Throwing spaghetti at the wall to see what sticks
Boston, MA
Joined January 2017
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Somewhere there’s a PE fund rolling up a bunch of niche single purpose robotics like this
youtu.be/oGapuxMg-Cg?is=wUeM…
Token volumes continue to increase, as expected -- can't think of anything that stops the growth here short/medium term
I'm getting 40-50% of the US build out is now operational -- is this reasonable?
As more racks come online the cost per token should drop sharply, no?
If consumers choose AI agents as their preferred method of ‘search’ that’s pretty huge for the OTAs, no?
Here at Expedia, we love planning trips. Soon, your personal AI agent will too. We're joining @Muse: tell it where you're headed and it can work with Expedia to sort your hotels, and everything in between.
Narrative 1 - AI industry execs wants to “slow down”
Narrative 2 - Meta Muse is the “ChatGPT moment” for AI Agents
I feel narrative #2 should be getting more attention… IF this is the moment we shift from training (GPU intensive) towards AI workflows (CPU intensive)
Proliferation of AI agents makes going long CPUs a no brainer trade? $INTC $AMD
What’s the counter argument to this
$INTC CEO this week: Intel's current capacity is satisfying only ~50% of customer requirements.
"CPU is so high demand, I can only provide 50% of what the customer wants. Many CEOs called me up, and I had to apologize: ‘I’m not manufacturing enough for them"
"Given the accelerating rate of AI capability development, it’s my worry that in 6–12 months such a swarm could be capable of taking over the entire internet with a persistent botnet (potentially causing hundreds of billions of dollars in damage)"
An actual Y2K type event would be bullish gold, no?
We Must Pace the Frontier: I’ve written a new essay on why the AI industry should slow down, with a three-part plan for doing so.
Anthropic is unilaterally committing to the first of these steps. We’ll provide third-party evaluators with permanent, employee-level access to our systems, so that they can verify adherence to our safety measures, report on incidents, and assess models’ alignment during training.
You can read the full post here: darioamodei.com/post/we-must…
I asked Muse how it can help me save money and it provided a pretty eye opening list. At this point I believe it actually will save people lots of money.
Examples:
- Bill reminders, tracking when free trials end, cable bill tactics, health care open enrollment / tracking FSA before year end
-Describe an item you want, and it monitors FB Marketplace for you (killer feature)
- Proactively drafts emails for ‘price adjustments’ at retailers, negotiations on medical bills, travel complaints, etc
It’s going to be much easier to monetize a consumer AI product that saves people money vs charging for an LLM
Tech bros are championing AI agents but I think the elderly would benefit most from having an agent handle all their digital tasks
Improper disposal of Zyns is becoming an environmental issue with no clear solution to stop or clean it up
Lunchtime at a fast casual restaurant is predominantly young working professionals who will wait in line for upwards of 10-15 minutes on their lunch break — mobile ordering has existed for years, why is this feature being underutilized?
A key ingredient for a stock to become a meme is the ease at which someone can use their imagination to forecast revenue
Everyone looking at $TTWO is doing the math on Copies sold * Price + Online sales-- the overlap between retail traders & GTA end users is extremely high
This adds a premium to whatever multiple you want to put on the company, there is real reason to believe herds of retail investors flock to the name
Takes 3-4 weeks to create a habit, it's possible the median time spent playing the game for the first month is 40+ hours
+ I'm sure members from the Zynga team have shared some insights on consumer behavior & retention that the Rockstar team didn't know last GTA
With this backdrop it feels possible they can get at least 60%+ of people to voluntarily pay for month 2, not to mention the X % of people that will continue to forget to cancel
These are really interesting geopolitical assets for 3 companies to own, can't help but think countries will begin to ban the sale of their citizens financial data to a company with alliances to a foreign country
+ Elon is going to juice the algo to promote unfathomable levels of FOMO
I like this pitch
My 2 cents: it doesn’t seem like $AVIO is great at any one thing (slow cadence of launches / decent payload capacity) BUT is 1 of N companies that can launch satellites amidst a worldwide space race
1.5x EV/Sales vs RKLB at 58x
+Defense missiles nice bonus
It has been a while since I found a compelling idea. But I recently found one that I legitimately think could be a 10-bagger. The company is Avio S.p.A (AVIO IM).
newmooncap.substack.com/p/av…
Have we witnessed any notable behavioral changes from retail investors since the advent of AI?
AI skews toward conservative, diversified portfolios. At the margins it seems this will decrease inflows to unproven small cap names & put a higher multiple on safer large caps?
I think $LULU investors should be nervous the brand is levered to questionable materials
Rhetoric like this will only grow over time, I find it difficult to believe brand loyalty is a moat against health concerns
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