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Bought another 3000 $COIN for ~35$. I now hold 10,000 $COIN at ~47$ average price. Will stop buying here as it meet my goals. The bull case for Coinbase is obvious as I highlight in the thread below.
The bullish case for Coinbase thread.
Disclaimer: I own 4000 $COIN stocks at an average price of ~59.5.
Coinbase is in deep value territory if you believe in the future of crypto. Here are some reasons why 1/
I think we’re finally nearing the cycle bottom. Many signals suggest this. My two main scenarios is that we either hold strong support at $140 for $COIN today $BTC 57-60K, or see one last dump by August ($ETH to $1100-1200, $COIN to $100-$120). Coinbase and ETH will be huge next cycle with the tokenization boom. Best time to accumulate since 2022 IMO.
3% lower from this post but still true and even worse.
- Big tech earnings showed MASSIVE increase in CAPEX even more than expected. Valuations high
- War with Iran from possibility (post below) to ONGOING.
- Oil price jump big.
Few understood this $RTX and $LMT positions back then when Israel-Iran was just starting to become a massive conflict. I don't think Trump (+Gulf + Israel) have any incentives to stop here before Iran's regime is removed or massively weakened
Investment post: After ~15 of heavily investing in tech stocks and cryptocurrencies (almost all net worth), recent global events, particularly the Russia-Ukraine and Iran-Israel conflicts , made me change my strategy. I've opened positions in Lockheed Martin $LMT and Raytheon $RTX today. Here’s the thesis:
- The world is significantly more precarious lately, with nations like Iran advancing their missile technology.
- Defense systems like Raytheon's SM3 missiles and Lockheed's aircrafts have become crucial for intercepting missile strikes.
- The effectiveness of the Arrow system and SM3 in neutralizing ballistic missiles, as well as the F-35/F-16/F-15 in countering drones and cruise missiles, has been visibly demonstrated by US/Israel this week.
- This capability is now a critical requirement not just for European countries but also for other nations such as Saudi Arabia.
- Many European countries have not invested heavily in defense, but this is changing rapidly (Germany increases budget 2x almost!).
- The ongoing conflict in Ukraine and Middle East, has nearly depleted existing military stockpiles.
- The need to guard against potential threats from Russia and Iran will cause a surge in demand for air-to-air missiles, guidance systems, radars, and other defense technologies that companies like Raytheon and Lockheed specialize.
- At these valuations if thesis is wrong the stocks still look pretty solid.
- This is ofc not high-return investment but more of defensive move in uncertain times. I'm still very bullish on technology stocks and cryptocurrencies, reflecting my overall bullish outlook on these sectors.
US-Israel vs. Iran war summary so far:
1. US/Israel are absolutely dominating. Military doomers were dead wrong. Our military is incredibly strong and Iran is losing fast.
2. The new "low ammo" doomers are WRONG too. Inventories were low because of peacetime demand, not a lack of production capability. $RTX and others can produce missiles fast (it is very unlike building aircraft carriers, which takes long time).
3. Gulf states are waking up. Turns out they need this Iranian regime gone more than anyone. Expect them to pivot to a much more offensive strategy.
4. The US-UK "special relationship" is over. After everything the US has done for them since WW2, Starmer refusing base access is an absolute joke.
5. Market impact is very moderate. A crippled Iran is a massive net positive.
Dynamics described below happened very fast. $LINK 8% , $O 16 % ! $VICI 7.3% UP YTD already which is huge for REITs. Most software dump (e.g. $PLTR -22% YTD).
Local crypto bottom after Iran war starts very possible soon (even this weekend)
Haven’t posted in a while, but here’s my take and in short my thesis and how I’m positioning myself for the next few years (stocks + blockchain):
1. High-growth rotating into undervalued yield is inevitable.
Why? The market is currently pricing ~30–40% annual growth for some KEY stocks, and that’s just not realistic. AI is by far the most important technology of our time, no debate, but a lot of companies will fail to integrate it well so fast. Some are moving too fast, e.g., cutting headcount and “using AI” with low real utilization. When the market fully recognizes this, a repricing has to happen and even $QQQ can have a long dump. We’re likely near the end of a big bullish cycle (2009–2026), similar to 1982–1999 and 1950–1968.
Undervalued yield should see inflows in this environment especially if interest rates come down (think “gambling” $VICI, Realty Income $O. If you’re more risk-loving, some Hong Kong REITs like $LINK are way below book. Singapore REITs too, but most are fairly expensive.)
2. Blockchain tech will do well surprisingly.
Blockchain isn’t a “growth stock” story with P/E ratios, even though Wall Street often treats it that way. Traditional currencies are in real trouble because of endless debt and printing that will be even higher. “Digital gold” (Bitcoin) $BTC and networks like Ethereum with a currency $ETH that behaves more like money / a settlement layer can perform surprisingly well in this environment.
3. Coinbase is in a perfect position for this run and can do very well. They built an incredible company that can deliver fast and great products. I’d much rather be in $COIN in these years than Palantir $PLTR which is an amazing company, but the valuation is insane.
Thank you Jeff. This is my general thinking currently:
As I mentioned in posts before, I moved to being generally bearish a few months ago and I think rotation from high-growth into undervalued yield will continue.
Positioning-wise, I started this year with short "bubbly" software, and long non AI correlated yield ( $O, $VICI, $O already up a lot) so this year started great for me. Needles to say alt exposure is minor in this environment.
In terms of crypto I think infra will be the biggest play in the next few years as RWA becoming a real big use case ( after digital dollars). $ETH looks great as the settlement and security layer and also $COIN in this sense especially with Coinbase Tokenize efforts (I know we may disagree here). $SOL also starting to look interesting.
Unfortunately some of the related alts e.g., $ONDO have tokenomics that are almost uninventable currently.. but keeping an eye on some names as prices dropping.
I know we've disagreed on $COIN, but I've always respected your analysis.
What else do you like here for 3-5 year plays?
Yep CT thinks it’s conspiracy, but we’ve seen these flash crashes tons of times and every time they turned into a buying opportunity. Crashes happen because crypto still have relatively low liquidity (will change as the Street comes). 2K for $ETH looks like a great entry imo.
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"High-growth rotating into undervalued yield is inevitable." $VICI 2% up and $QQQ down 2% today. Software stocks getting destroyed since the post below. $COIN is dragged down but I think will surprise many (but we may go first to 100-140$ range).
Haven’t posted in a while, but here’s my take and in short my thesis and how I’m positioning myself for the next few years (stocks + blockchain):
1. High-growth rotating into undervalued yield is inevitable.
Why? The market is currently pricing ~30–40% annual growth for some KEY stocks, and that’s just not realistic. AI is by far the most important technology of our time, no debate, but a lot of companies will fail to integrate it well so fast. Some are moving too fast, e.g., cutting headcount and “using AI” with low real utilization. When the market fully recognizes this, a repricing has to happen and even $QQQ can have a long dump. We’re likely near the end of a big bullish cycle (2009–2026), similar to 1982–1999 and 1950–1968.
Undervalued yield should see inflows in this environment especially if interest rates come down (think “gambling” $VICI, Realty Income $O. If you’re more risk-loving, some Hong Kong REITs like $LINK are way below book. Singapore REITs too, but most are fairly expensive.)
2. Blockchain tech will do well surprisingly.
Blockchain isn’t a “growth stock” story with P/E ratios, even though Wall Street often treats it that way. Traditional currencies are in real trouble because of endless debt and printing that will be even higher. “Digital gold” (Bitcoin) $BTC and networks like Ethereum with a currency $ETH that behaves more like money / a settlement layer can perform surprisingly well in this environment.
3. Coinbase is in a perfect position for this run and can do very well. They built an incredible company that can deliver fast and great products. I’d much rather be in $COIN in these years than Palantir $PLTR which is an amazing company, but the valuation is insane.
Very hard to be bullish currently.
-Big tech earnings show a massive increase in capex.
-Valuations are already extremely high so a lot of downside if cloud growth slows.
-War with Iran is a real possibility in the next few days/weeks, given US military assets in the region.
Haven’t posted in a while, but here’s my take and in short my thesis and how I’m positioning myself for the next few years (stocks + blockchain):
1. High-growth rotating into undervalued yield is inevitable.
Why? The market is currently pricing ~30–40% annual growth for some KEY stocks, and that’s just not realistic. AI is by far the most important technology of our time, no debate, but a lot of companies will fail to integrate it well so fast. Some are moving too fast, e.g., cutting headcount and “using AI” with low real utilization. When the market fully recognizes this, a repricing has to happen and even $QQQ can have a long dump. We’re likely near the end of a big bullish cycle (2009–2026), similar to 1982–1999 and 1950–1968.
Undervalued yield should see inflows in this environment especially if interest rates come down (think “gambling” $VICI, Realty Income $O. If you’re more risk-loving, some Hong Kong REITs like $LINK are way below book. Singapore REITs too, but most are fairly expensive.)
2. Blockchain tech will do well surprisingly.
Blockchain isn’t a “growth stock” story with P/E ratios, even though Wall Street often treats it that way. Traditional currencies are in real trouble because of endless debt and printing that will be even higher. “Digital gold” (Bitcoin) $BTC and networks like Ethereum with a currency $ETH that behaves more like money / a settlement layer can perform surprisingly well in this environment.
3. Coinbase is in a perfect position for this run and can do very well. They built an incredible company that can deliver fast and great products. I’d much rather be in $COIN in these years than Palantir $PLTR which is an amazing company, but the valuation is insane.
For reference I was very long $QQQ in recent years (including mentioning AI revenues coming.. ) teapawt.net/ZachLight16/status/161…
CT vibes aside Ethereum had an incredible 12 months: stablecoin MC ~doubled, tokenized T-bills + private credit hit $10B+, Coinbase BlackRock all in, Base onboarding millions, gas fees very low. The layers design looks winning big. $ETH price just starting to reflect this..
This account’s mainly about crypto/stocks but can’t agree more. I spent years in big tech no way we be leading tech (by far) without H1Bs. Even Elon had H1B… imagine if he didn’t. Seeing this level of dumbness in the Republican Party, Democrats put a pure anti-Semite with zero qualifications that leads NYC mayor polls, and Kirk getting shot just for talking - it honestly makes me more worried about our future than ever before.
Imo: stay safe this week. Markets priced a Fed cut (25 bp base case, some think 50). Feels like upside’s baked in with S&P500 4 months non-stop up only, wouldn’t be surprised by a correction if the Fed isn’t super bullish tomorrow. Also late-Sep/early-Oct vibes usually negative
Coinbase card is probably one of the best ever: 4% cashback (only 200K+ assets on Coinbase) and 2% even if no assets. But I hope that in 5-10 years I would not need a TradFi card and would mainly use Coinbase payment solutions (like in Shopify now) and pay directly onchain