TMF, the events of the last year has caused much reflection. What was once a cyclical industry I have invested and studied for decades, may very well be a consumer staple industry moving forward. #energy connects and enables virtually everything on the planet. Treasure its supply
TMF, be careful what you believe. Understand your thesis, buy on red, and buy with confidence. Thank you. #OOTT #EFT #COM
BREAKING: Kpler's verified data directly contradicts Axios' report that 40 tankers carrying 16 million barrels exited the Strait of Hormuz on Friday night — with Kpler recording zero west-to-east tanker crossings and zero barrels exiting the Strait that day.
Axios' Barak Ravid reported, citing three U.S. officials, that 40 tankers transited the southern deep channel on Friday night, moving 16 million barrels of oil out of the Gulf. But Kpler's vessel-tracking data shows no commercial vessel movements in either direction through the Strait on Friday, with traffic remaining near a standstill for much of the week.
The gap between Washington's claims and independently observable traffic is enormous. U.S. officials say 16 million barrels moved. Kpler says zero. The administration is claiming victory — but the data says otherwise.
🛢️💰Cenovus Energy just reported its best-ever quarterly financial results.
Revenue: CAD 17.4 billion.
Net income: CAD 2.87 billion.
Oil sands production: record!
And they're on pace to cross 1 million boe/d in July.
🔹Q2 2026 numbers:
Adjusted funds flow: CAD 5.0 billion.
Free funds flow: CAD 3.8 billion.
Shareholder returns: CAD 1.4 billion (CAD 1.0B buybacks + CAD 400M dividends).
Net income up from CAD 851 million a year ago to CAD 2.87 billion.
🔹The production machine:
Record oil sands: 786,400 boe/d anchored by Christina Lake and Sunrise.
Total upstream: 970,400 boe/d more than 200,000 boe/d higher than a year ago.
Monthly 1 million boe/d milestone: on pace for July.
Full year guidance raised by 25,000 boe/d to 970,000–1,010,000 boe/d.
Oil sands operating costs cut 6% to CAD 10.75–11.75 per boe.
🔹The cost structure tells the real story:
CAD 10.75–11.75 per boe in oil sands operating costs.
At $100+ Brent, that is one of the widest margin structures in global upstream.
Canadian oil sands are not conventionally "cheap" to develop but once producing, they are long-life, predictable, and at these prices, extraordinarily profitable.
🔹The downstream held up too:
95% crude unit utilization.
451,500 bbls/d throughput. US refining at 67% adjusted market capture.
