Ride the big waves 🌊 | Master the cycle Macro analysis | Higher timeframes | Trade less, earn more. BTC & Altcoins
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$OTHERS/BTC (1M) – This is massive. 👀
Back in March, I said two things had preceded the last major altseasons:
→ OTHERS/BTC breaks out
→ Squeeze Momentum turns green
The breakout already happened.
And now we’re seeing the first green momentum bar forming since 2022.
Only 4 days left until the monthly candle closes.
Look at the previous times this happened.
2017 → altcoins exploded.
2021 → altcoins exploded.
After 4 years of Bitcoin dominance, the same conditions are starting to line up again.
You might not be ready for what comes next. 🌊
OTHERS/BTC (1M) - The signal that started the last 2 altseasons is forming again.
Zoom out.
Every major altcoin expansion started the same way:
🔹OTHERS/BTC breaks out of a falling wedge
🔹Squeeze Momentum turns green
When those two align, altcoins start massively outperforming Bitcoin.
2017 🚀
2021 🚀
But this cycle was different.
After the 2021 peak, the Squeeze Momentum stayed red for years.
That meant:
🔹Prolonged Bitcoin dominance
🔹No real altseason
Now something interesting is happening.
OTHERS/BTC just broke out of another multi-year falling wedge.
And momentum is rising again.
If the Squeeze Momentum flips green, the same conditions that triggered previous altseasons could return.
And when that happens…
The biggest moves usually start when nobody expects them.
$BTC (1D) - currently being rejected at the range lows
Support still holding in both price and RSI.
Lose both and the deeper reset is next
$BTC (1D) – Can this hold for a short-term bounce?
BTC is sitting right on the lower end of the falling structure.
At the same time:
- RSI is back near support.
- Stoch RSI is fully reset and crossing bullish.
That’s enough for me to respect the possibility of a bounce here.
Hold this area and a short-term bounce is very much in play.
Lose it, and the deeper reset continues.
$SILVER (1M) – Stopped out.
Two weeks ago I bought silver around monthly support and the 21M SMA.
My stop was around $53.
That level is gone, so I’m out.
Gold is starting to look very similar, so I wouldn’t be surprised to see support break there too.
For silver, $48 is the next area I’m watching.
I’d rather step aside and look again lower than sit through a broken setup.
$SILVER – Back in.
Earlier this year I took profits around $94 after the huge run.
Since then, silver has cooled off hard and is now back at monthly support + the 21M SMA.
Stoch RSI is fully reset too.
So I bought some again here with a stop around $53.
Back then I was protecting profits.
Now I like the risk/reward again.
$BTC (1W) – What if the boring part lasts longer?
Look at the previous cycle before the halving.
BTC kept alternating between expansion and consolidation.
Two of those ranges lasted around 60 days.
The longer one lasted around 200 days.
Now BTC is consolidating again.
If the shorter rhythm repeats, this range could resolve around November.
If we get another long consolidation like the previous cycle, we could be looking at April 2027 instead.
Either way, the lesson is the same:
Bull markets spend a lot more time going sideways than people remember.
Don’t confuse boredom with the end of the cycle.
If this range drags on, keep buying near the bottom of the range.
$BTC (1W) – The signal that led to every major pullback.
During the previous bull market, every confirmed weekly Stoch RSI bearish cross led to a correction.
Early in the cycle, pullbacks were relatively shallow: ~20–22%.
Later in the cycle, they got deeper: 30%+.
There was only one exception:
June 2025.
The bearish cross confirmed, but price barely followed through.
BTC pulled back just 12% and continued higher.
Now we’ve got another weekly bearish cross.
If this cycle follows the usual pattern, a ~20% correction from the recent high would bring BTC back towards $70K.
But if this turns into another June 2025, we could still get one more push higher first.
Based on the historical pattern, the deeper cooldown is the more likely scenario.
What do you think?
Bigger cooldown or next rally to $93K?
$USDT.D (1W) – One more bounce first?
USDT dominance is reacting from support and Stoch RSI is crossing bullish from the lows.
So some short-term pressure on crypto wouldn’t surprise me.
If the previous cycle keeps rhyming, USDT.D could push back towards the 8% area before the bigger breakdown starts.
For me, that wouldn’t be a bad thing.
That would give us another window to add to altcoin positions at better prices.
The bigger picture hasn’t changed.
Lose support after that and it’s game on for crypto. 🌊
$BTC (1D) – Can this hold for a short-term bounce?
BTC is sitting right on the lower end of the falling structure.
At the same time:
- RSI is back near support.
- Stoch RSI is fully reset and crossing bullish.
That’s enough for me to respect the possibility of a bounce here.
Hold this area and a short-term bounce is very much in play.
Lose it, and the deeper reset continues.
$BTC (1W) – The bull market retest.
After the 2022 bottom, BTC reclaimed the 50-week SMA.
At the same time, weekly RSI reclaimed 45.
From there, both became support throughout the bull market.
Now look at 2026.
BTC is back above the 50-week SMA.
RSI reclaimed 45, broke its multi-year downtrend…
…and is now retesting that breakout.
If BTC is about to put in its next higher low, you know where to look.
$BTC (2W) – Confirmed. 👀
On Oct 12, I said the 21 WMA crossing back above the 21 SMA would be another confirmation that the bottom was in.
That crossover is now confirmed.
Every previous cycle, this signal came after the cycle low and it never gave false signals.
2026 bottom confirmed.
$BTC (2W) – Another confirmation forming.
21 WMA back above the 21 SMA = bull market confirmation.
We’ve seen it after every major cycle bottom.
And now it’s happening again.
The ribbon is turning green.
If you’re still waiting for new cycle lows, I’d let that idea go.
$OTHERS (2W) – More patience needed.
Last week the post-breakout retest was still holding.
It didn’t at the 2W close.
So for now, the breakout looks more like a fakeout and altcoins probably need more time.
That’s not necessarily a bad thing.
More time here means more time to build positions at cheap prices.
The bigger picture hasn’t changed.
I’m still very bullish on 2027. 🌊
$OTHERS (2W) – Post breakout retest
Five days until the candle closes.
So far, OTHERS is holding the multi-year downtrend it just broke above.
A lot of people still think altcoins are dead.
I don't.
In my opinion 2027 will be massive for altcoins 🌊
$TOTAL (1W) – Patience it is. 👀
Last week I asked whether this cycle would move faster or make us wait again.
For now, it looks like the latter.
The reclaim didn’t hold, just like in the previous cycle.
Momentum is rolling over too, with Stoch RSI now confirming a bearish cross.
But the RSI breakout is still being retested.
So I’m not changing the bigger view.
If TOTAL spends some time building a base here, that’s healthy.
Last cycle did the same before the next major leg higher.
$TOTAL (1W) – History rhyming again?
TOTAL is starting to look a lot like the previous cycle.
Back then we saw a bullish divergence at the bottom.
Price made a lower low, while RSI made a higher low.
Then RSI broke its downtrend and TOTAL reclaimed the same level it had been rejected from before the cycle bottom.
But that reclaim didn’t hold.
Momentum faded, price slipped back below and TOTAL spent around 200 days moving sideways before the next leg higher.
This cycle, we’re seeing a very similar setup.
Bullish divergence at the bottom.
RSI downtrend broken.
Same key level reclaimed.
The difference?
The reclaim is currently still holding.
Momentum is starting to cool again, so I wouldn’t be surprised if TOTAL needs more time here.
And honestly, building a base at this level would be very healthy for continuation higher.
Now we find out if this cycle moves faster… or if patience is needed again.
$ETH (3D) – The comparison is weakening.
Last week I showed how similar this setup looked to July 2025.
But there’s an important difference now.
ETH is losing the support area that held last time.
RSI is also slipping below 50. Another level that held during the July reset.
If ETH confirms below this support, I’m looking toward $2,120 next.
Buy orders are waiting.
$ETH (3D) - This looks familiar
ETH has been going sideways for almost two months.
But while everyone gets bored, momentum has been resetting.
Stoch RSI is back at the lows.
RSI is back around 50.
Price is still holding the breakout area.
Now look at July 2025.
ETH spent 2 months doing almost the exact same thing in the same price range.
Last time, 63 days of sideways action ended with an explosion.
We’re at 60 now. 👀
$BTC (3D) – This is what I’m watching next.
I’ve been talking about a higher-timeframe cooldown for weeks.
I still think the bigger trend is bullish and the bottom is in.
But in the coming weeks I’m expecting a deeper reset.
Something like this would make a lot of sense:
Right shoulder forms.
Momentum resets.
Then the next leg higher begins.
$75K–$71K is the area I’m watching.
I already have buy orders waiting at S2 and S3.
Don’t fear the pullback.
Prepare for it.
$INJ (1M) – Still mirroring the previous cycle.
INJ is currently battling with the $8 resistance zone.
Last cycle, price spent around 6 months fighting this same area before finally breaking through.
What came next was a run towards $52.
So if INJ gets boring here for a while, don’t mistake that for weakness.
Sometimes the market just needs time to build pressure.
Break $8 and the next leg begins.
First area I’m watching after that: $13–$16.
$KAS (1M) – Zoom out.
KAS bounced out of the bottom range, but got rejected at the multi-year downtrend.
That’s fine.
Don’t get distracted by the daily noise.
See it as an opportunity to buy more.
There’s not much room left between support and that downtrend.
Break it, and I expect KAS to move fast.
Looking forward to 2027👀
$TOTAL (1W) – History rhyming again?
TOTAL is starting to look a lot like the previous cycle.
Back then we saw a bullish divergence at the bottom.
Price made a lower low, while RSI made a higher low.
Then RSI broke its downtrend and TOTAL reclaimed the same level it had been rejected from before the cycle bottom.
But that reclaim didn’t hold.
Momentum faded, price slipped back below and TOTAL spent around 200 days moving sideways before the next leg higher.
This cycle, we’re seeing a very similar setup.
Bullish divergence at the bottom.
RSI downtrend broken.
Same key level reclaimed.
The difference?
The reclaim is currently still holding.
Momentum is starting to cool again, so I wouldn’t be surprised if TOTAL needs more time here.
And honestly, building a base at this level would be very healthy for continuation higher.
Now we find out if this cycle moves faster… or if patience is needed again.
$ETH (3D) - This looks familiar
ETH has been going sideways for almost two months.
But while everyone gets bored, momentum has been resetting.
Stoch RSI is back at the lows.
RSI is back around 50.
Price is still holding the breakout area.
Now look at July 2025.
ETH spent 2 months doing almost the exact same thing in the same price range.
Last time, 63 days of sideways action ended with an explosion.
We’re at 60 now. 👀