Bitcoin, $MSTR, Chemical Engineer. Seeker of sun, beaches, & tropical locations.
MSTR
Joined March 2021
- Tweets5.3K
- Following703
- Followers1.9K
- Likes13.9K
10 Year $MSTR Price Model, NFA, hypothetical model only, DYOR:
Key Assumptions & Drivers:
1. The $BTC power law model is valid and continues for the next 10 year years with a base case of the PL trend, bear case of the 5% floor, and bull case +1 St. Dev above the PL model price.
2. NET mNAV is: 1.0x for bear case, 1.3x base case, 1.6x bull case
3. Amplification reaches between 50-60% as management has previously guided as a long term target. The model assumes it takes 5 years to reach this range.
4. BTC/share increases at 10% per year, also in accordance with management’s stated goals of doubling BTC/share in about 7 years.
Outputs shared below. I will be publishing an in depth, full research model soon.
Strategy Dude retweeted
Chamath is right. Bitcoin will get hacked by AI agents.
That’s why I keep a large hoard of cash in my Chase bank account. There’s no way an AI will be able to hack that.
The @Giovann35084111 Power Law model for $BTC is currently around $156,974 per coin…Bitcoin is currently ~48% off. It won’t last forever and neither will $MSTR around $150/share.
bitcoin:native power-law research has a bigger stage.
Santostasi & Perrenod’s Oct. 15 paper fits BTC’s 2010–26 price to time^5.69 (R²=0.961). The Scientific Bitcoin Institute scheduled its launch for Oct. 20.
Bitcoin’s autopoietic nature and power law trajectory will provide a long term path for $STRC to deliver reliable yield and rocket fuel for $MSTR to become a multi-trillion market cap company.
Strategy Dude retweeted
$BTC AT $82K: STATISTICAL MODEL SHOWS $131K MEDIAN SCENARIO BY YEAR-END 2026
I analyzed 5,937 daily Bitcoin closes using a mathematical trend-and-cycle model.
Current modeled levels:
Q25: $92K (+12%)
Q50: $108K (+32%)
Q75: $133K (+62%)
Year-end 2026 scenarios (approx.):
Q25: $105K (+28%)
Q50: $131K (+60%)
Q75: $168K (+105%)
Bitcoin is trading below its lowest historical model quartile.
The bullish case: A return toward the modeled median offers substantial upside without requiring a new all-time high today.
Strategy Dude retweeted
Overlay Bitcoin's 2022 bottom with the June 2026 bottom and they're basically TWINNING 👯
- - -
We're sitting right about where Bitcoin was in late February 2023. That spot led to one last shakeout and then a real breakout.
It's only a rhyme, but it's a hard one to ignore, people 🤷♂️
Strategy Dude retweeted
I support buybacks too.
However, given STRC is still not at par, against expectations, I suggest we temporarily discontinue promotion of Strive.
Continuing promotion while STRC is not at par is tantamount to prioritising Strive ahead of restoration of STRC to par.
I am still bullish on @Strategy, $MSTR, but it’s also prudent to admit that the dilutive resistant $BTC acquisition engine of issuing preferred stocks to acquire bitcoin has been stalled for the better part of this year. I will share some math soon which presents a rather strong upside still for $MSTR. Unfortunately, managements actions to return $STRC to par have been helpful but not enough to kick start the engine again.
Another $193.1M of $STRC was repurchased last week. Less preferred outstanding can help $MSTR’s residual value, but $447M in flexible cash means discipline matters. Most importantly, the board approved increasing its Digital Credit Securities Repurchase Program authorization from $2 billion to $3 billion, with $1.16 billion remaining available.
Strategy Dude retweeted
Make sure to get into MSTR, before:
-> Investmentgrade Credit rating
-> Institutions buy STRC in a big way
-> Strategy is in the Top 10 Companies
Might happen faster than you think!
