mr.norm #FBPE🇬🇧🇪🇺🇩🇪

Anchor: “there are new numbers out in some of the most closely watched races that could decide who takes power in the u.s. senate. this one may offer another round of serious warning signs for republicans, especially in south carolina, a red state for sure. the new york times/siena poll that was just out this morning finds the race between the democratic candidate for senate, annie andrews, and republican, darlene graham, the sister of the late lindsey graham, that that race is now a toss-up. i mean, couldn’t be more toss-up in this race. no clear leader, obviously. maybe less surprising, another race that they’re looking at this morning, the race in florida. republican there, senator ashley moody, holding a six-point lead over angie nixon right now among likely voters. and in minnesota, the new york times says that this might be the most surprising one of all, though they also call it an outlier. the democratic candidate, peggy flanagan, up by 14 points over republican michelle tafoya on this poll. no other nonpartisan poll has found flanagan leading by more than four points since labor day, so hold on to that one just as an outlier. john? with us now, anchor of the lead and cnn chief washington correspondent, jake tapper, good morning to you, sir. i’ve got this poll from south carolina up on my screen here showing a dead heat. and polls do tell us a lot, but there are things beyond polls, i think, that you like to look at about what candidates are saying, where they’re going, what they’re doing, that can somehow be equally as instructive, maybe more so, as to which way races are headed. what are you seeing out there and looking for?” Jake Tapper: “so a few things. one, if any of our viewers out there are skeptical of public polls, they’ve been burned before, et cetera, you’re not alone. public polls are great little snapshots, but they are not predictors of anything. and so what i tend to do is look at what the politicians are doing, where they’re going, and where they’re spending their money. so for example, president trump, when it comes to south carolina and that race showing it neck and neck between darlene graham and dr. annie andrews, president trump was in south carolina last week in pendleton, and he’s going back to south carolina tomorrow to rock hill. that says to me that the race is tight. that says to me that president trump thinks he needs to go out there and actually get his people to the polls. when he says pretend i’m on the ballot, he means it. he’s talking to those low propensity voters that turn out for him and tend to sit out the midterms. it’s the same reason why he went to michigan to clare county. that’s a county that he won by more than 30 points, i think. but remember two years ago when mike rogers, the current senate nominee in michigan, ran and lost, more than 100,000 people voted for trump and didn’t vote for him at all. so trump, again, trying to rally his people to the polls. so that’s the first thing i look at. where are the big dogs going? likewise, obama went to detroit. you just had— sarah just had a long conversation about the black vote and the democratic candidates, abdul el-sayed’s difficulty getting black voters to support him, to trust him. that’s why obama was in detroit. normally, two weeks before an election, one week before an election, michigan should not be a place that a democrat has to go, like obama, and south carolina should not be a place that a republican has to go, like trump. so that’s one thing i’m looking at. the second thing i look at—” Anchor: “yeah, just to point out, jake, let me just point out. i can point out where you’re talking about here. this is wayne county. this is detroit, where president obama was. and you can see, this is a county that kamala harris won by 29 points last time. and just to put some meat on the bones, what you’re talking about, clare county, absolutely. clare county, a county he won by 38 points. donald trump did just two years ago. so going to campaign at a place where he did very, very well. i didn’t mean to interrupt, but i just wanted to show people what you’re talking about there.” Jake Tapper: “no. no, it’s great. but i mean, that’s the point, is you look where they’re going. and the fact that mike rogers is not distancing himself from trump, even though you and i know mike rogers— he used to be a commentator on cnn. before that, he was a member of congress, chairman of the house intelligence committee. he is generally a more moderate kind of republican. but that’s not how he’s campaigning. he’s campaigning as a maga republican. and his strategy is to get the trump people to vote for him. when trump says, pretend i’m on the ballot, that’s what he means. and mike rogers is saying, yes, absolutely. that’s my ticket to winning. the other thing to look at is, where are the politicians who have access to much more intense voter data than public polls do? where are they putting money? and where are they taking money out of? when the republicans take money out of the congressional district of tom kean jr. in new jersey, when they take money out of the republican senate race in north carolina or georgia, that is a vote of no confidence. and then when they send it to kansas or they send it to south carolina, again, that is saying, oh my god, we need to buck up these people in traditionally republican states. and we need to make sure that they have everything they need, because this race is tighter than i thought. same thing with democrats sending money to michigan or to maine. and then the last thing, john, is i look at, who is acting desperate? who is making wild, crazy accusations? trump calling abdul el-sayed a jihadist or saying he’d asked to go through a metal detector to get onto the floor of the senate. these are last minute fear mongering plays that suggest that they’re not confident in competing on an actual battleground of ideas. so those are the three things i look at. but ultimately, as i’m sure you are the same way, when it comes to election night, i have no idea what’s going to happen. i’m not counting on one result or another. it will all be up to the voters. and it’s actually one of the most exciting things to cover, because the polls are away, and the pundits are away, and the predictions are away. and it’s just actually real people casting their ballots.”