robinhood:0x2cc0fac44b8252f6b10208b091aff2c94b4da77d is showing a sneak peek of their new Sinjoh 2.0 feature.. a self-sustaining flywheel.
10% of ongoing fees directly deepening liquidity is a first and a step forward in disincentivizing pair-hopping alongside rewarding loyalty.
Look at why this matters:
Higher liquidity -> less slippage -> larger volume -> more fees flowing back into the liquidity pool.
Get your funds ready for the launchpad release, @DSB_117 said they're working with project soon to launch on this new 2.0 infra
The new $INJOH 2.0 pool is deployed 💫
New pool ID: 0x6f147d67440afa03d056ccfcf99139da9dfac537269a523cd1b3cd371ebde1f1
$20k has been used to seed the new pool & 10% of fees will continue to deepen liquidity.
The full Launchpad release is just moments away - please standby!
Con retweeted
Best subs in the game right now are:
@Brownmoose
@TW_trades_
@__Con_
@DeadSeaTrader
Everyone else is fluff tbh.
This might shock some of you.
But I'm closing my trades on AI beneficiaries.
On the short term, I think the what AI powers -> towards what powers AI trade, is about to take place.
AI beneficiaries have ran a ton so far, and that has been great, but they are all hitting resistance now.
While AI enablers are hitting support.
$TEAM, $NOW, $PLTR, $ZETA, $RDDT, $ABNB, etc., I'm selling on the short term trade account.
I'm still holding all my long term positions in them, but on the short term, I do expect a pullback.
And I expect $ASYS, $OPTX, $BRUN, $AAOI, $SIVE, etc., to all do very well from here on out.
Do with this what you want.
I love how everyone has started talking about $UBER now.
Yet, they're overlooking $UBER's smaller competitor that's on a come up.
Here it is:
Since 2023, both $LYFT's and $UBER's financials have increased for the better ($LYFT has actually increased more y/y percentage wise).
Yet, when we look at the return's y/y for both stocks, it looks like this.
$LYFT: 0%
$UBER: 240%
It's a wild, wild difference.
Fundamentally, $LYFT's gross profit, net income, and total revenue all increasing for the better.
Same thing with $UBER, too. Yet, $LYFT has hit an inflection point too.
The technicals for both of these companies look fantastic, but the asymmetry is crazy for $LYFT.
Just wait till $LYFT outperforms $UBER.
$UBER is a great investment and will do well.
But this is the year for $LYFT. $30 is a nice target.
Bookmark this and come back when I'm right.
I think $UBER looks compelling here.
At ~$76, I think fair value is closer to $120.
The numbers are pretty compelling:
- Uber generated ~$9.8B of FCF in 2025, up 42% YoY
- Consensus has FCF reaching ~$11B in 2026 and ~$13B in 2027
- Uber now has 200M+ monthly users and processes 40M+ trips per day
- Uber trades around 12x projected 2027 FCF despite FCF still expected to grow ~18% that year
The obvious reason for the discount is autonomous vehicles. The market is worried Waymo/Tesla eventually disintermediate Uber.
I think the opposite outcome could be underpriced: Uber becomes the demand, distribution and payments layer connecting hundreds of millions of consumers with AV fleets. I am not fully sold on this thesis…but what if that’s how it plays out? Would Uber not be the most obvious name trading at an irrationally priced discount?
Uber has 200M+ monthly users and enormous existing demand. An AV manufacturer has to build the cars, operate the fleet, maintain them, reposition them, and then somehow acquire millions of riders.
That’s why I find the valuation interesting here.
You aren’t paying 30x FCF and hoping Uber wins AV…you’re paying roughly 12x 2027 FCF for the existing business and getting the possibility that Uber becomes a major AV distribution layer.
If AVs destroy Uber’s moat, the discount makes sense, the question is if that will actually happen.
Using roughly $13B of 2027 FCF:
Bear case: 17x FCF → $108
Base case: 19x FCF → $120/share
Bull case: 22x FCF → $140/share
No position yet but the risk/reward is compelling.
I have a lot of "weird" views.
Not most people hold my takes, but I do have a rational behind why I believe certain ideas.
Let me go over the thought process for my most controversial takes this year:
1) Crypto returns will outperform AI returns from here on out.
This one is interesting.
Crypto has been down only this whole year, but AI returns have been up only.
Why do I think this will (somewhat) change?
Because Crypto has survived every single possible FUD possible, yet is still consolidating above its previous cycle all time high.
Think about that.
Even recently, a report just came out that "Michael Saylor's Strategy authorizes plans to sell up to $5 billion in Bitcoin."
Which is some straight FUD, because they are doing it for reasons previously listed.
And $BTC doesn't even move.
Don't forget we also had quantum and AI risks, which were FUD, but now we survived.
And also just overall technical analysis wise, we've seem to have bottomed.
So, as a byproduct, emerging tech from $COIN and $HOOD, to beta plays such as $MSTR will, in my opinion, go up A LOT.
I do think AI returns will be great this year though.
But I am a bit more skeptical as things have already gone up 1000s of percents in such a short time frame.
So, I wouldn't be surprised if there were more sideways chop action before we actually go higher.
2) EV companies will make a comeback soon (such as
$RIVN, $NIO, etc.)
I really think every investor is turning a blind eye towards these stocks.
They lost so much $ during the hype cycle, that now, even though they're progressing like crazy, they still have them on their "blocked list."
But, they're definitely an undervalued industry here.
$NIO has done great things.
They flipped towards profitability (they finally are profitable, think about that), they are innovating and making new, great cars, and expanding all of China.
Yet the stock price is down since this news.
A clear stock that will be repriced higher.
This is a no-brainer play imo.
The company has been producing (making a new car model), has been innovating (making each car cheaper), and overall growing in AI + Robotics.
The earnings reports for these companies look like this:
Total Revenue -> increasing
Net income -> increasing
Gross profit -> increasing
Which is exactly what we want to be seeing.
Now, they are also set up in the perfect intersection of AI + Robotics.
It is #1 easy for them to go into AI and Robotics given their industry, and #1 benefit off of AI and Robotics getting better.
This is a nobrainer play, in my opinion.
3) Space stocks won't run HARD until both Robotics and AI stocks have ran. But I think humanoid robotics (such as $TSLA, won't run hard compared to
$AMBA, $VPG, $OUST).
This one is interesting.
I do like Space stocks, but most of it is, of course, based on future returns.
We do have some attractive prices for $RKLB and $ASTS right now, so I might have to change this take and say "over the long term, they won't run hard."
But, I could see them having another hype cycle here, if I'm being honest.
For humanoid robots, this is straight hype.
First, our human body has adopted to fit what we could physically adopt to.
Now, this doesn't necessarily mean our body is "best fit" to do a certain task.
This is why we have certain, specific tasks that will be easily done by a few robotic tools (such as a cooking device that will be able to cook what you want, cleaning, etc.).
But I will say: it does look insanely cool (which is why the hype is big on this right now).
Secondly, the scale, like Kawz said, is much lower.
So, while most people are chasing humanoids, I dislike the humanoid notion (such as $TSLA
and $TER, although they probably will go up imo).
And I'm buying three types of robotics companies:
1. The suppliers to the humanoid companies.
2. The cleaning/cooking/manufacturing robots, or everyday robotics companies that'll be extremely beneficial (but not necessarily in a human shape).
3. The companies that will be helping the robots train optimally
4) AI enablers (such as $MU, $SIVE, and $AAOI) will have one last pump after this consolidation, before going into a bear trend. And before the pump, we will slowly consolidate here, not have a V shaped recovery. The bottom is less than 15% away from these names. So, that means I think over 90% of the downward move is already in. We should go higher soon (such as for $NBIS and those).
I think right now, we are consolidating for most of these AI stocks.
After going from distribution (we're in the end of this) -> accumulation again, we will need some time of consolidation here.
But once this happens, I think we'll have one more hype wave up before going into a downtrend, and then back again, going into a real "value driven" growth.
5) AI beneficiaries (such as $ZETA, $TEAM, $NOW) and AI distributors (such $AAPL, $GOOGL, $META) will both continue to increase in value even after the AI enabler sell off.
The AI enablers run up (for right now), is based on future growth.
This, is like every company.
But, recently, we've gone to pretty crazy valuations at current revenue.
All while FUD around AI beneficiaries and AI distributors is being spread.
So, once the hype falls from AI enablers, I do think the money will rotate into valuable companies that investors once undervalued, such as AI beneficiaries and AI distributors.
*AI beneficiaries are companies that benefit off of the AI buildout. They usually can make their product better and cheaper. Think SaaS companies, and such, or $ZETA, $TEAM, $NOW.
*AI distributors are companies that will distribute open-source AI models to people in the most efficient manner. Think $AAPL, $GOOGL, $META.
6) Once AI enablers go up in value, people will rotate over to the privacy thesis in crypto (basically $ZEC coded).
People have, recently, seen the government intervention happening, everywhere.
I think most people don't like this.
We like freedom.
And with surveillance, comes more crackdown, and less freedom.
Which, I think, will lead to a revolt, and rotation into privacy coins such as $ZEC.
7) For overall company performance, I think $COIN
will outperform $HOOD. But I think both will go up minimum 100%.
The reason why I'm betting on $COIN> $HOOD is because of human psychology.
People don't understand that all companies act based on human psychology.
It is a cyclical cycle:
They are the underdog -> they put in tons of work -> start to dominate -> make a "monopoly" and get cocky -> fall behind -> start losing -> (yet sometimes) get themselves back up and start winning again.
I think $COIN, with its desire to become "great" again, will do just that.
$HOOD is innovating (and has been previously), but it has both the growth priced in and is in the "make a monopoly stage."
While COIN has been in the fall behind -> start losing stage right now.
So, it is now going to try to do everything to get back in the game.
All while the growth isn't priced in, yet.
And that is what's making this an appealing opportunity to me.
When both will probably go up (due to BTC going up, and crypto adoption).
8) I think it's obvious people are hating on serenity and $SIVE, yet I think @aleabitoreddit will post another "Did you listen anon" post when $SIVE breaks above all time high levels.
SIVE has gone down 75% from all time high levels, but the company is exactly the same.
And people are spreading such FUD such as "insiders are selling," but they aren't looking at the positives.
Human psychology is funny to me.
People were crying for a pullback when $SIVE was at 100, but now that it is at 30, they are saying it'll go lower.
Only time will tell, but I think in that last pump, we'll break above all time high levels again.
9) $ASYS will be the next AI enabler to pull a $SIVE type of run up (as it is very undervalued).
It passes the exact framework I use (props to @mkfilko for making it):
0) Enabler: Does this company build the foundation of the AI buildout?
1) Leadership: Is the founder experienced within this niche?
2) Revenue Quality: Is it recurring revenue, or a onetime sum.
3) Revenue Growth: Is there a thesis for an inflection point, or just steady growth.
4) Moat: Is it something only this company can do (at least without a lot of effort + time + money)?
5) Asymmetry: What's the worst-case scenario vs the possible reward?
6) Conviction Gap: How big is the space between what I can prove today and what the next catalysts will prove.
Explained below.
They are an enabler: Reflow ovens, diffusion furnaces, and polishing systems go into AI chip packaging/advanced substrates. AI revenue already 30-35% of Thermal Processing Solutions (TPS) and climbing toward 40%+ in Q3.
Leadership: CEO Bob Daigle (Chairman/CEO) has deep semi-equipment experience. Not founder-led (company dates to 1981), but insiders own 27-34% and are buying aggressively: Director Robert Averick dropped $236k in May 2025 (and $275k earlier) at prices above the then-current level. No selling. New CFO just onboarded cleanly too.
Revenue Quality: Mix of capital equipment + >20% recurring parts/services. Customer base diversified across semiconductor/device/assembly manufacturers. Geo mix includes US + Asia/Europe (some China exposure but not dominant). Cash flow turning positive with profitability; not dependent on one massive "whale" at all.
Revenue Growth: Clear AI-driven inflection. Q2 FY2026 revenue $20.5M (+31% YoY, +8% QoQ), bookings $21.1M, backlog 22.3M. AI expected to drive majority of growth; Q3 guidance 20.5-22.5M. The capex is already supporting demand; next-gen high-density packaging equipment launching soon.
Moat: Specialized thermal-processing equipment with long qualification cycles in semiconductors. Established brands (BTU International, Entrepix, PR Hoffman). Hyperscaler-driven AI packaging demand validates it indirectly.
Asymmetry: 320-330M market cap on 80M+ run-rate revenue that is growing 30%+ with AI tailwinds. Cash is around 24M. Forward earnings/revenues look cheap vs. AI peers too imo.
Conviction Gap: Gap = exact AI % trajectory and sustained margin leverage. Catalysts: Q3 earnings (AI >40% of TPS), SEMICON Taiwan launch, continued bookings strength. Evidence already leaning right (31% growth).
*data might be a bit off, as I wrote this earlier, but it's still crazily undervalued.
10) $LYFT is a better investment than $UBER here. But, both will go up 100%+ from here on out. LYFT
is at $15, UBER is at $68.
Since 2023, both LYFT and UBER financials have increased for the better (LYFT has actually increased more y/y percentage wise).
Yet, when we look at the returns y/y for both LYFT and UBER , it looks like this:
$LYFT: 0%
$UBER: 240%
Absolutely wild stuff here.
So you're telling me we got LYFT's gross profit, net income, and total revenue all increasing for the better, yet it still hasn't moved?
That's crazy to me.
All when the president of the United States is buying in here. Yeah, $LYFT > $UBER, but both will do well...
OK, there you go.
Like I said, bookmark this and come back to see how well I do.
I do believe most of my predictions (7/10) will turn out right.
There you go: my full thesis for each prediction.
What are your guys' thoughts?
Here are my most controversial takes for this year:
1) Crypto returns will outperform AI returns from here on out (comparing $MSTR to $MU, etc.).
2) EV companies will make a comeback soon (such as $RIVN, $NIO, etc.)
3) Space stocks won't run HARD until both Robotics and AI stocks have ran. But I think humanoid robotics (such as $TSLA, won't run hard compared to $AMBA, $VPG, $AMBA)
4) AI enablers (such as $MU, $SIVE, and $AAOI) will have one last pump after this consolidation, before going into a bear trend. And before the pump, we will slowly consolidate here, not have a V shaped recovery. The bottom is less than 15% away from these names. So, that means I think over 90% of the downward move is already in. We should go higher soon (such as for $NBIS and those).
5) AI beneficiaries (such as $ZETA, $TEAM, $NOW) and AI distributors (such $AAPL, $GOOGL, $META) will both continue to increase in value even after the AI enabler sell off.
6) Once AI enablers go up in value, people will rotate over to the privacy thesis in crypto ($ZEC coded).
7) For overall company performance, I think $COIN will outperform $HOOD from here on out, $COIN is at $167, and $HOOD is at $95. But I think both will go up minimum 100%.
8) I think it's obvious people are hating on serenity and $SIVE, yet I think @aleabitoreddit will post another "Did you listen anon" post when $SIVE breaks above all time high levels.
9) $ASYS will be the next AI enabler to pull a $SIVE type of run up (as it is very undervalued).
10) $LYFT is a better investment than $UBER here. But, both will go up 100%+ from here on out. $LYFT is at $15, $UBER is at $68.
Bookmark this and come back to see how well I do.
I also bet you at least 7/10 of these predictions will turn out right.
What are your guys' thoughts?
The market gave us this "once in a lifetime opportunity."
AI stocks dropped -50%+ in just a month, and prices shot up 40% since then. People are eager to call that the bottom is in here.
But we're not out of the woods. Not yet. Here's when I'll know we will go higher:
Once price makes a higher high or higher low, we're set.
We want to look, specifically on the higher time frame, not low time frame, for this, for a higher high, or high low.
Think the daytime frame but zoomed out.
After selling $NBIS at 280, and recently buying back in at the 140s, I'm getting sketched out here.
Everyone's calling bottoms.
Yes, Leopold basically got "forced" to sell the bottom, while Citadel bought in (after spreading FUD to get prices that low).
This along with good earnings from $MSFT and $AMZN, while people realize 99% of the "problems" these companies had, were actually benefits (explained in qt below), is a great bottom like structure.
But, bottoms rarely form when everyone is calling the bottom as in.
And right now, the structure is showing me some concerning signs.
A long with having lots of potential bearish catalysts (such as bad earnings, more war, etc.).
Which is why, we must wait for a higher high, or higher low to make sure overall buying pressure is greater than overall selling pressure (going forward).
This is what I'm seeing (particularly for $NBIS, but I'll do it for some other names too).
We had a solid 1-2-3-4-5 run up, and now are going to go into an A-B-C retracement.
This is on the higher time frame.
A clear invalidation of this, would be if price broke above the 240 level, and used it as support.
That would be a new higher high.
Within the higher time frame elliot wave theory, we also have a lower time frame elliot wave theory.
But this one shows a clear bottom formation, and that we want a new 1-2-3-4-5 signal higher.
So, it's a bit weird.
We could get an exit pump towards the high 230s area on $NBIS, and then have a sharp sell off.
Which is why, I'm holding my shares on $NBIS, but am going to sell at the high 230s area, and will buy back in again at the 240s area if we break above that resistance and use it as support.
A 5% loss for securing my risk.
I need that higher high or higher low to be put in before I can call for a true bullish stance.
This is the same thing with $MU
Unless it breaks above 920 with strength, expect to go down more.
You'd be surprised how far down we can go.
Same thing with $SIVE, wait for the higher high at 41 to be put in place.
But until then, this bottom ticking is still risky (even tho I bought lol).
So, no, this post is not to scare you and say "sell all your shares now," but it is to warn you once we go up more, to be careful.
I'm still full in my shares here.
But, I am saying to be careful once we go up a bit here. I might derisk a bit before making any crazy claims.
We are definitely not at capitulation.
Trust me, if you want capitulation look at crypto. Nobody here is there yet. People here are still using margin daily and acting like nothing is happening.
But, maybe, capitulation won't come now, and we'll have one more run up, where everything think we'll send to 1000s of dollars, and that'll be the top.
I really don't know.
But, the picture will become clearer the closer we get there...
I truly think the market has given us a "Gift from God."
Most AI stocks are down -50% from all time highs levels, with some at even -75%, yet people aren't buying.
Let me first explain why we sold off, and then why this is a generational wealth buying opportunity:
1) Hyperscalers (such as $MSFT, $GOOGL, $AMZN , $META, etc.) are on track to spend roughly $700-$850+ billion this year on AI data centers, chips, and infrastructure.
Yet investors are increasingly frustrated that this spending isn’t yet translating into proportional revenue or profit growth at the expected pace.
Analysts describe it as an “air pocket:" the buildout is happening of course, but the $ gains, the monetization (especially for some of the biggest spenders) remains early stage or unclear.
Earnings reactions have amplified this: Alphabet raising capex guidance (to as high as ~$205B in some reports) and Tesla flagging a “massive capex year” triggered sharp selloffs.
But, I think soon, we'll realize the massive capex was for a good reason.
2) As demand has grown for high bandwidth memory and related components, this has driven shortages and price spikes.
I know this sounds bullish, but most investors didn't think so lol.
Although this benefits pure memory/storage names (such as $MU and peers), this raises the cost base for everyone else: think hyperscale's, device makers (ex: $AAPL raised some product prices citing component costs), and the broader supply chain.
Higher costs feed directly into margin worries and questions about how sustainable the spending pace is.
Although as it helps companies such as $MU, and AI enablers in totality, they have taken a hit.
3) AI related names (especially semiconductors and the Mag 7) had massive gains over the prior year.
Crowded trades + high multiples make the group vulnerable to any disappointment or shift in narrative.
So, recently, we’ve seen profit taking, rotation into less loved areas, and periods where chip stocks (SOXX, memory names) led sharp weekly declines even as some software/enterprise AI names held up or rebounded.
Basically the rotation from stocks that enable AI to the stocks AI enables.
I've talked about this before and was one of the reasons I rotated some of my AI enabler holdings towards AI beneficiaries (ex: $MU, $AAOI, $NBIS towards $ZETA, $TEAM, $NOW).
4) Secondary catalysts and macro noise
First, we have geopolitical/macro risks (including Iran related oil pressure and rate/Fed path concerns) adds to the risk off sentiment. Which doesn't help the AI trade.
But most of this is priced in imo.
Second, the competition fears (efficient Chinese models potentially reducing compute intensity, or advances in Chinese equipment).
But, most of it is FUD (as they haven't done much), but for the open source models, that only helps the AI trade.
And third, broader bubble talk from central bank forums (BIS) and analysts comparing the scale/speed of AI capex to historical manias, while noting real demand exists.
People have been saying the AI bubble is like the Internet bubble.
But I've already wrote why that is wrong. You can look up "Internet bubble" and the post will come up on my profile.
So most of these are either priced in, or straight FUD.
That brings us to the main point in which I believe we actually sold off.
5) It's really all human psychology.
We were getting to the stage where people didn't even know what they were buying into.
Yet it didn't matter.
If you bought a stock that had some AI jargon, or some cool things in it (such as "Photonics," which is very important, but 99% of people don't know what it actually is lol).
So, I think a sell off was due after getting up to 1000% returns in a few months (check $SIVE).
But, these companies do actually have a great thesis.
They are the shovels to the gold rush.
So, as we've examined, most of this is FUD.
I'll be the first to admit I didn't think we'd fall down this far, but now, I 95% of the downturn has already occurred.
My price targets for some good names are here:
$SIVE: 25
$INTC: 75
$NBIS: 140
$ASYS: 12
$AAOI: 75
$QCOM: 152
I'll be posting entries/exits on names I think have bottomed early or have topped out early as well.
But for now, we simply buy more and wait it out.
I warned you to sell $SIVE at $73.
Now, it's down -63% since my callout.
But this time, I'm warning you to buy $SIVE at $23. Let's see if I'm right again...
$SIVE has made a lower low for this first time.
Here's what that means:
Investor optimism is slowing down.
At least, in the short term.
I know this isn't what people want to hear, but it's true.
We just went up over 1000% in a few months, so this was due imo.
Now, this is what I'm doing here:
It's at $58 dollars right now but I'm waiting for an exit pump to get out. $73 seems like a good price for that.
After then, I'm out, and out for a bit, as this signals we will probably go lower from here on out.
I'm not going to start bear posting and saying everything will send lower here, but this is not a great look for $SIVE anymore.
I still think there's a bullish case for it here, but the recent price action is not a good sign (at least for the short-medium term).
Just my 2c on how I'm playing this, and what I think will happen next.
I'm curious though, what are you guys doing here?
I truly think the market has given us a "Gift from God."
Most AI stocks are down -50% from all time highs levels, with some at even -75%, yet people aren't buying.
Let me first explain why we sold off, and then why this is a generational wealth buying opportunity:
1) Hyperscalers (such as $MSFT, $GOOGL, $AMZN , $META, etc.) are on track to spend roughly $700-$850+ billion this year on AI data centers, chips, and infrastructure.
Yet investors are increasingly frustrated that this spending isn’t yet translating into proportional revenue or profit growth at the expected pace.
Analysts describe it as an “air pocket:" the buildout is happening of course, but the $ gains, the monetization (especially for some of the biggest spenders) remains early stage or unclear.
Earnings reactions have amplified this: Alphabet raising capex guidance (to as high as ~$205B in some reports) and Tesla flagging a “massive capex year” triggered sharp selloffs.
But, I think soon, we'll realize the massive capex was for a good reason.
2) As demand has grown for high bandwidth memory and related components, this has driven shortages and price spikes.
I know this sounds bullish, but most investors didn't think so lol.
Although this benefits pure memory/storage names (such as $MU and peers), this raises the cost base for everyone else: think hyperscale's, device makers (ex: $AAPL raised some product prices citing component costs), and the broader supply chain.
Higher costs feed directly into margin worries and questions about how sustainable the spending pace is.
Although as it helps companies such as $MU, and AI enablers in totality, they have taken a hit.
3) AI related names (especially semiconductors and the Mag 7) had massive gains over the prior year.
Crowded trades + high multiples make the group vulnerable to any disappointment or shift in narrative.
So, recently, we’ve seen profit taking, rotation into less loved areas, and periods where chip stocks (SOXX, memory names) led sharp weekly declines even as some software/enterprise AI names held up or rebounded.
Basically the rotation from stocks that enable AI to the stocks AI enables.
I've talked about this before and was one of the reasons I rotated some of my AI enabler holdings towards AI beneficiaries (ex: $MU, $AAOI, $NBIS towards $ZETA, $TEAM, $NOW).
4) Secondary catalysts and macro noise
First, we have geopolitical/macro risks (including Iran related oil pressure and rate/Fed path concerns) adds to the risk off sentiment. Which doesn't help the AI trade.
But most of this is priced in imo.
Second, the competition fears (efficient Chinese models potentially reducing compute intensity, or advances in Chinese equipment).
But, most of it is FUD (as they haven't done much), but for the open source models, that only helps the AI trade.
And third, broader bubble talk from central bank forums (BIS) and analysts comparing the scale/speed of AI capex to historical manias, while noting real demand exists.
People have been saying the AI bubble is like the Internet bubble.
But I've already wrote why that is wrong. You can look up "Internet bubble" and the post will come up on my profile.
So most of these are either priced in, or straight FUD.
That brings us to the main point in which I believe we actually sold off.
5) It's really all human psychology.
We were getting to the stage where people didn't even know what they were buying into.
Yet it didn't matter.
If you bought a stock that had some AI jargon, or some cool things in it (such as "Photonics," which is very important, but 99% of people don't know what it actually is lol).
So, I think a sell off was due after getting up to 1000% returns in a few months (check $SIVE).
But, these companies do actually have a great thesis.
They are the shovels to the gold rush.
So, as we've examined, most of this is FUD.
I'll be the first to admit I didn't think we'd fall down this far, but now, I 95% of the downturn has already occurred.
My price targets for some good names are here:
$SIVE: 25
$INTC: 75
$NBIS: 140
$ASYS: 12
$AAOI: 75
$QCOM: 152
I'll be posting entries/exits on names I think have bottomed early or have topped out early as well.
But for now, we simply buy more and wait it out.
I wouldn't be surprised if crypto got a big pump coming.
$BTC is starting to look great here.
$SOL, $ZEC, $COIN, $HYPE, and $HOOD also are looking amazing.
We survived the worst FUD (quantum, AI, Saylor selling), which wasn't even true, yet we're still hovering over the previous all time high levels.
Among being in a war.
So how much worse can it get? I don't think much worse.
All while nobody is talking about crypto.
So yes, as everyone is calling for $AAOI, $SIVE, $MU, $SNDK to go higher (I do think they will), don't miss out on crypto.
I do think putting a portion of your portfolio into some form of crypto is worth it here.
Don't mistake its past underperformance as future underperformance.
I can't sometimes...
$NBIS, $SIVE, and $AAOI were down 40% on the month, and everyone says to sell.
Then, it goes up 20% yesterday and everyone was screaming to buy in.
Now, they're down 5% and everyone is bearish again.
This is a clear representation of human psychology at play here.
And we can take a great lesson from this:
So many people fall into the same trap.
To buy when it's up and looking good, and to sell when it's down and looking bad.
But, if you want to be a good trader, you must do the opposite.
*when coupled with a fundamental, in check, thesis.
This is exactly why I'm buying some "terrible looking" charts.
I mean, the whole AI enabler sector looks bad here. Or bad in the sense of it being down 50% this month.
Such as $MU, $QCOM, $INTC, etc., yet, I'm buying in here again.
Although, a short term dip is possible here.
Robotics as well.
It had a strong push on all the stocks, then it dropped hard later.
Nobody wants to buy now.
But when it was at all time high levels, everyone was screaming "I can't wait for a dip."
So we got some good buys on $VPG, $OUST, $AMBA, etc.
EVs as well.
$NIO, $RIVN, $LYFT, they all are doing great things now.
But they look terrible and everyone has forgotten about them.
And lastly crypto too.
This niche has underperformed the most this year.
$BTC (Bitcoin) is down 50% from all time high levels, after the stock market has been up only.
Yet, it has a great narrative here. And the niche is becoming better and better.
So I'm buying $COIN, $ZEC, $HOOD, etc..
So we must change our thinking from something being down hard and hitting support looking great.
While something up high hitting resistance looks bad.
Change the mindset, be the few.
That's how you make unorthodox returns...
Will you look at that timing.
I sold the $NBIS top at $290, then bought the bottom back at $170.
Sooner than later we'll be sending to all time high levels again.
Don't fade this call...
After selling the top on $NBIS, I'm officially buying in again.
My next post will go over why I'm making this change.
This is the "Investing Bible."
It goes over how I actively manage my portfolio, when I know the right time to buy/sell, and which stocks are worth buying, and why.
It ranges from me selling the top on $NBIS, to my rational on buying the $MU, $SIVE, and $AAOI dip.
As well as my rational in it all.
I both, teach you how to fish, and give you fish.
It is, what I think, my best post to date.
Give it a read, and let me know your thoughts.
People are relating the AI bubble to the internet bubble.
But they were 2 different events, under totally different circumstances.
Here's why I think the "AI bubble" isn't actually a bubble:
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1) Profitability and who is actually spending the money
In 1999-2000, much of the frenzy was venture backed startups with $0 revenue, burning cash on ads and "eyeballs," or so someone can find their product.
But today, that is totally different.
The heavy lifting is done by hyperscalers: $MSFT (Microsoft), $AMZN (Amazon) $GOOGL (Alphabet) $META, and $ORCL Oracle).
These companies have massive balance sheets, strong cash flows, and are already profitable in their core businesses.
Their combined AI-related capex guidance for 2026 is in the $600-750B+ range (some estimates higher), with 75% of it being AI-focused.
This isn't the VC speculation of the past.
Now, we got trillion dollar companies funding data centers, GPUs, power, and networking because they see direct revenue (Azure/OpenAI, Google Cloud AI, AWS AI services), and cost-saving/productivity upside.
$NVDA itself has data center revenue exploding with very high gross margins (75%). This is different from Pets(.com) or the average internet bubble stock with an infinite P/E and no product market fit.
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2) Monetization is faster and more direct
The internet took time to build broadband, e-commerce infrastructure, and user habits.
All of these things were foreign, and nothing of its kind was here before us.
But now, AI tools (coding assistants, enterprise search/RAG, analytics, content generation, automation) are being integrated into workflows, with measurable revenue already appearing in cloud segments.
I hate when people say it's just all a "future promise." But it's not.
You can tell just by looking at the companies who benefit off of this AI buildout: the AI beneficiaries.
These are companies such as $ZETA, $SOFI, $TEAM, etc., who benefit off of AI and which their earnings look like this:
Gross profit -> Increasing
Net income -> Increasing
Due to how AI benefits their business.
So, the buildout is happening because companies are seeing (and strongly expect) ROI in the form of higher cloud revenues and internal efficiencies.
This doesn't mean every projection will be met on time ofc, but it's a stronger foundation than pure narrative like the past.
We've already seen progress.
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3. Infrastructure nature and bottlenecks
The Dot-com buildout included a lot of fiber overbuild (dark fiber glut).
AI requires physical, power hungry, supply constrained assets (advanced GPUs, data centers, electricity, cooling, networking like co-packaged optics).
Which are used for lots of things (not just for the AI buildout alone by the way).
This creates real pricing power for leaders ( such as $NVDA, $TSM, select enablers) and sustained spending pressure.
Hyperscale's are in this race because falling behind on AI capabilities has competitive costs.
The capex intensity is high (some ratios cited around 20-30%+ of revenue for these firms), and there is legitimate debate about whether current AI cloud revenue ($50-60B range in recent periods) justifies the spend in the near term.
But the scale is backed by actual earnings power, unlike much of the late 1990s.
----------------------------------------------------------
4. Valuations context (not identical to 2000)
Nasdaq-100 forward P/E hit extremes (~60x) in 2000.
Right now, the current S&P 500 forward multiples are elevated (23x, the most stretched since then), and names like $NVDA trade at high multiples, but nothing close to those in the past.
----------------------------------------------------------
5. Winners and losers dynamic
Post-dot-com, the survivors (Amazon, Microsoft, Google, Apple) became dominant for 20+ years.
Many others went to zero.
The same will likely happen in AI: the real infrastructure compounders with moats and execution will consolidate power and deliver long-term returns.
The smaller, lesser known names and pure narrative plays are the ones most at risk of 70%+ drawdowns.
So saying all AI stocks will go down is obviously a stretch. Although, like we see everywhere, eventually the money will consolidate into the winners.
----------------------------------------------------------
So yes, he is right in some respects, such as demand != stock price.
This is evident.
Stocks aren't priced on whether companies will grow, necessarily, it's also priced on how much growth is already expected.
If investors already expect perfection, then any bit of inconvenience, and we see stocks slide lower.
This is what most people think about $AAOI here.
But there are definitely those that are still relatively undervalued, especially compared to the companies from the internet bubble.
Now, I'm not fully bullish just yet. I do think a short term downturn is due here.
Of course, after a 2000%+ gain in a few months.
But, I don't think we're over for good.
My next post will be about the best companies to buy, and the price targets you should get in at.
Until next time...
I keep seeing the same argument: "AI stocks can't go down, the demand is too great"
"The AI buildout is just beginning"
No shit.
Even @ChairmansLedger is guilty of this, which is surprising given his supposed background.
But let's not confuse demand with stock price.
Nobody making this argument has looked at what actually happened the last time we built out world-changing infrastructure.
Internet demand never fell. Users went from ~400M to ~590M through the crash, e-commerce grew 20%+ in 2001 while the Nasdaq dropped, and traffic doubled every year of the bust.
Even though the demand was there, the index still fell 78%, because ~$1 trillion of capital was priced for traffic doubling every 100 days when reality was every 12 months.
Which brings us to today, where garbage like $SIVE goes 60x in nineteen months, gets priced a decade out on perfect execution, breaks 70% in five weeks, and still people are "buying the dip" like they've been conditioned to for the last 18 years.
The demand for AI is real, obviously.
So was the demand for the internet.
Wake up.
I gave you the exact sell signal on $SIVE.
$SIVE was at $58, I said to sell on the exit pump to $73, it pumped to $73, and now it's down to $49.
I wouldn't be buying in here now. But soon will be a great buying opportunity. Let me tell you why:
OK, first thing here, we are in a distribution formation.
That means we are in a sell off.
The non-TA people are going to hate me for this but let me try to explain why it works.
Distribution formations usually have higher highs (HH) followed by higher lows (HL), which then breaks into a lower low (LL).
Why do higher lows and lower lows work?
Well, based on human psychology.
If people aren't willing to pay the same price for a given asset (and they are only willing to pay a lower price), this shows pessimism in the overall stock.
So it's a sign we will send lower (until we get into an accumulation phase again).
When will this happen?
My honest response is I don't know.
There are two areas I am looking at though:
1) The $44 zone (it's a fib level and horizontal support line).
2) The $28 zone (it also is a fib level and horizontal support line).
Once we hit these zones, I will look from there.
Because then, we will potentially start accumulating (I'm going to link the post below), and make higher highs again.
If we see a break in this structure, I will probably buy in again.
As this is a great company (everybody who has read any $SIVE thesis from @aleabitoreddit knows this), I'd be more than glad to get in again at a lower price.
I hope this helps you guys out with what my game strategy is, and why I'm not buying right now.
I also hope serenity and the $SIVE bulls can understand where I'm coming from.
We're all here to make $ at the end of the day (I just use TA to help).
Few...
$SIVE has made a lower low for this first time.
Here's what that means:
Investor optimism is slowing down.
At least, in the short term.
I know this isn't what people want to hear, but it's true.
We just went up over 1000% in a few months, so this was due imo.
Now, this is what I'm doing here:
It's at $58 dollars right now but I'm waiting for an exit pump to get out. $73 seems like a good price for that.
After then, I'm out, and out for a bit, as this signals we will probably go lower from here on out.
I'm not going to start bear posting and saying everything will send lower here, but this is not a great look for $SIVE anymore.
I still think there's a bullish case for it here, but the recent price action is not a good sign (at least for the short-medium term).
Just my 2c on how I'm playing this, and what I think will happen next.
I'm curious though, what are you guys doing here?





































