The policy simulation engine, Forecasts that get graded. Powered by @Agentese_ai : https://xitter.cf/t.co/KZPXG4v8D4
Joined April 2025
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Yarrow retweeted
Yarrow 种子用户招募仍在继续！
我们更新了 MCP 功能，现在你可以把 Yarrow 嵌进你喜欢的 AI 工具内一起使用了 🤖
欢迎拍砖欢迎指点欢迎内测！dm我拉你进内测群
配合 skills 一起使用效果更好喔：
pulse.yarrowlab.ai/skills/ya…
Yarrow MCP is live. Connect it to your Claude or Codex and ask anything you want to predict.
This week is the perfect time to try it — three major events in 72 hours:
🇮🇱 Israel votes tomorrow. Polls deadlocked: Eisenkot 22 seats, Likud 19. Neither bloc reaches 61. The outcome shapes Iran policy → oil → everything downstream.
🏦 Fed decides Tuesday. Hold at 94%. But Warsh's press conference language will signal December — and that's where the real bet is.
🇺🇸 US midterms in 8 days. Democrats at 95% for the House, 76% for the Senate. The sweep scenario is being priced in.
Try asking your agent:
— "Will the Fed hold rates on October 28?"
— "Who will form the next Israeli government?"
— "Will Democrats take the Senate?"
Setup in 30 seconds:
claude mcp add --transport http --scope user yarrow api.pulse.yarrowlab.ai/mcp
claude mcp login yarrow
Or install the Yarrow skill directly:
claude skill install pulse.yarrowlab.ai/skills/ya…
The future, modeled. Try it now ☘️
pulse.yarrowlab.ai/mcp
Yarrow MCP is live. Connect it to your Claude or Codex and ask anything you want to predict.
This week is the perfect time to try it — three major events in 72 hours:
🇮🇱 Israel votes tomorrow. Polls deadlocked: Eisenkot 22 seats, Likud 19. Neither bloc reaches 61. The outcome shapes Iran policy → oil → everything downstream.
🏦 Fed decides Tuesday. Hold at 94%. But Warsh's press conference language will signal December — and that's where the real bet is.
🇺🇸 US midterms in 8 days. Democrats at 95% for the House, 76% for the Senate. The sweep scenario is being priced in.
Try asking your agent:
— "Will the Fed hold rates on October 28?"
— "Who will form the next Israeli government?"
— "Will Democrats take the Senate?"
Setup in 30 seconds:
claude mcp add --transport http --scope user yarrow api.pulse.yarrowlab.ai/mcp
claude mcp login yarrow
Or install the Yarrow skill directly:
claude skill install pulse.yarrowlab.ai/skills/ya…
The future, modeled. Try it now ☘️
pulse.yarrowlab.ai/mcp
This weekend, two things to watch.
Next week, two things that move markets.
Monday Oct 27: Israel votes. Polling deadlock — both blocs at ~51 seats, 30% undecided. The result shapes Iran policy, which shapes oil.
Tuesday Oct 28: Fed decides. Hold at 87%. But if Israel's election spikes oil on Monday, the Fed walks into a different room on Tuesday.
You can track both right now on YarrowPulse:
→ Israeli Election: 273 related prediction markets
→ Federal Reserve 2026: 70 related markets
→ Hormuz Strait: 38 markets connecting the two
Open pulse.yarrowlab.ai, pick a topic, and ask Yarrow what happens next.
Also: we're rolling out Yarrow MCP — connect Yarrow's forecasting engine directly to your Claude or Codex agent. Ask any question, get a calibrated probability with sources and reasoning. Early access opening soon.
If you want to be first to try it, DM me
pulse.yarrowlab.ai ☘️
This weekend, two things to watch.
Next week, two things that move markets.
Monday Oct 27: Israel votes. Polling deadlock — both blocs at ~51 seats, 30% undecided. The result shapes Iran policy, which shapes oil.
Tuesday Oct 28: Fed decides. Hold at 87%. But if Israel's election spikes oil on Monday, the Fed walks into a different room on Tuesday.
You can track both right now on YarrowPulse:
→ Israeli Election: 273 related prediction markets
→ Federal Reserve 2026: 70 related markets
→ Hormuz Strait: 38 markets connecting the two
Open pulse.yarrowlab.ai, pick a topic, and ask Yarrow what happens next.
Also: we're rolling out Yarrow MCP — connect Yarrow's forecasting engine directly to your Claude or Codex agent. Ask any question, get a calibrated probability with sources and reasoning. Early access opening soon.
If you want to be first to try it, DM me
pulse.yarrowlab.ai ☘️
Four earnings in two days.
Netflix: Beat EPS ($0.87 vs $0.82), but slashed full-year ad revenue guidance from $3B to $2.7B. Stock down 5.3% — two-year low. As an investor, I don't care that you beat this quarter. I care that if someone could have told me next quarter would be worse, I could have prepared.
Meta: Revenue $64.6B (+26% YoY), EPS beat by 7.3%. But the headline is the 2-for-1 stock split — new non-voting Class C shares. Zuckerberg keeps full control while raising capital for AI. $34.9B capex in one quarter. Up 3.8% after hours.
Tesla: Revenue slight beat, but GAAP EPS dropped from $0.39 to $0.22. Bright spot: FSD attach rate above 75%, subscriptions up 67%. Weakness: regulatory credits collapsed from $417M to $113M. Mixed — stock barely moved. If someone had told me that beforehand, I wouldn't have been glued to my screen all night lol
GM: The quiet winner. Revenue $50B beat, EPS $3.70 beat, raised full-year guidance, authorized $20B buyback. But WTI at $98 is the question every analyst asks on every call.
Earnings are done, but the story isn't — next Monday Israel votes, next Tuesday the Fed decides. Back to back. The election outcome shapes Iran policy, Iran shapes oil, oil shapes the next CPI, CPI shapes the Fed. One chain.
YarrowPulse tracks every node on that chain. Open it, and ask anything you want to predict.
pulse.yarrowlab.ai ☘️
Yarrow retweeted
我在做一个 AI 预测产品，帮美股交易者追踪全球事件对标的的影响
现在找种子用户试用一周，想请你帮忙体验一下
你要做的事很简单：pulse.yarrowlab.ai
1、注册一个账号
2、随便浏览，看看首页的话题和预测市场
3、试试右下角的聊天框，问一个你关心的问题（比如 "10 月会加息吗"或者 "Tesla 汽车都上天了，这周财报怎么看"）
4、用几天，之后我找你聊 10 分钟
不需要你夸，只需要你说实话。提前谢谢 🙏
感兴趣的直接私信我或者评论区回复好嘛 🥺
We're looking for 20 seed users to test YarrowPulse — our AI prediction intelligence platform for tracking how global events impact your portfolio.
What you get:
— Early access to all features
— Direct line to the team for feedback
— Your name in our community credits when we launch publicly
What we need from you:
— Use Pulse for one week
— Tell us what works and what doesn't (15 min call)
— You trade stocks, crypto, or follow macro — that's the only requirement
Sign up: pulse.yarrowlab.ai
DM me or reply to join the seed group.
We're looking for 20 seed users to test YarrowPulse — our AI prediction intelligence platform for tracking how global events impact your portfolio.
What you get:
— Early access to all features
— Direct line to the team for feedback
— Your name in our community credits when we launch publicly
What we need from you:
— Use Pulse for one week
— Tell us what works and what doesn't (15 min call)
— You trade stocks, crypto, or follow macro — that's the only requirement
Sign up: pulse.yarrowlab.ai
DM me or reply to join the seed group.
This week: Netflix (today), GM (Tue), Meta and Tesla (Wed). 70 S&P 500 companies reporting total.
Here's how to read them through YarrowPulse:
Netflix reports today at 4:45 PM ET. Consensus: $12.87B revenue, $0.82 EPS. But Netflix isn't just a streaming story — it's an ad revenue story. On track for ~$3B in ad revenue this year, double last year. The question: can engagement per member stop declining?
GM reports Tuesday. Consensus: $3.69 EPS (+30% YoY). North America carries this company. But oil at $103 WTI is squeezing consumer budgets. If GM flags demand softening, it's a macro signal.
Meta reports Wednesday. EPS expected up 460% YoY. AI-driven ad targeting is the engine. But Meta just released Muse Spark Open (816B parameters, runs on Apple Silicon) — the real question is whether open-source AI cannibalizes their cloud revenue or expands the pie.
Tesla also Wednesday. EPS expected -14.5% YoY. Deliveries beat at 486K, but margins are the concern. And Elon's political exposure in an election year adds volatility.
On YarrowPulse right now:
→ Federal Reserve 2026: 1 update, 70 related markets, 1 divergence ≥6pt. Heat: 🔥🔥🔥
→ Hormuz Strait Disruption: 11 updates, 38 markets. Heat: 🔥🔥🔥
Every one of these earnings reports is touched by the same macro chain: Iran war → oil at $100+ → CPI hot → Fed Oct 28 decision.
pulse.yarrowlab.ai ☘️
Yarrow retweeted
You’re the founder, the assistant, the person screening every CV, and somehow also the person calling to change the booking.
Agentese is building an AI workforce for people carrying too many jobs at once.
Each agent takes on a specific part of the work:
@LifeClaw_AI calls businesses for you, handling bookings, cancellations, and rescheduling, even in another language.
Little Pink Potato works for both sides of hiring. For applicants, it finds roles that fit their experience and preferences. For recruiters, it evaluates candidates, gives match scores, and flags concerns, connecting the right people with the right roles.
CodeAutrix audits and stress-tests smart contracts and AI skills in minutes, catching critical flaws and security vulnerabilities before you ship.
@Yarrow_ai turns uncertain questions into forecasts you can check. It models how people, institutions, and markets are likely to respond to a policy change, market shift, or crisis, gives probabilities with the reasoning behind them, and measures every forecast against what actually happens.
Start with the task that keeps interrupting everything else.
Which one would you hand over first?
Yesterday Ukraine launched over 1,000 drones at Russia — one of the largest drone attacks of the war. Targets included the St. Petersburg oil export terminal, a VK data center, and an Ozon logistics center. Fires confirmed.
This happened 8 days after Trump declared an "energy ceasefire."
Open YarrowPulse right now:
→ Russia–Ukraine ceasefire agreement: 18 updates in 24 hours, 20 related prediction markets. Market heat: 🔥🔥
→ Russia–Ukraine Territorial Control: 12 updates in 24 hours, 70 related markets. Market heat: 🔥🔥
The ceasefire topic is surging with updates. But here's the point: 1,000 drones hitting oil infrastructure doesn't look like a ceasefire. And the prediction markets know it — the ceasefire contract hasn't moved up.
Meanwhile, this attack adds upward pressure on oil. Brent hit $110 on Friday. Ukraine is now systematically targeting Russian energy exports — and that feeds directly into the next CPI print.
Geopolitics → energy → inflation → Fed. One chain. YarrowPulse tracks it all.
pulse.yarrowlab.ai ☘️
Was Tuesday's hot CPI a surprise?
Not if you had the evidence pack.
Before the print, here's what was already in Yarrow's evidence pack — all public, all verifiable:
✅ Iran's Strait of Hormuz disruption → oil supply shock
✅ Brent above $100 for weeks → energy costs feeding into CPI with a lag
✅ Gasoline prices rising through September → BLS data would capture this
✅ Core services still sticky → shelter and medical costs not decelerating
Against:
✅ August core PCE came in soft (3.0% vs 3.3%) → market anchored on this
The market anchored on the August PCE softness and priced in a gentle glide. The evidence pack said: energy costs are surging and they haven't fully hit the CPI basket yet.
The evidence pack was right. Gasoline +9.1% was the single largest contributor.
Now look at YarrowPulse → Oil Price Spike 2026: 23 updates in 24 hours, 80 related markets. The energy story isn't over — it's the driver of the next CPI print too.
This is what the evidence pack is for: not predicting the future, but assembling the inputs so the surprise isn't surprising.
pulse.yarrowlab.ai ☘️
September CPI drops tomorrow 8:30 AM ET. The last inflation print before the Fed's October 28 decision.
Right now on YarrowPulse → Fed Monetary Policy 2026:
340 related prediction markets tracked. Market heat:
🔥🔥🔥 (highest level).
This is the densest prediction market cluster on the platform — more markets than any other topic except US midterm elections.
Why it matters: every one of those 340 markets will reprice tomorrow morning based on one number. Hot CPI → hike odds jump. Cool CPI → hold confirmed.
Open YarrowPulse before the print. Check the Related Forecasts. Then check again after 8:30 AM. Watch how fast 340 markets process a single data point.
That's the power of prediction markets — and that's what YarrowPulse makes visible.
pulse.yarrowlab.ai ☘️
YarrowPulse has a chat box: "Ask what happens next?"
Try asking anything:
— "Will there be a ceasefire in Ukraine by year end?"
— "Will oil hit $120?"
— "Will the Democrats win the Senate?"
The chat connects your question to live prediction markets and shows you Yarrow's independent probability.
Not an opinion. Not a guess. A calibrated probability backed by evidence.
pulse.yarrowlab.ai ☘️
YarrowPulse: Real-Time Global Event Prediction Intelligence Platform
YarrowPulse is a real-time global event prediction intelligence platform. Here’s what you can do with it:
1. World Focus
Track major global events and emerging developments across multiple topics.
On the homepage, you’ll find the world’s most important prediction topics, organized into five categories: Conflict, Politics, Economy, Disasters, and Elections.
Each topic card features four key indicators:
🔥 Market Heat
📊 Live Updates
🏦 Related Markets
📈 Divergence
Topics we currently track include US–Iran military operations, the 2026 US midterm elections, the Strait of Hormuz crisis, and Federal Reserve monetary policy.
You can also expand the interactive world map on the right to explore topics by geographic location.
2. Explore Each Topic in Depth
Click on any topic to explore it through three layers of information.
Summary provides an AI-generated overview of the event, highlighting key variables and potential scenarios.
Latest Updates delivers a real-time news feed, with sources and timestamps clearly labeled.
Related Forecasts connects you to relevant Polymarket prediction markets. Each market displays three key metrics:
Market Price: The current odds on Polymarket.
Yarrow Price: Yarrow’s independent prediction for the same outcome.
Divergence: The difference between the market price and Yarrow’s prediction, measured in percentage points.
For example, you might see Divergence: 8pt.
This is where Yarrow delivers its core value: helping you identify where the market may be mispricing an event.
3. Chat with YarrowAgent
You can also interact directly with YarrowAgent through the persistent chat box in the bottom-right corner, labeled “Ask what happens next?”
Simply ask questions in natural language, such as:
“Will Russia and the US have a direct military confrontation related to Iran by December 31, 2026?”
The system intelligently suggests relevant questions based on the topic you’re exploring.
Log in to unlock the full YarrowAgent conversational experience.
Explore YarrowPulse and see what might happen next : pulse.yarrowlab.ai/
September CPI drops tomorrow 8:30 AM ET. The last inflation print before the Fed's October 28 decision.
Right now on YarrowPulse → Fed Monetary Policy 2026:
340 related prediction markets tracked. Market heat:
🔥🔥🔥 (highest level).
This is the densest prediction market cluster on the platform — more markets than any other topic except US midterm elections.
Why it matters: every one of those 340 markets will reprice tomorrow morning based on one number. Hot CPI → hike odds jump. Cool CPI → hold confirmed.
Open YarrowPulse before the print. Check the Related Forecasts. Then check again after 8:30 AM. Watch how fast 340 markets process a single data point.
That's the power of prediction markets — and that's what YarrowPulse makes visible.
pulse.yarrowlab.ai ☘️
YarrowPulse: Real-Time Global Event Prediction Intelligence Platform
YarrowPulse is a real-time global event prediction intelligence platform. Here’s what you can do with it:
1. World Focus
Track major global events and emerging developments across multiple topics.
On the homepage, you’ll find the world’s most important prediction topics, organized into five categories: Conflict, Politics, Economy, Disasters, and Elections.
Each topic card features four key indicators:
🔥 Market Heat
📊 Live Updates
🏦 Related Markets
📈 Divergence
Topics we currently track include US–Iran military operations, the 2026 US midterm elections, the Strait of Hormuz crisis, and Federal Reserve monetary policy.
You can also expand the interactive world map on the right to explore topics by geographic location.
2. Explore Each Topic in Depth
Click on any topic to explore it through three layers of information.
Summary provides an AI-generated overview of the event, highlighting key variables and potential scenarios.
Latest Updates delivers a real-time news feed, with sources and timestamps clearly labeled.
Related Forecasts connects you to relevant Polymarket prediction markets. Each market displays three key metrics:
Market Price: The current odds on Polymarket.
Yarrow Price: Yarrow’s independent prediction for the same outcome.
Divergence: The difference between the market price and Yarrow’s prediction, measured in percentage points.
For example, you might see Divergence: 8pt.
This is where Yarrow delivers its core value: helping you identify where the market may be mispricing an event.
3. Chat with YarrowAgent
You can also interact directly with YarrowAgent through the persistent chat box in the bottom-right corner, labeled “Ask what happens next?”
Simply ask questions in natural language, such as:
“Will Russia and the US have a direct military confrontation related to Iran by December 31, 2026?”
The system intelligently suggests relevant questions based on the topic you’re exploring.
Log in to unlock the full YarrowAgent conversational experience.
Explore YarrowPulse and see what might happen next : pulse.yarrowlab.ai/
YarrowPulse: Real-Time Global Event Prediction Intelligence Platform
YarrowPulse is a real-time global event prediction intelligence platform. Here’s what you can do with it:
1. World Focus
Track major global events and emerging developments across multiple topics.
On the homepage, you’ll find the world’s most important prediction topics, organized into five categories: Conflict, Politics, Economy, Disasters, and Elections.
Each topic card features four key indicators:
🔥 Market Heat
📊 Live Updates
🏦 Related Markets
📈 Divergence
Topics we currently track include US–Iran military operations, the 2026 US midterm elections, the Strait of Hormuz crisis, and Federal Reserve monetary policy.
You can also expand the interactive world map on the right to explore topics by geographic location.
2. Explore Each Topic in Depth
Click on any topic to explore it through three layers of information.
Summary provides an AI-generated overview of the event, highlighting key variables and potential scenarios.
Latest Updates delivers a real-time news feed, with sources and timestamps clearly labeled.
Related Forecasts connects you to relevant Polymarket prediction markets. Each market displays three key metrics:
Market Price: The current odds on Polymarket.
Yarrow Price: Yarrow’s independent prediction for the same outcome.
Divergence: The difference between the market price and Yarrow’s prediction, measured in percentage points.
For example, you might see Divergence: 8pt.
This is where Yarrow delivers its core value: helping you identify where the market may be mispricing an event.
3. Chat with YarrowAgent
You can also interact directly with YarrowAgent through the persistent chat box in the bottom-right corner, labeled “Ask what happens next?”
Simply ask questions in natural language, such as:
“Will Russia and the US have a direct military confrontation related to Iran by December 31, 2026?”
The system intelligently suggests relevant questions based on the topic you’re exploring.
Log in to unlock the full YarrowAgent conversational experience.
Explore YarrowPulse and see what might happen next : pulse.yarrowlab.ai/
Yarrow retweeted
Congrats to @Yarrow_ai on taking 4th place and winning $5,000 at @amber_ac_ BUILD_QUEST 2026. 🌿
Behind the result:
• 7th of 113 on ForecastBench conflict questions
• Outscored GPT-5.4, Claude Opus, and Gemini 3.1 on matched questions
• Produced each forecast in 5–9 minutes
• Cost approximately $0.06 per run
A strong checkpoint as Yarrow builds its Simulation Foundation Model for forecasting and policy simulation.
Proud to have Yarrow in the Agentese workforce.
This is just the beginning. ☘️
Our goal is to make everything predictable.
Starting with the Simulation Foundation Model
whether it's "what's most likely to happen" or "what if we had done it differently," we're working on all of it.
4th · @Yarrow_ai: “The evidence is the edge.”
7th of 113 on ForecastBench conflict questions. Outscored GPT‑5.4, Claude Opus and Gemini 3.1 on matched questions.
5–9 minutes per forecast. ~6¢ model cost per run.
Building our Simulation Foundation Model for forecasting and policy simulation.
4th place at BUIDL_QUESTS 2026 🏆
Flew to Singapore, pitched Yarrow live, made it to the finals out of 50+ teams globally.
First hackathon as a team. Won't be the last.
Back to building ☘️
One week ago, we posted a cheat sheet on macro data × prediction markets. Here’s the scorecard:
𝗙𝗲𝗱 𝗵𝗶𝗸𝗲 𝗼𝗱𝗱𝘀 — a major reversal in just one week:
Mon 9/29: Kalshi 62%, Polymarket 53.5%
Wed 10/1 (post-PCE): down to 27%
Fri 10/3 (post-NFP): down further to 14%
One week. Three data points. A 48-point swing on Kalshi.
On Monday, we flagged the 8.5-point spread between the two platforms and said: “One of them has to be mispriced.”
Turns out both were.
Just in the same direction.
The bigger miss was how quickly both platforms failed to price in the shift in the data.
𝗡𝗼𝗻-𝗙𝗮𝗿𝗺 𝗣𝗮𝘆𝗿𝗼𝗹𝗹𝘀 — both platforms missed:
Polymarket was off by roughly 3–5x.
Kalshi was closer, but still overshot by about 60%.
The actual number landed in a tail range that both platforms had previously assigned only ~10–15% probability.
𝗠𝗶𝗰𝗿𝗼𝗻 — the one that got it right:
Polymarket: 97% probability of a beat
Actual: EPS beat by $1.70, revenue beat by $2.9B
We said at the time: “The real question isn’t whether Micron beats. It’s what kind of guidance it gives.”
The guidance came in at $61.5B, well above the $57.2B consensus.
HBM orders are locked in through 2027.
All three signals we flagged turned positive.
Nvidia went on to hit a new all-time high. The Nikkei jumped 3.1%.
𝗧𝗵𝗲 𝗹𝗲𝘀𝘀𝗼𝗻:
Prediction markets are powerful, but they’re not infallible.
When the market gets anchored to a narrative — in this case, “the Fed will hike” — what breaks that anchor isn’t usually another opinion. It’s new hard data.
PCE started to loosen that anchor.NFP broke it completely.
That’s the problem Yarrow is trying to solve:
Find the evidence that can actually change the conclusion before the market consensus does.
Don’t follow the narrative.
Let the data carry the weight it deserves in the evidence pack. ☘️
Monday we posted: Kalshi priced October hike at 62%. Polymarket at 53.5%. An 8.5-point spread.
Wednesday, August Core PCE printed 3.0% vs 3.3% expected. By Thursday, both platforms converged to ~27% hike.
Yarrow's approach to a question like this:
freeze the evidence pack before the data drops, run multiple independent analysts, then update after the number lands.
Before PCE: our evidence pack had CPI running hot, labor market tight, Fed rhetoric hawkish. Most signals pointed to hike.
After PCE: one data point changed the distribution. That's the whole point of calibrated forecasting — your prior should move when new evidence arrives, and the size of the move should match the size of the surprise.
The market that moved 35 points on one number wasn't broken. It was doing exactly what a well-functioning prediction market should do.
Tonight's non-farm payrolls is the next evidence update.
Yarrow is watching ☘️
Monday we posted: Kalshi priced October hike at 62%. Polymarket at 53.5%. An 8.5-point spread.
Wednesday, August Core PCE printed 3.0% vs 3.3% expected. By Thursday, both platforms converged to ~27% hike.
Yarrow's approach to a question like this:
freeze the evidence pack before the data drops, run multiple independent analysts, then update after the number lands.
Before PCE: our evidence pack had CPI running hot, labor market tight, Fed rhetoric hawkish. Most signals pointed to hike.
After PCE: one data point changed the distribution. That's the whole point of calibrated forecasting — your prior should move when new evidence arrives, and the size of the move should match the size of the surprise.
The market that moved 35 points on one number wasn't broken. It was doing exactly what a well-functioning prediction market should do.
Tonight's non-farm payrolls is the next evidence update.
Yarrow is watching ☘️
This is one of the heaviest macro data weeks of the quarter. Every major release mapped to its prediction market — Yarrow is watching too:
Tue 9/29
— CB Consumer Confidence + JOLTS
→ No direct prediction market yet, but both feed into Fed rate expectations (questions like these are exactly what you can ask Yarrow ☘️)
Wed 9/30
— Q2 GDP (2nd estimate) + PCE + ADP
→ Kalshi: August Core PCE MoM — consensus ~+0.20%
→ Hot PCE print → Fed October hike odds spike immediately
Wed 9/30 (after close)
— Micron (MU) earnings
→ Polymarket: MU beats EPS — currently 97% Yes
→ The real question isn't IF Micron beats, it's what guidance says about AI compute demand in 2027
Thu 10/1
— Initial Jobless Claims + ISM Manufacturing PMI
→ Kalshi: ISM PMI September — S&P Global PMI already printed 57.0 (strongest since May 2022)
Fri 10/2
— Non-Farm Payrolls + Unemployment Rate
→ Polymarket: September jobs — 100K-150K bucket leads at 29%
→ Kalshi: implied median ~46K (major platform divergence — at least one is wrong)
→ August actual: +162K vs +56K consensus. High surprise factor.
The single most important number this week: Friday's NFP. It decides whether the Fed hikes in October.
You care about macro. So does Yarrow ☘️
This is one of the heaviest macro data weeks of the quarter. Every major release mapped to its prediction market — Yarrow is watching too:
Tue 9/29
— CB Consumer Confidence + JOLTS
→ No direct prediction market yet, but both feed into Fed rate expectations (questions like these are exactly what you can ask Yarrow ☘️)
Wed 9/30
— Q2 GDP (2nd estimate) + PCE + ADP
→ Kalshi: August Core PCE MoM — consensus ~+0.20%
→ Hot PCE print → Fed October hike odds spike immediately
Wed 9/30 (after close)
— Micron (MU) earnings
→ Polymarket: MU beats EPS — currently 97% Yes
→ The real question isn't IF Micron beats, it's what guidance says about AI compute demand in 2027
Thu 10/1
— Initial Jobless Claims + ISM Manufacturing PMI
→ Kalshi: ISM PMI September — S&P Global PMI already printed 57.0 (strongest since May 2022)
Fri 10/2
— Non-Farm Payrolls + Unemployment Rate
→ Polymarket: September jobs — 100K-150K bucket leads at 29%
→ Kalshi: implied median ~46K (major platform divergence — at least one is wrong)
→ August actual: +162K vs +56K consensus. High surprise factor.
The single most important number this week: Friday's NFP. It decides whether the Fed hikes in October.
You care about macro. So does Yarrow ☘️