Yarl.hl (@YarlGLC) header
Yarl.hl (@YarlGLC) profile picture

Co-founder @GLC_Research and @HyperliquidR https://teapawt.net/t.co/EEba0dhO0k | https://teapawt.net/t.co/K7Lg2j6neN

Joined January 2025
Photo by Yarl.hl (@YarlGLC)Photo by Yarl.hl (@YarlGLC)Photo by Yarl.hl (@YarlGLC)Photo by Yarl.hl (@YarlGLC)Photo by Yarl.hl (@YarlGLC)Photo by Yarl.hl (@YarlGLC)
Really proud of that one. Hyperliquid. HL Eco. HRC.
Very proud to have launched the "Hyperliquid Financials" dashboard with HL Eco. hl.eco/financials We've been vocal for a long time about closing the information gap in Hyperliquid, and this brings us a real step closer. In my opinion, this is the best dashboard out there from a financial analysis perspective. No more raw data only, you have EMAs on every charts and can download CSVs if you want to build your own chart as well. If you have any chart suggestion, please feel free to reach out. Some of the charts I love below. Go check it out, Hyperliquid.
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Equities were the fastest-growing asset class on trade[XYZ] in Q3. Volume up 158% QoQ, from $58.9B to $152.1B. That is $93.2B added, more than trade[XYZ]'s entire $56.3B increase, as commodities fell 47.7%. Today, equity perpetual futures were approved onshore in the US.
Today, equity perps can begin trading for the first time on @CFTC registered exchanges. This move reflects my commitment to ensuring that America’s markets remain the most innovative, liquid, and well-regulated in the world. Instead of being forced to turn to offshore, unregulated venues to access equity perpetual futures, Americans may now access equity perps on CFTC-regulated markets subject to robust safeguards. I appreciate the continued partnership of @SECGov and @SECPaulSAtkins as we work to further harmonize our agencies' regulatory initiatives.
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Yarl.hl retweeted
Futures, not swaps. That was the question hanging over US perpetual derivatives all year. CME sued the CFTC arguing they are swaps. The SEC and CFTC asked whether equity perpetual derivatives are security futures or security-based swaps. Today the CFTC answered: single-stock perpetual futures are security futures, deemed approved under Regulation 40.3, and listable on exchanges registered with both the CFTC and the SEC. The CFTC deemed equity perpetual futures approved under Regulation 40.3, as security futures. For the first time, exchanges registered with both the CFTC and the SEC can list them. How we got here: • May 29: CFTC approves the first US bitcoin perpetual futures • Jun: SEC and CFTC jointly ask whether equity perpetual derivatives are security futures • Aug 19: Trump says the CFTC is working to bring Hyperliquid onshore • Aug 18 to 26: HPC and trade[XYZ] write to the SEC and the CFTC • Sep 15: CLARITY Act fails • Sep 16: Payward and Bitnomial propose a regulated HIP-3 route • Oct 26: Hyperliquid confirms Payward as the first HIP-3* deployer • Oct 29: ICE invests in trade[XYZ] to operate its regulated US markets (@elonmusk QT worth a mention) • Nov 3: CFTC approves equity perpetual futures The US route to Hyperliquid is taking shape. Thank you, @HyperliquidPC. Hyperliquid.
"but single-stock perpetuals aren't live yet" *CFTC APPROVES FIRST EQUITY PERPETUAL FUTURES CONTRACTS FOR TRADING ON U.S. EXCHANGES: CFTC (@mlmabc)
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"but single-stock perpetuals aren't live yet" *CFTC APPROVES FIRST EQUITY PERPETUAL FUTURES CONTRACTS FOR TRADING ON U.S. EXCHANGES: CFTC (@mlmabc)
The US route to Hyperliquid just got more concrete. Hyperliquid confirms Payward's plan to be the first CFTC-regulated deployer on HIP-3*, an optional deployer allowlist. Bitnomial (DCM and DCO) would deploy and clear the markets, NinjaTrader Clearing (FCM) would carry US accounts, and Hyperliquid's onchain OB would do the matching, without Hyperliquid itself having to register. What's still open before the first listing: • HIP-3* on mainnet • Bitnomial listing the contracts, by self-certification or CFTC approval (“subject to regulatory approval”) • How clearing splits between HyperCore, which already margins and liquidates positions in code, and Bitnomial, the registered clearinghouse? • Which markets can go live: crypto, gold, silver and US equity index perpetual futures already trade in the US, but single-stock perpetuals aren't live yet With CFTC Chair Selig working to bring Hyperliquid onshore, I'd argue they'll find a way to bring Hyperliquid home. Permissionless HIP-3 stays unchanged. Payward is first, and if it's approved, I don't expect it to be the last. Hyperliquid.
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Yarl.hl retweeted
Do you think this was priced in? Because it was not. The one rule that has worked best for me with my Hyperliquid thesis: don't bet against this team until proven otherwise. For almost two years, I've kept a notebook where I wrote down everything about Hyperliquid: my vision, my thoughts, every piece of the thesis. I reached its last pages in Singapore. The final one was a short message to @chameleon_jeff and Hyperliquid, written in a small coffee shop with Keisan and Guru. Closing it felt like closing the first chapter of Hyperliquid. Now we accelerate. Going back through it, I found things I wrote more than a year ago that played out almost exactly as I imagined. And the one variable that never changed: don't bet against this team. Time and time again, Hyperliquid Labs and the XYZ team didn't just meet my bull case. They beat it. By A LOT. Every single time. And every time, the timeline goes back to doubting. Unit Labs taking spot and equity perps, "it should have been vertically integrated", "this is bad for HYPE". That was never the vision. Hyperliquid was always meant to be the AWS of liquidity: neutral, credible, permissionless infrastructure to house all of finance. Not one business integrating vertically, but a base layer for everyone. That was the whole point from day one. Today, the owner of the NYSE chose trade[XYZ] to bring 24/7 markets on Hyperliquid to the US. This is step one. The US market is waiting. I've covered Hyperliquid every single day for two years and walked away from a lot of deals and quick money to stay 100% focused on it. @HyperliquidR was our first step to close the information gap. It's still day one, and there's a lot more in the pipeline. The more time passes, the more I feel we are all Hyperliquid. Every builder, every team, every contributor, every voice on the timeline, all the way to Wall Street, is writing the history of financial markets right now. This is exactly why we're in this industry, why we went all in on Hyperliquid, and why we love finance. You can just do things. You can change things and make them better. Keep it simple. Don't overtrade it. Don't bet against this team. HYPER FUCKING LIQUID.
trade[XYZ] launched its first market on Hyperliquid 381 days ago. Today, we are joining forces with ICE, parent company of the New York Stock Exchange, to bring perpetual futures on Hyperliquid to U.S. regulated markets. I don’t usually write long posts, but today merits reflection. For years, builders across this industry have worked to show that open, onchain markets could support price discovery, manage risk, and withstand stress to the standards of traditional market infrastructure, all while staying open when and where those markets aren’t. Our achievements stand on the shoulders of those builders. And today, the company that owns the New York Stock Exchange has chosen to build upon the work of every developer, trader, market maker, and user who took a chance on us and our markets. We share this moment with all of you. Markets are shaped by their participants. A new generation of investors trades from their phones, across asset classes, at any hour of any day. Until Hyperliquid, the right infrastructure for those markets didn’t exist. Building these markets was hard. It took novel approaches to pricing, funding, and risk, refined with real capital at stake, in markets that don’t close. It also meant earning the trust of the people trading on them. We’re honored that the community recognized that effort and responded in kind. That trust is what allowed us to grow our volumes to a ~$1 trillion annualized run rate in just over a year, to help pioneer new instruments like pre-IPO perps, and to earn the confidence of storied institutions like S&P Dow Jones Indices. That’s why ICE has chosen trade[XYZ] as its exclusive partner to bring 24/7 perps to the U.S. Shifts in technology have pushed markets toward greater transparency, better price discovery, and broader access: from the coffee house to the curb exchange, ticker tape to the telephone, the trading floor to digital exchanges. ICE helped write that last chapter. In 1997, Jeff Sprecher bought a small power-trading technology business for $1. ICE launched as an electronic energy marketplace in 2000, helped digitize major commodity markets, and acquired the NYSE in 2013. It has grown exponentially because of this appetite for innovation. That’s the partner we wanted: a partner that looks forward and embraces progress. Americans deserve access to the most innovative markets in the world, and the protections of U.S. regulation. With trade[XYZ] and ICE, subject to regulatory approvals, they’ll have both. The difference isn’t just access. Perps don’t expire, so traders never have to roll positions, and liquidity concentrates in a single deep market for each asset. Cross-margining enhances capital efficiency by letting one pool of collateral back positions across stocks, commodities, and crypto. Underpinning it all are atomic clearing and settlement, real-time risk management that enables continuous markets, and universally applied rules that anyone can verify. This is the next chapter we’ll write together. My responsibility, our responsibility, is to now build markets worthy of the confidence our partners and our users have placed in us. Our commitments will not waver: to fair and transparent markets, to diverse markets, to low costs of execution, and above all, to market integrity. All of this in pursuit of one thing: A universal exchange, open around the clock, coming to the United States. We’re proud to have deployed more than 100 markets on trade[XYZ]. But measured against the opportunity ahead, we’ve barely started. There is an enormous universe of assets we haven’t reached, alongside things people want to trade that have no established market at all. Wherever there is demand to trade an asset, we want trade[XYZ] to be where its price is discovered. Global stocks, commodities, bonds, pre-IPO companies, compute, new indices, digital assets, interest rates, equity baskets, volatility products, alt assets… Anything. Anytime. Anywhere. Ultimately, everything you own should work with everything you trade. Picture a headline breaking on Saturday night. You should be able to post tokenized shares as collateral, hedge your portfolio with an index perp, add exposure to oil, and take a view on a company that has not yet gone public. All in one account, all on one risk engine, before any traditional market opens. trade[XYZ] and Hyperliquid were built for this. I hope someone opens their first investment account years from now to find that trivial, and to wonder why their predecessors needed so many separate financial relationships. Getting there will take liquidity, reliability, trust, and prices people have reason to believe. It will take years. I’m prepared to spend them. Finally, a few thank yous. First to the XYZ team: For the tireless nights and for committing to this vision before it was obvious. To Jeff Sprecher and ICE, with special thanks to Michael Blaugrund and Trabue Bland who championed us throughout: You’re a world-class, technology-embracing team that proves innovation and scale are in fact not at odds. To Stan Druckenmiller: For your partnership and helping us turn the next page. To Hyperliquid Labs: For being the best partners we could ask for. You set an impossible standard, one we continually strive to meet. @chameleon_jeff, @iliensinc, @xulian_hl And most importantly, to our users: You traded these markets when no one thought it mattered. Guess what? It did.
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Yarl.hl retweeted
Replying to @sershokunin
Shoku, you'll be remembered as the founder who brought credible, 24/7 price discovery to the whole world. Hyperliquid wouldn't be Hyperliquid without you and the whole XYZ team. What a privilege to watch this shared vision unfold right before our eyes. Thank you Jeff, thank you Shoku. Truly historic. Anything. Anytime. On ICE[XYZ].
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Replying to @sershokunin
@sershokunin mode it is indeed. Anything. Anytime. On ICE[XYZ]
trade[XYZ] and ICE, owner of the New York Stock Exchange, are joining forces to bring 24/7 perpetual futures on Hyperliquid to the United States. In just over a year, our markets on Hyperliquid have surpassed $650 billion in volume. They provide continuous price discovery for stocks, indices, and commodities, and have become trusted reference points for retail and institutions alike when traditional markets are closed. Much of the world trades them. Until now, Americans could only watch. We intend to change that. Subject to CFTC approval, trade[XYZ] and ICE plan to establish a new, dedicated U.S. market, with novel exchange and clearing infrastructure built on Hyperliquid. Planned contracts span equities, indices, commodities, FX, and crypto, with access through participating brokers and platforms. We’ll share more on products, eligibility, and timing as approvals progress. ICE brings more than 25 years of experience operating regulated markets, clearing, and managing risk. trade[XYZ] brings the product development, market design, and technology behind the most liquid and robust markets on Hyperliquid. Innovation and the protections of U.S. regulation shouldn’t be a trade-off. Together, we plan to prove it. ICE is making a strategic investment in trade[XYZ] and joins us in building towards the future of Hyperliquid. A small group of market luminaries is joining as well, beginning with Stan Druckenmiller. For more than four decades, few investors have anticipated the great turns in markets as often as Stan. We’re proud to have him with us for the next one. We’re building the U.S. market in parallel with our existing HIP-3 markets, which we’ll continue to expand and innovate on. We expect both to flourish. They each have a long road map ahead, from new asset classes to new ways to trade them. To the Hyperliquid community, whether you were here before us or came because of us, thank you. You took a chance on new markets and you made them matter. You’ll forever be a part of this story. Anything. Anytime. On ICE[XYZ].
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Truly historic. It has been a real privilege for us to cover trade[XYZ] and Hyperliquid quarter after quarter, trying to capture everything that happens and share it clearly with financial markets and market participants. In just over a year, we've watched Hyperliquid go from being called a perpetual derivatives exchange to infrastructure for all of finance: open, credible, neutral and available 24/7 to the whole world. Now ICE, the owner of the NYSE, has chosen trade[XYZ] to bring these markets to the US. Seeing so many credible institutions recognize the value of Hyperliquid and the work of the XYZ team is a beauty to witness. Some days it doesn't even feel real. We're grateful to be in the position to watch history being written right before our eyes. Congrats @sershokunin and the whole XYZ team. Hyperliquid.
trade[XYZ] launched its first market on Hyperliquid 381 days ago. Today, we are joining forces with ICE, parent company of the New York Stock Exchange, to bring perpetual futures on Hyperliquid to U.S. regulated markets. I don’t usually write long posts, but today merits reflection. For years, builders across this industry have worked to show that open, onchain markets could support price discovery, manage risk, and withstand stress to the standards of traditional market infrastructure, all while staying open when and where those markets aren’t. Our achievements stand on the shoulders of those builders. And today, the company that owns the New York Stock Exchange has chosen to build upon the work of every developer, trader, market maker, and user who took a chance on us and our markets. We share this moment with all of you. Markets are shaped by their participants. A new generation of investors trades from their phones, across asset classes, at any hour of any day. Until Hyperliquid, the right infrastructure for those markets didn’t exist. Building these markets was hard. It took novel approaches to pricing, funding, and risk, refined with real capital at stake, in markets that don’t close. It also meant earning the trust of the people trading on them. We’re honored that the community recognized that effort and responded in kind. That trust is what allowed us to grow our volumes to a ~$1 trillion annualized run rate in just over a year, to help pioneer new instruments like pre-IPO perps, and to earn the confidence of storied institutions like S&P Dow Jones Indices. That’s why ICE has chosen trade[XYZ] as its exclusive partner to bring 24/7 perps to the U.S. Shifts in technology have pushed markets toward greater transparency, better price discovery, and broader access: from the coffee house to the curb exchange, ticker tape to the telephone, the trading floor to digital exchanges. ICE helped write that last chapter. In 1997, Jeff Sprecher bought a small power-trading technology business for $1. ICE launched as an electronic energy marketplace in 2000, helped digitize major commodity markets, and acquired the NYSE in 2013. It has grown exponentially because of this appetite for innovation. That’s the partner we wanted: a partner that looks forward and embraces progress. Americans deserve access to the most innovative markets in the world, and the protections of U.S. regulation. With trade[XYZ] and ICE, subject to regulatory approvals, they’ll have both. The difference isn’t just access. Perps don’t expire, so traders never have to roll positions, and liquidity concentrates in a single deep market for each asset. Cross-margining enhances capital efficiency by letting one pool of collateral back positions across stocks, commodities, and crypto. Underpinning it all are atomic clearing and settlement, real-time risk management that enables continuous markets, and universally applied rules that anyone can verify. This is the next chapter we’ll write together. My responsibility, our responsibility, is to now build markets worthy of the confidence our partners and our users have placed in us. Our commitments will not waver: to fair and transparent markets, to diverse markets, to low costs of execution, and above all, to market integrity. All of this in pursuit of one thing: A universal exchange, open around the clock, coming to the United States. We’re proud to have deployed more than 100 markets on trade[XYZ]. But measured against the opportunity ahead, we’ve barely started. There is an enormous universe of assets we haven’t reached, alongside things people want to trade that have no established market at all. Wherever there is demand to trade an asset, we want trade[XYZ] to be where its price is discovered. Global stocks, commodities, bonds, pre-IPO companies, compute, new indices, digital assets, interest rates, equity baskets, volatility products, alt assets… Anything. Anytime. Anywhere. Ultimately, everything you own should work with everything you trade. Picture a headline breaking on Saturday night. You should be able to post tokenized shares as collateral, hedge your portfolio with an index perp, add exposure to oil, and take a view on a company that has not yet gone public. All in one account, all on one risk engine, before any traditional market opens. trade[XYZ] and Hyperliquid were built for this. I hope someone opens their first investment account years from now to find that trivial, and to wonder why their predecessors needed so many separate financial relationships. Getting there will take liquidity, reliability, trust, and prices people have reason to believe. It will take years. I’m prepared to spend them. Finally, a few thank yous. First to the XYZ team: For the tireless nights and for committing to this vision before it was obvious. To Jeff Sprecher and ICE, with special thanks to Michael Blaugrund and Trabue Bland who championed us throughout: You’re a world-class, technology-embracing team that proves innovation and scale are in fact not at odds. To Stan Druckenmiller: For your partnership and helping us turn the next page. To Hyperliquid Labs: For being the best partners we could ask for. You set an impossible standard, one we continually strive to meet. @chameleon_jeff, @iliensinc, @xulian_hl And most importantly, to our users: You traded these markets when no one thought it mattered. Guess what? It did.
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In our view, this is one of the most important moments in Hyperliquid's history. Anthropic is one of the largest IPOs ever, with a Nasdaq listing expected around November 20. Until then, Hyperliquid is one of the few venues where it trades, through trade[XYZ]'s pre-IPO contract, xyz:ANT. How the IPOP is built: • No external price before listing: the oracle is a 30-minute EMA driven by the order book itself • $125 starting reference with ±50% discovery bounds • Up to 10x leverage, isolated margin • Funding at 1% of a standard trade[XYZ] perpetual derivative until listing • Converts to a standard perpetual derivative once Anthropic trades, with a 60-day grace period if the IPO slips All eyes will be on Hyperliquid. How efficiently this market prices Anthropic ahead of the listing will matter a lot for the credibility of IPOPs as a whole. SpaceX and others were a success, but this one will be just as important, if not more. And with OpenAI likely not far behind, all eyes could stay on Hyperliquid for the foreseeable future.
The Pre-IPO Perpetual (IPOP) Market for Anthropic is now live.
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"Structure follows the HRC x HL Eco income statement (hl.eco/financials)." Proud to see the work we've been doing with HL Eco to give the clearest picture of $HYPE financials now being used by top data providers like @artemis. Hyperliquid.
Introducing: Financial Statements for Protocols Find out how profitable a protocol like @HyperliquidX @solana @ethereum @Pumpfun and more are. Get started: artemis.ai/company/HYPE?tab=…
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Yarl.hl retweeted
On earnings, $LIT still trades at ~2x $HYPE multiple tho Same supply and valuation methodology for both, September earnings annualized, with Lighter’s buybacks used as proxy for its earnings.
People sit on this app and compare HYPE and LIT like they are the same MC Bros, LIT is 21x!!! less valued then HYPE Compare volume all you want I guess but study relative value gap closures
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Yarl.hl retweeted
Indeed, what a two weeks it has been. We put in a lot of work and sacrifice all year for moments like this. In two weeks, between Seoul and Singapore, we got to feel the gratitude of the community and of the most impactful builders in the Hyperliquid ecosystem. This trip exceeded all our expectations. Couldn’t have wished for better partners than @xparadigms & @ponyo_fp (@FourPillarsFP) and @guru__hl (@hl_eco) to make it even more special. Now, I guess it’s time to take things to the next level, be even more dedicated to Hyperliquid, and enjoy all of this with a f* all-star team. Thank you @hypurr_co for the great event and special thanks to @_LetMeDo_ for helping us tremendously with the distribution of our Hyperliquid reports ! "Oh, I have read your works. Thank you for the hard work." Thank you, Jeff. Hyperliquid.
🤖 Made with AI
What a week it has been. It was a great pleasure to meet everyone in Singapore. Hyperliquid community feels like family. Shoutout to @dschamis for giving a shoutout to hl.eco on stage. Unfortunately I was in a cab to the airport during his panel.
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The US is opening up, Europe next? The US is moving. American regulators are openly trying to bring Hyperliquid onshore. Mike Selig: "Our goal is always going to be to onshore those markets and to have the markets subject to our regulation here in the United States and accessible to our U.S. persons here in the U.S." Things are moving on the private side too. Bloomberg reported that Hyperliquid is in advanced talks with Payward, the parent company of Kraken, about giving US traders regulated access to Hyperliquid through permissioned HIP-3 markets. That access would go through Bitnomial, an exchange the CFTC already regulates. Neither company has confirmed a deal yet, but the direction is clear: a legal path for Hyperliquid in the US is taking shape. Europe may be the next market. The EU is a large pools of capital in the world, and it was the first major jurisdiction with a dedicated crypto rulebook: MiCA. But MiCA was built for crypto companies like exchanges, custodians and stablecoin issuers. It doesn't clearly answer a newer question: "What happens when a regulated financial firm wants to use a public blockchain to deliver a regulated product?" That's the real problem. A broker, a bank or a trading firm that wants to build on Hyperliquid and offer its perps and liquidity to clients or institutions doesn't have clear answers to basic questions: which rulebook applies, which regulator is in charge, and whether using a public blockchain changes how the product is treated. The path just isn't clear, yet. That's why this letter is a big deal. @HyperliquidPC is asking the EU to make that path clear using rules it already has. Perps would be treated as normal derivatives under MiFID II. A firm using a public blockchain would be judged under the rules for its product and its business, the same as any other firm. And the public onchain record would count toward transparency requirements. Read HPC full article & response below. hyperliquidresearch.xyz/rese…
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USDC reserve yield is now live on our $HYPE financial dashboard: daily revenue, share of total protocol revenue, eligible supply, rates and payments, all in one place. Built by HRC and HL Eco, from Singapore. Link below. Hyperliquid.
AQAv2 reserve yield already made up 18.3% of Hyperliquid's total protocol revenue over the last 30 days. Track USDC reserve yield in full detail on our Financials dashboard with @HyperliquidR hl.eco/financials/revenue/re…
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Yarl.hl retweeted
HRC x HL Eco Always a pleasure to cook with you, @guru__hl ! Hyperliquid.
AQAv2 reserve yield already made up 18.3% of Hyperliquid's total protocol revenue over the last 30 days. Track USDC reserve yield in full detail on our Financials dashboard with @HyperliquidR hl.eco/financials/revenue/re…
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Yarl.hl retweeted
If Hyperliquid's revenue chart were a price chart, ~$1.1M in daily revenue would look like a pretty strong support. Looking at the 14D and 30D averages, revenue has repeatedly bounced around that level over the past year. Today, we're sitting closer to ~$2.2M in average daily revenue, roughly 2x in the past month. And this still doesn't include USDC yield. Including it, current revenue levels would already put Hyperliquid above $1B in annualized revenue, while the last 7 days would bring that figure closer to $1.2B. What's interesting is that this is happening without what we'd consider euphoric market conditions or consistently large trading volumes. Meanwhile, open interest on Hyperliquid is at all-time highs. If volatility and volumes expand from here while OI remains structurally higher, we could see revenue push toward new highs. And trading activity is only one part of the equation. Months ago, $2B in annualized revenue looked like a longer-term milestone. The path toward it is now becoming increasingly visible. That's also why we think Hyperliquid's valuation needs to be viewed against how quickly its revenue base can expand, rather than against a static snapshot of TTM earnings. source below. Hyperliquid.
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Yarl.hl retweeted
And $PURR mNAV is still at a 30% premium, accumulating more $HYPE WoW while increasing their cash position.
With the current buying pressure coming from the AF, burns, ETFs, and DATs, it would take roughly 6 months for the current float to be absorbed at the current pace. Buying pressure and float methodologies below. These are based on assumptions and don't account for unlocks or new supply entering the market through staking rewards or the community allocation pool. That said, the point is simple: buying pressure relative to the amount of sellable HYPE is still insanely high right now. In our view, $HYPE's current valuation multiples are already pricing in a significant amount of forward growth. However, we still don't think the valuation is overextended, especially when compared with historical multiples reached elsewhere in the industry during bull market conditions, or even with public equities such as $HOOD and $COIN. Happy New $HYPE ATH to everyone who believed. Hyperliquid.
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Yarl.hl retweeted
Is HYPE overextended? Depends on how you value it. Most trackers price HYPE off circulating market cap or FDV. The truth sits between the two, and the closest thing we have to real fair value is the OTS framework we helped build with @HypeStrat ($PURR). On that basis HYPE's P/E is 36x right now, built on trailing 30-day annualized revenue and already including the USDC yield about to start flowing to hyperliquid:native in three weeks. That multiple is being put up during one of the best success stories on Hyperliquid this year, arguably one of the best in the entire industry: HIP-3 is still running fees cut over 90% in Growth Mode, and Trade[XYZ] closed Q2 at around $38M annualized revenue run-rate. There's meaningful room left as those fees normalize, and if distribution keeps expanding, especially into the US now that the regulatory overhang is lifting, users and revenue could scale a lot faster from here. Put 36x next to the peers: $COIN at 70x, $HOOD at 50x. There's also a layer no P/E captures: ▫️Hyperliquid is a blockchain, so it carries real network effects, subjective, hard to price, but still there. ▫️Add the structural bid on top: HSI and the other mechanical buyers (the Assistance Fund buyback, burns, ETF creations, DAT purchases) are running at a ~$3.76B annualized pace (last 30d) against a tradable float worth only $2.78B today, enough to absorb the entire float in under nine months at the current rate. (see chart below) Valuation is always subjective, and this is just our read: we'd weigh those two mechanisms as arguing for HYPE to trade at a premium to peers right now rather than a discount. Others may put weight on different factors and land somewhere else, that's fair too. One more thing worth naming directly: all of this is trailing, the last 30 days annualized. Crypto has been through one of the worst stretches in its history over the past 12 months, and HYPE still put up impressive numbers. As conditions turn, and volume and volatility across the space pick back up, HYPE can generate a lot more than the last year's numbers alone suggest. That's the real gap with Coinbase and Robinhood: ▫️Their multiples aren't just pricing trailing earnings, they're backed by years of sell-side coverage that tells the market where earnings land two or three years out, so a 70x or 50x today can already be pricing a much lower multiple a couple years forward. ▫️Crypto rarely gets that treatment, the industry tends to price off trailing metrics and undersells forward revenue, partly a consequence of how much trust bad actors have burned here. We think HYPE deserves to be judged differently, and we know plenty of people will push back on that. Some of the discount HYPE trades at today is a real information gap, there's far less independent forecasting of its revenue and volume than there is for listed exchanges, which is exactly what @HyperliquidR reporting is trying to close. Some of it is the industry's own history weighing on the multiple, and that's fair too. But for anyone asking if HYPE is overextended right now: we don't think so. It can trade lower near term, that's not the argument. But realistically, if you finally value HYPE using forward-looking estimates rather than trailing metrics, we believe the upside, assuming the large growth that might come with HYPE finally entering the US in the coming months/years, is still largely underappreciated by the market. All the data coming from our HYPE financials dashboard with HL Eco. Link below. Hyperliquid.
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Yarl.hl retweeted
?? What a time to be alive. Hyperliquid.
I don't know whether they'll announce this today, but in my opinion, it's a matter of time. The question is: why would Coinbase use 90% of the USDC yield to buyback hyperliquid:native ? By replacing their own (bad) perpetual exchange with Hyperliquid, they'd save a significant amount of money, offer users a best-in-class product, dramatically expand distribution, and still participate in the upside. But that's not all. Coinbase users have never really been fee-sensitive. Even if Hyperliquid powers the backend, Coinbase could continue charging its own trading fees on the frontend. They'd earn more through USDC and builder code economics than they likely would by operating their own perpetual exchange, while offering users a significantly better product. Another interesting piece of the puzzle is Sterling. He previously led onchain initiatives at Circle and recently joined Hyperliquid to focus on BD and builder codes. It may seem like a small detail, but I'm sure it helped with the AQAv2 integration, and it could also be a meaningful advantage if Coinbase ever decides to integrate Hyperliquid through builder codes. We'll see how it plays out. For a long time, this wasn't part of my HYPE thesis. I didn't think something like this would happen anytime soon. Now... Hyperliquid.
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Yarl.hl retweeted
Tokenized equities and commodities on Hyperliquid are now cheaper to cross than the crypto perps sitting next to them. Final week of Q2, same rule on both books: ▫️Trade[XYZ] RWA markets: 3.57 bps median spread ▫️Hyperliquid crypto perps: 5.44 bps In Q1 the RWAs trailed, 6.2 vs 5.0. They crossed it in one quarter, while the market set nearly doubled to 84 contracts. Most of these contracts are months old, and the book they went through is one of the tightest in the industry. They win the median, not the tail: 16.1 bps at the 90th percentile against 11.1 for crypto: SP500 quotes at 0.14 bps, DKNG at 36.1 with nothing inside 10 bps, for example. Hyperliquid.
2026 Trade[XYZ] Q2 Report Today, we're excited to release Trade[XYZ]'s 2026 Q2 Report. While three of its HIP-3 rivals, Felix, Ventuals, and Dreamcash, shut down entirely this quarter, Trade[XYZ] pulled further ahead. Its share of HIP-3 volume climbed from 84.5% to 95.1%. Quarterly volume rose 79.2% to $202.36B. More importantly, this was the quarter Trade[XYZ] stopped competing for the category and started defining it. Pre-IPO Perpetuals launched in May, and Cerebras, SpaceX, and Quantinuum all ran the whole way through to their public listing and converted cleanly into standard equity perpetuals, the first real evidence that a permissionless, onchain market can price a private company's opening trade with remarkable accuracy. Equity volume grew 377% to $58.9B, the fastest-growing segment of the quarter, and the CFTC's approval of the first US-regulated perpetual futures contract gave the clearest regulatory validation Hyperliquid has had to date, a landmark Trump has since built on, saying CFTC Chairman Mike Selig is working to bring Hyperliquid into the US. Enjoy the read. Some excerpts below, with the link to the full PDF. Hyperliquid.
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