders: 2
Permitted RSO 4 unit remodel
Timeline: 12 months. Completed in: 27 months.
Change orders: 9
Different GCs: 2
Lawsuits: 2
X work your magic
Non negotiable
- first gen 67-69
- TREMEC 6 speed manual
- wilwood or bear 4 piston rear 6 piston front brakes
- ride tech front and back
- holly efi
- LS platform 450-550 hp
- BTR or TSP choppy and loud
wrote out a list of who I’m looking for.
X, work your magic.
non negotiable
- 35 to 42 y/o
- healthy masculine
- smart, funny, lighthearted
- provider/protector mentality
- post economic (still hardworking)
- must be kind, generous, thoughtful
- no kids yet, decidedly wants kids
- on the healing path (history of serious commitment ex therapists, books, retreats)
- can meet anywhere but will not date unless live in the same city
- fit and sober because you care about your health
strongly preferred
- no prev marriages or engagements
- works in tech (comfortable with risk and career is blended into personal life)
Hey leasing guys, let me set something straight when you ask for a current schedule of a project.
Master schedules are not updated daily. A GC tracks actual starts and durations during a short term window, and those updates are then captured in a formal master schedule update that will compare against the current baseline.
The fact that a master schedule ran 2 weeks ago shows activities that have since shifted is not an indication that the schedule is inaccurate or not being properly maintained. It reflects the normal project scheduling and update cycle.
The fact is that a successful development requires good construction execution 90% of the time.
And when things go sideways it’s easy for the developer to blame everyone else except themselves. Also hard for many Wharton “acquisitions and development” execs to actually know why things went sideways unless you are an expert in construction.
This is why I love development. It’s a blend of finance and construction. 90% of people really only know one side of this fence. I feel like in the old days you really had to be good at both as an individual.
