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NBA🏀 Lock #1 (Oct. 27th) Ja Morant o 5.5 Assists (-150 MGM) ❤️ IF YOU’RE TAILING Morant is 2-for-2 on this number in Portland, handing out 8 assists in 23 minutes in the opener and 7 more in 27 minutes in Sacramento. He's getting there without heavy minutes. In his 20 games last season he averaged 8.1 assists, so this line sits well below his normal output. The matchup should give him extra possessions. The Lakers are pulling down just 37 rebounds a game, the worst mark in the league, and Utah just grabbed 20 offensive boards against them. Portland is averaging 50.5 rebounds a night, so more second chances mean more trips for Morant to create. LA's games have also been shootouts, with the Lakers scoring 125 or more in all three games while giving up 115 a night. More made shots means more of his passes become assists. Portland's injury report helps too. Shaedon Sharpe is still out and Scoot Henderson is questionable with an ankle injury, leaving one fewer ball handler to share touches with. The Blazers also come in rested against a Lakers team that played Sunday, and the line is only 2.5 to 3.5 with a total around 236, so this should be a fast, competitive game. The concern is a crowded backcourt, since Jrue Holiday out-assisted him in Sacramento and Damian Lillard needs the ball too. But Morant still finished with 7 that night, and fewer guards available tonight means more touches for him. 6+ assists is a number I'm comfortable backing. 📊 @HOFApp

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NBA🏀 Lock #2 (Oct. 26th) Tyrese Haliburton o 9.5 Assists (-125 FD) ❤️ IF YOU’RE TAILING Haliburton is averaging 9.7 assists through three games back from the Achilles, and the underlying numbers say more are coming. He was generating 17.5 potential assists per game through his first two contests, so his teammates have been leaving dimes on the table. The track record backs it up. Since 2022-23 he's averaged 10.1 assists and reached double digits in 115 of 199 games, a 58% clip. He opened this year with 12 in New Orleans and followed a quieter 7 against Dallas with 10 in Sunday's win over Brooklyn. Milwaukee is a great setup for a pace-pushing point guard. The Bucks are 0-3, play at the league's third-fastest pace and sit in the bottom five defensively. Chicago just dropped 132 on them. Indiana's offense is humming in front of Haliburton, too. The Pacers hung 136 on Brooklyn last night while going 21-of-43 from three, and that's exactly how his passes turn into assists. The total is up at 239.5, one of the biggest numbers on the board, and Indiana is a 4.5-point road favorite, so this should stay competitive. The Pacers are also still without backup point guard T.J. McConnell and Ben Sheppard, which keeps the ball in Haliburton's hands. The concern is the back-to-back, as Indiana could manage his minutes this early in his comeback. But Haliburton said after Sunday's game that he plans to play, and in a fast game against one of the league's worst defenses, 10+ assists is a number I'm comfortable backing. 📊 @HOFApp

NBA🏀 Lock #1 (Oct. 26th) Cameron Boozer o 8.5 Rebounds (-145 DK) ❤️ IF YOU’RE TAILING Boozer has grabbed double-digit rebounds in all three games of his NBA career, going for 11, 13 and 11. That's 3-for-3 on this number, and he's cleared it by at least two boards every time. He pulled down 11 in Sacramento last night even while shooting 6-of-21, and 11 of his 13 at Golden State came on the defensive glass. Whether his shot is falling or not, the rebounds show up. He's already done it against this exact team. Boozer had 11 boards in the opener against Utah, and Memphis dominated the glass that night, outrebounding the Jazz 63-44. Utah was a soft rebounding team all of last season, allowing 45.7 boards per game (23rd) while giving up a league-worst 126 points a night. Now they're even thinner up front, with Jusuf Nurkić out with a foot injury and Tony Bradley also sidelined. The game script should keep him on the floor. Utah is only a 1.5-point favorite with a 238.5 total, so this projects as a close, fast-paced game with plenty of missed shots to chase. The concern is that both teams are on the second night of a back-to-back, and Zach Edey is expected back after sitting out Sunday for ankle management. But Boozer already grabbed 11 against Utah with the full frontcourt available, and the Jazz don't have the bigs to keep him off the glass. 9+ rebounds is a number I'm comfortable backing. 📊 @HOFApp

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NFL 🏈 Lock #1 (Oct. 26th) George Pickens o 59.5 Rec Yards (-129 DK) ❤️ if you’re tailing!!! Pickens has cleared this number in four straight games, piling up 24 catches for 360 yards and a touchdown on 38 targets in that stretch. That's 90 yards per game, 30 above this line. He's seeing a target on 23.2% of his routes with 2.2 yards per route run, and he commands a massive 31.5% of Dallas' total air yards with an 11.3 average depth of target. Philadelphia's secondary has slipped from last season and is conceding an elevated 13.9 yards per reception to wide receivers. Pickens also hung a 9-146-1 line on this same Eagles defense last season, so the blueprint exists. Dallas carries an implied team total near 25 points, and Dak threw it 54 times last week, so the volume is there. The honest risk: Pickens has been nursing a shoulder issue since Week 2, and Philadelphia's corner trio of Quinyon Mitchell, Riq Woolen and Cooper DeJean is legitimately good. But he was upgraded to full participation and said flatly he's playing, and 59.5 is a discount off his four-week average. @HOFApp