Research on economics, history, and tech @Ryan_Research | Special focus on Ireland
Joined October 2012
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Peter Ryan retweeted
Concentration grew through the latter-half of ZIRP, up until the ill-fated WeWork IPO — a high profile warning about the "growth at all costs" mentality.
From 2019 to 2022, VC concentration fell as investors squeezed down into Seed, searching for a clean slate. New frontiers, and a reset on price inflation; although capital supply meant prices remained high.
The market bifurcated in 2022, as smaller LPs suffered a liquidity crunch which larger LPs barely noticed. The market has quickly been dominated by scaled allocation, chasing easy narratives.
As a result, 2023 to 2026 has seen successive ATHs in market concentration, as LP capital has crowded into megafunds and obvious growth opportunities.
Credit to @harmonic_ai for the data.
For every $100 the seven megafunds invested between 2005 and 2023, only about $11–19 matched the market-wide distribution of capital.
So far in 2026, it's about $38.
This group has gone from a set of differentiated firms to something that looks more like a VC megacap index.
Data sourced from @harmonic_ai.
Peter Ryan retweeted
Everyone predicted this except The Management.
This was so foreseeable (indeed my early prediction when ChatGPT came out) but a lot of tech people have a hard time understanding that the hypothetical enriching use of a tech loses out to the lazy corner cutting use 99.9% of the time theguardian.com/technology/2…
Peter Ryan retweeted
Article surfaces about the inadequacy of the "supply" narrative.
"As long as politicians insist
“more supply” is the only solu-
tion, while ignoring demand from
investors, their housing policies
will keep missing the mark."
drive.google.com/file/d/1mnB…
This chart gives all of the data informing the result:
Peter Ryan retweeted
What makes homes so expensive in San Francisco, NYC and LA? High earners bidding up scarce housing, zoning that limits new building, and the amenities and density that make a city desirable but also slow and costly to build in. How much each factor matters is controversial.
Peter Ryan retweeted
Had @RobinWigg join me on Better Offline to explain how both corporate and sovereign bonds work, why you should care, and what you need to know about the tech industry’s growing debt.
youtube.com/watch?v=qzHFEbqa…
Peter Ryan retweeted
The term "housing crisis" gets thrown around a lot—but to the extent that financing a median home is unusually expensive today—compared to the median income—I think it's pretty fair to say we are in a housing crisis now. I do not think we were in a crisis in, say, 2019. Perhaps the cyclical nature of housing argues for a term other than "crisis", though (maybe, "affordability recession"?)...
RT @credistick: There are five ways that the large venture platforms are trampling small firms:
1) Pumping price-insensitive capital into…
Peter Ryan retweeted
I have a new piece out in @newrepublic this morning! About why tech titans proselytized for the effective altruist gospel. It has less to do with optimizing their ethics and more to do with validating their view of themselves as cosmic heroes
Hope it's interesting! (link 👇)
Peter Ryan retweeted
Do the economics of AI emulate the economics of traditional tech startups?
@davidzmorris explains: "AI, at least right now, is not a zero marginal cost product...Are you going to be able to pay off that, again, $518 billion in Anthropic commitments?"
PODCAST:
Beyond the headlines of SBF and FTX, a darker cultural force is quietly reshaping Silicon Valley and the current AI paradigm.
I'm joined by @davidzmorris to chat about his book "Stealing the Future: Sam Bankman-Fried, Elite Fraud, and the Cult of Techno-Utopia".
Peter Ryan retweeted
What connects Sam Bankman-Fried with Anthropic and OpenAI?
@davidzmorris explains that they share a culture of masking cultish appeals to authority (and money) for unfalsifiable claims with the veneer of math that encourages others to doubt their own intuitions.
PODCAST:
Beyond the headlines of SBF and FTX, a darker cultural force is quietly reshaping Silicon Valley and the current AI paradigm.
I'm joined by @davidzmorris to chat about his book "Stealing the Future: Sam Bankman-Fried, Elite Fraud, and the Cult of Techno-Utopia".
Peter Ryan retweeted
My favorite quote from @davidzmorris' book that unveils the reality and threat of this new "ism" from Silicon Valley.
"But EA and techno-utopianism steal the future from democracy, both politically and economically, and claim it for a fraudulent, performative elitism."
PODCAST:
Beyond the headlines of SBF and FTX, a darker cultural force is quietly reshaping Silicon Valley and the current AI paradigm.
I'm joined by @davidzmorris to chat about his book "Stealing the Future: Sam Bankman-Fried, Elite Fraud, and the Cult of Techno-Utopia".
Peter Ryan retweeted
PODCAST:
Beyond the headlines of SBF and FTX, a darker cultural force is quietly reshaping Silicon Valley and the current AI paradigm.
I'm joined by @davidzmorris to chat about his book "Stealing the Future: Sam Bankman-Fried, Elite Fraud, and the Cult of Techno-Utopia".
PODCAST:
Stealing the Future - David Z. Morris - Ryan Research Podcast Ep. 30
ryanresearch.substack.com/p/…
Peter Ryan retweeted
What does 20th century French philosopher Jean Baudrillard have to do with FTX’s Sam Bankman-Fried, crypto, AI, and Silicon Valley?
@davidzmorris explains:
PODCAST:
Beyond the headlines of SBF and FTX, a darker cultural force is quietly reshaping Silicon Valley and the current AI paradigm.
I'm joined by @davidzmorris to chat about his book "Stealing the Future: Sam Bankman-Fried, Elite Fraud, and the Cult of Techno-Utopia".
Peter Ryan retweeted
Today @ZKZeroKnowledge we report on the research funding practices that fed current panic about "AI Doom."
We found consistent defunding of dissent, even from within the "extinction risk" field.
"AI Safety" is not a research program. It's propaganda.
🧵
zero-knowledge.com/blog/ai-s…
Peter Ryan retweeted
Where does housing in NYC get built? Where there is vacant or underused space, and where rents are sufficiently high to make it profitable.
Peter Ryan retweeted
From @hamiltonnolan—"Every government will, in time, be faced with the question of what to do when the power of rich individuals begins to rival the power of the state itself." Sounds incendiary, but read carefully, it's hard to disagree. My chart...
Peter Ryan retweeted
This was a really interesting discussion about surging bond yields
On this episode of the Odd Lots podcast, @CarolinPflueger joins @tracyalloway and @TheStalwart to discuss why Treasury and global bond yields have been surging and what central banks have to do to make bonds more “bond-like” again. Listen at bit.ly/3PsKJKY or watch at Bloomberg.com/video
Peter Ryan retweeted
A very fun interview, check it out.
My favorite quote from @davidzmorris' book that unveils the reality and threat of this new "ism" from Silicon Valley.
"But EA and techno-utopianism steal the future from democracy, both politically and economically, and claim it for a fraudulent, performative elitism."
Peter Ryan retweeted
My response to @Walmart:
Public claims deserve a public response. Especially when they’re inaccurate and misleading.
@owenslindsay1 has repeatedly suggested Walmart uses or plans to use technology to charge people more based on their personal information.
