Investing for RSI @ https://xitter.cf/t.co/NPWFvYwIGi. Advising @ProsperaGlobal. Uneducated. Godmode (first AI agent w 1M+ users) | @andysz

SF
Joined November 2017
AI’s Physical Bottlenecks: GPU Markets and the Chip Investment Thesis Join us this morning, Thursday, 22nd October: • 9:30 AM PT — Evan Conrad, Co-founder & CEO, SF Compute (@evanjconrad) • 10:15 AM PT — Lonis Hamaili, Managing Partner, Cambrian (@_Lonis_) 𝕏 Chat is Live on Screen, Come Join Us: xitter.cf/i/broadcasts/1OxwbnrPV…
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MTS
@MTSliveOct 14
Cambrian Capital's @_Lonis_ explains why he's extremely bearish on software stocks, as AI labs develop internal models far more powerful than anything they release publicly: "We’re super bearish. We’re hyper bearish. If you remove the memory companies, most of the enterprise value in AI currently is just software companies. Chip designers and networking designers. It’s just the first thing the labs will compete with." "There will be this larger and larger chasm between the quality of the models they’re able to release externally and the ones they have internally. They will just have way better models internally that they’ll use to design better chips. It’s very hard to compete with that for any software company." "These software companies are trading at way higher multiples than the physical parts companies. Going forward, we really don’t see that making sense. If you have physical inputs and you need to reinvest, at least you’re worth the higher multiples because you have some type of moat."
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MTS
@MTSliveOct 14
Cambrian Capital's @_Lonis_ explains why a $150 silicon wafer that turns into $22,000 worth of chips could be one of the biggest overlooked investment opportunities in AI: "We’re somewhat less interested in energy because there’s so much latent energy and so much latent tooling you can pull in." "The problem with the semi supply chain, the silicon, is that there’s no latent supply. Everything is almost in short supply. You have all these bidders for these very scarce inputs." "We like to go really far up in the supply chain, so go to suppliers of the suppliers. It’s less priced in there and fewer people are looking. Silicon wafers is one example. A small oligopoly of makers that are making these $150 hyper-thin, hyper-smooth silicon wafers that make up the chips." "They have the least price elastic customer base of any part of the supply chain, because they make a $150 product that turns into $22,000 worth of chip. So they can almost arbitrarily double, triple prices in theory, and it wouldn’t really matter to the end margin of the chip maker."
AGI is coming, and hundreds of AI supply chain oligopolies trade at only 1–5x revenue & 5–15x earnings Short AI timelines could nuke software moats. Key physical chokepoints still remain Launching Cambrian: an AI hedge fund seeded with ~$70M. Backed by Metaplanet & Jaan Tallinn
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@MTSliveOct 14
Cambrian Capital's @_Lonis_ argues that most investors are unknowingly positioned to lose money if AGI arrives sooner than expected, even those holding the S&P 500: "Most of the assets most people hold is actually not only not exposed to short AI timelines, but are actually negatively exposed." "If AI comes very quickly, it will be very bad for a lot of venture portfolios. Obviously bonds will do very poorly. But also S&P might do quite poorly, because we expect interest rates to rise, and so multiples will come way down." "Currently, multiples are around 20 times earnings, and that can easily go down to 10 or less." "We’re trying to build a portfolio that takes this scenario seriously of short AI timelines, and figure out what are the assets that actually will do well in that world."
AGI is coming, and hundreds of AI supply chain oligopolies trade at only 1–5x revenue & 5–15x earnings Short AI timelines could nuke software moats. Key physical chokepoints still remain Launching Cambrian: an AI hedge fund seeded with ~$70M. Backed by Metaplanet & Jaan Tallinn
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explore the solar system & galaxy - every planet, moon, asteroid, comet - almost every spacecraft sol.louisarge.com
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Lonis retweeted
Dwarkesh Patel
@dwarkesh_spJun 7
In medieval times, within the arms race of ever more demonic torture devices, some sadistic genius came up with the idea of the Little Ease. This was a prison cell built so small in every dimension that a grown man could not stand upright in it nor lie down at full length nor properly sit. The pain is relentless and without relief and inflicted by one's own body. Prisoners were known to go insane within a few days. A stay at the Little Ease was considered even more cruel than the rack, the thumbscrew, and the other ghoulish machinery of the Tower of London. A breeding pig will spend her whole life in a version of that box. These are social, roaming creatures (more intelligent than dogs) who will never leave this corset of steel. They have been selectively bred to be bigger than their frames can support. Yet we put them in cells so confined that they cannot comfortably sit, and their attempts to do so (for example, by sneaking their limbs into adjacent stalls) reliably lead to fractures and sprains. They cannot sweat, yet have nothing to roll around in to cool themselves off. Except their own manure, which (contrary to the common misconception) they are so averse to (thanks to their strong sense of smell) that new sows will often suffer from constipation to avoid soiling the space from which they eat and sleep. Here is how the writer Matthew Scully described what saw at one of Smithfield’s “gestation barn”: > “Sores, tumors, ulcers, pus pockets, lesions, cysts, bruises, torn ears, swollen legs everywhere. Roaring, groaning, tail biting, fighting, and other “Vices,” as they’re called in the industry. Frenzied chewing on bars and chains, stereotypical “vacuum” chewing on nothing at all, stereotypical rooting and nest building with imaginary straw. And “social defeat,” lots of it, in every third or fourth stall some completely broken being you know is alive only because she blinks and stares up at you … creatures beyond the power of pity to help or indifference to make more miserable, dead to the world except as heaps of flesh into which the [insemination] rod may be stuck once more and more flesh reproduced.” — The Save Our Bacon Act is trying to unroll the few state protections we have against this barbaric cruelty - for example California’s Prop 12 - which banned the sale of pork from pigs kept in gestation crates. It’s incredibly important we don’t end up with this sort of federal preemption. SOB will not only kill the most important animal welfare related laws in the US of the past decade, but more importantly, it will also restrict ALL future legislative progress (aka how the animal welfare movement has gotten its biggest wins). The Senate is currently deciding whether to add the SOB Act to the Farm Bill. With relatively little money now, we can discourage the most pivotal senators in the Ag committee from backing this amendment. Defeating this bill is even more important given the amount of philanthropic funding I expect to come online in the next year or two. It will plausibly be over 10x more expensive to repeal SOB than to prevent it from passing in the first place. All that money that could be spent transforming our society's relationship to mass animal suffering will instead have to be spent just getting us back to where we are right now. That's why money spent now fighting this bill (and I mean right NOW) is so effective. If you’re in a position to donate six figures, please DM me.
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First episode of the Próspera Podcast is out - with @waitbutwhy - Tim's impressions from his Próspera trip - What Próspera learned from the US Framers - Where Tim and Erick think Próspera can go from here Listen here: youtu.be/GzQxmWp2TYQ
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The largest chess tournament in Central American history is launching as part of Próspera, in partnership with @FIDE_chess Total prize pool: 2 ₿TC Winner: 1 ₿TC We're looking forward to welcoming the world's top 20 chess players @HansMokeNiemann, @chessleinier, and more!
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Próspera World Tour continues: In January, the core team will visit major cities to host Próspera events: Berlin - Jan 7: luma.com/ukqvnest London - Jan 9: luma.com/w2jap3yu SF - Jan 21: luma.com/prospera-in-sf
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if you are in high school or college, and you are hyper ambitious and don't know where to start, this podcast will explode your world view most peoples outlet, including mine, was to study as much as possible which is obviously not the fastest path to something great
The most capable individuals are learning and shipping 1000x faster using AI. I sat down with Gabriel Petersson (@gabriel1) - a high school dropout who self-taught Math & ML with AI and is now an AI Researcher at OpenAI. We deep dive into the most important traits to thrive in the age of infinite leverage: – How to learn hard skills insanely fast with AI – Dropping out in Sweden → America on the O-1 @extraordinary visa - How to get hired by the best when you are a nobody – How to turn prompting into a daily habit – Why America is still the launchpad for ambitious builders - Breaking down Gabriel's most iconic tweets Curiosity + Agency + AI will take you further than any legacy credential Timestamps: 01:12 - Swedish high-school dropout → OpenAI research scientist 03:04 - First startup & sales hacks: door-knocking, instant A/B tests 05:28 - Couch-life grind & learning to code under pressure 08:16 - Learning by doing: top-down vs bottom-up; what schools miss about AI 12:10 - Recursive learning with ChatGPT: ELI5, intuition, gap-filling 16:20 - Prompting habits, make AI your always-on tutor 22:16 - Research workflow: papers, code inserts; “shortcuts to foundations” 27:13 - Feedback obsession, elite code reviews, AI as reviewer 33:12 - Path to the US🇺🇸 Midjourney, getting the O-1 @extraordinary visa, shipping demos that signal skill 39:29 - bypass recruiters via proof of work, risk-free trials & academia hot takes 55:06 - why San Francisco; visas & how to move; final pep talk
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∞ INFINITE GAMES → DETAILS LIVE ∞ Feb 1–Mar 31, 2026 IG26 celebrates network societies, augmented athletes, longevity enthusiasts, techno-optimists pushing human capability; for families and community! In the frontier jurisdiction of @ProsperaGlobal 🧵 Pick your game below
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For the first time in history, you can pay your government taxes & fees in full over Bitcoin Mainnet & Lightning, now via @blinkbtc.
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Próspera World Tour 🌍 After successful Próspera meetups in NYC, Singapore & Stockholm, we're now expanding to cities around the world. Register your interest below!
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The Colosseum celebrated empires. The Olympics celebrate nations. INFINITE GAMES celebrate network societies. Enhanced athletes. Tech-augmented humans. The edge that pushes the frontiers of human capability. ♾️Play long-term.games Forever Feb → Mar 2026, Roatán HN
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TODAY WE LAUNCH SORA 2, THE WORLDS BEST VIDEO GENERATION MODEL feature you and your friends with raw real world physics, putting an end to the uncanny ai vibes

let me show you how insane our model is, featuring me & sam altman:
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Indians, I know it’s been a tough day. But realize your battle is now about everything good and decent in America. Together we will prevail. If not, America is gone. Your fortunes are now the fortunes of the country, and there is something liberating about that. 🇺🇸🇮🇳
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"Every new paradigm starts small—300 years ago, the concept of law applied equally to everyone was foreign. Today, the idea of decentralized for-profit governance providers is an n=1 phenomenon." - @_Lonis_
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Próspera is coming to NYC! On Wed the 17th of Sep, Próspera CEO and founder @erickbrimen and growth @_Lonis_ will host our first in-person NYC event Covering: * Próspera updates * What the US Founders got right (and wrong) * Insurance companies as market regulator * etc Link 👇
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This fall, we have five events coming up in Próspera, covering biotech, crypto, and much more! More about each ⬇️
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Introducing Solana Prospera - 4-week acceleration program for founders, investors and creators curious about Solana, wellness and biotech. Program will happen in @Prosperahn on an island of Roatan in Honduras from the 11th of October to the 10th of November. 🧵
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