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Chips carried the tape and the Dow barely showed up.
$SPX +0.60% to 7,722.60. Nasdaq +1.18% to 26,477.81. Dow +0.03% to 52,377.57. Russell +1.17%.
The move: a $63B financing vehicle buying $AVGO XPUs to lease to Anthropic, deliveries in 2027. $AVGO +4.00% to $342.33, $SOXX up almost 4%, $CRWV +7.94%.
Six of 11 sectors still fell. Narrow tape, funded demand, real exposure on $AVGO's books.
10-year 4.99% into tomorrow's Fed decision at 2 p.m. ET. The line is 7,753. Lose 7,680 and I'm cash first.
Tonight at 7 p.m. PT I'll tell you whether chips held the bounce.
Full breakdown on Patreon, free as always. Link in bio.
$STX EARNINGS JUST DROPPED. Here are the numbers:
✅ Non-GAAP EPS: $7.68 vs $7.43 expected
✅ Revenue: $4.2B vs $4.15B expected, up 59.7% year over year
✅ Guide: Q2 revenue $4.8B (plus or minus $100M) vs $4.15B expected, Q2 non-GAAP EPS $9.20 (plus or minus $0.20) vs $7.43 expected
⚪ After hours: shares down 5.4%
Beat the Street on every line and the stock still dumps. That tells you the real bar was the whisper at $7.75. The line is the 2pm PT call: if management walks back that $4.8B guide, I drop the whole storage bounce idea.
Full breakdown in tonight's evening recap.
CHIPS GOT THEIR STORY BACK
$SPX closed 7,676.77, up 0.70%. The Nasdaq closed 26,169.38, up 0.82%. The Dow closed 52,361.58, up 0.28%. Chips ripped on Anthropic's IPO filing after two straight losing weeks for the big indexes, and the whole session was really one trade: AI risk back on, everything else along for the ride. Wednesday brings the FOMC decision plus $MSFT and $GOOGL after the bell, and that is the tape that decides whether this bounce means anything.
WORTH A LOOK
Anthropic filed to go public on the Nasdaq under the ticker $ANT, reporting $16.29 billion in revenue for the first half of the year, up 1,304% from the same period a year ago. Numbers like that do the talking. $NVDA rose 2.39%, $MU rose 2.98%, $AMD rose 2.80%, $AVGO rose 2.33%, and the PHLX semiconductor index jumped 2.82%. The group is still off roughly 25% from its high and down 13% this month, so I am calling this a bounce with a story attached. A bottom needs a second day. $META went the other way, down 1.88% after announcing plans to raise $95 billion to fund its AI buildout. The market paid up for the AI dream in one name and charged for it in another, and that split tells you exactly where the nerves still are.
THE TAPE
Breadth was thinner than the headline. The typical $SPX stock rose just 0.21% against the index's 0.70%, with 289 names up and 211 down. $TSLA ripped 5.21% to $391.62 and $INTC climbed 4.04% to $90.47, while $NFLX fell 2.96%, $GOOGL fell 1.06%, and $AAPL fell 1.10%. Tech led, communication services lagged, down 1.57%. $WTI slipped 1.46% to $101.76 and Brent settled at $115.81 as Saudi-Iran talks took some premium out of crude. The 10-year sat at 5.00%. And Brazil got smoked: the Ibovespa fell 13.88% after Lula won Sunday's runoff, with $EWZ down 19.82%. A reminder that the rest of the world still trades politics first.
SO WHAT
Wednesday is the whole week. FOMC decision in the afternoon, $MSFT and $GOOGL after the close, then $AMZN, $INTC, and $SNDK on Thursday plus GDP and core PCE that morning. I keep flipping on whether this chip bounce is the AI trade healing or just a one-day sigh of relief, and that flip is the tell. Until Wednesday prints, new size is a no-trade zone for me. Small positions, big curiosity. The line is 7,600 on $SPX. A close under it and I drop the bounce idea entirely.
Tomorrow morning at 8am PT I will tell you whether the bounce held overnight and what $MSFT and $GOOGL need to say to keep it alive.
SEE YOU IN THE MORNING
Full breakdown on Patreon, free as always. Link in bio.
$DELL just bought $6.32M of September 2027 calls while $AMD bought $6.18M of June 2027 puts. Two whales, opposite sides of AI hardware.
$META led the short-dated tape: $2.31M of November 20 calls plus $1.92M expiring November 2. $TSEM added $1.69M of November calls into its November 2 earnings.
The tape ran 3.9 to 1 bullish, $58.65M against $14.90M across 144 alerts, but the bearish side is concentrated in one name.
What is $AMD hedging that $DELL is not?
Chips ripped on the Anthropic S-1. $SPX +0.70% to 7,676.77, Nasdaq +0.82% to 26,169.38, Dow +0.28% to 52,361.58. $NVDA +2.39%, $MU +2.98%, semis +2.74%.
Anthropic filed with H1 revenue of $16.3B vs $1.2B a year earlier, and an $80.7B H1 net loss. Same AI story cut the other way at $META -1.88% on its up to $95B equity raise. Oil cooled, WTI $101.76, 10Y flat at 4.99%, Bitcoin near $79,800.
Close sits just under 7,683-7,692 resistance. No breakout yet, support at 7,584-7,605 never tested. FOMC Wednesday decides it. Tonight's evening recap gets into whether this bounce has legs.
Friday's whales bought the dip into FOMC week: $43.5M bullish vs $2.9M bearish, short-dated all bull. $SPX closed 7,623.68, under 7,680. FOMC Wed, PCE Thu. I am buying small, saving real size for 7,584 or a close back over 7,680.
Full breakdown: patreon.com/posts/173459487
BREAKING: Anthropic files its S-1 to list on Nasdaq as $ANT
Anthropic filed a Form S-1 for Class A common stock to list on the Nasdaq Global Select Market under $ANT.
The filing leaves share count and price range blank, and the registration is not yet effective, so $ANT is not trading yet.
First half 2026 revenue was $16.3 billion, up from $1.2 billion a year earlier, with an $80.7 billion net loss driven mostly by a $72.4 billion noncash charge. Operating loss was $693 million.
Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley lead the underwriting syndicate. Coverage points to a late November debut window.
Tape: $NVDA +2.5%, $QQQ +1.4%, $MSFT +1.2%, ES (S&P futures) +0.8%.
My read: this gives the AI trade a real public benchmark. I am not chasing AI names on this alone, a $QQQ fade back under today's open kills the enthusiasm for me.
FUTURES ARE OPEN
S&P 500 UP 0.3% 📈
NASDAQ 100 UP 0.5% 📈
DOW JONES UP 0.2% 📈
RUSSELL 2000 UP 0.4% 📈
GOLD UP 0.2% 📈
OIL DOWN 1.5% 📉
BITCOIN DOWN 0.4% 📉
All weekend the crowd braced for oil to gap up on the Houthi headlines. It opened down 1.5% instead and stocks went green. The fear trade got faded at the open.
I'm still heavy cash. $SPX holds 7,600 into the week, and it takes a close above 7,700 with semis leading before I press anything.
AdioKing retweeted
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7627 SLIPS, 7600 HOLDS
$SPX 7,623.68 -0.52%. Dow 52,215 -1.23%, down 650. $QQQ 704.40 flat, chips finally stopped bleeding, $SOXX +0.5% after -6.5% Thu.
Oil ran the day. Iran strike threats sent $WTI +4% to $103.45, Brent $117. Energy +2.6%, only 2 sectors green. 10Y back near 4.99%.
SpaceX wants 80,000 cell sites per Bloomberg: $CCI +9.5%, $TMUS -7.4%. Good prints got sold again: $AXP beat $4.68 vs $4.47, fell ~4%. $WDC beat $4.64 vs ~$4.10, fell 2.5%.
Morning levels: ES never reclaimed 7,680, $SPX closed 3 pts under the 7,627 pivot, $QQQ held 702 on the close. Kill switch was 7,600. It held.
Heavy cash into the weekend. FOMC Wed Oct 28 is the event. Tonight 7pm PT evening recap: are futures defending 7,600?
Full breakdown in the Close Recap below (free of course!)
patreon.com/posts/173187459
$WDC EARNINGS JUST DROPPED. Here are the numbers:
✅ EPS $4.64 vs $4.11 expected
✅ Revenue $4.38B vs $4.14B expected, up 55%
✅ Q2 guide: revenue $5.1B, EPS $5.80, gross margin 60% to 61%
✅ Gross margin 58.1% non-GAAP, 57.8% GAAP
⚪ Cloud was 88% of revenue, Client 7%, Consumer 5%, exabytes shipped 248
⚪ Free cash flow $1.38B, dividend raised 17% to $0.175
✅ After-hours +1.6% to $359.99 vs the $354.19 close
CEO Irving Tan: "Fiscal 2027 is off to a strong start, with results exceeding expectations, driven by robust customer demand and disciplined execution."
Hyperscaler demand and pricing are doing the work, and that is the tell $MU and $SNDK needed into their prints. I lean long storage on weakness from here. Kill switch is simple: if $WDC loses $348, today's regular session low, I step aside.
Full breakdown in tonight's evening recap.
$BE EARNINGS JUST DROPPED. Here are the numbers:
✅ Revenue $1.236B vs $1.07B expected, up 138% year over year, a quarterly record
✅ Adjusted EPS $0.94 vs $0.68 expected, GAAP EPS $0.78
✅ FY26 revenue guide RAISED to $4.4B to $4.6B, from $3.9B to $4.2B
✅ FY26 adjusted EPS guide raised to $3.10 to $3.40, from $2.55 to $2.85
✅ Adjusted gross margin 34.5%, up 412 bps year over year
⚪ Operating cash flow -$27.1M, the one soft line in the print
✅ Added to the S&P 500
❌ Stock closed -8.7% in the AI washout and is down about 4% after hours anyway
This is the strongest print of earnings season so far, and the tape still will not pay for it. Bloom just proved the AI power bottleneck is real money, raised the year by half a billion dollars, and got sold. When the forced selling ends, this is the first tape I re-read. My kill switch on the complex is unchanged: $SPX close under 7,600 and I step further aside.
Full read in tonight's Evening Recap.
The AI trade just broke, and I have been heavy cash for it since October 9th.
$SOXX -6.3%. $SMH -5.4%. $DRAM -6.9%. $META beat and is down 5% anyway. $LRCX beat and is down 10%. When beats get sold, somebody is not choosing to sell. Somebody is being made to sell.
The receipts: I flagged the rot on Oct 9, breadth never healed (38% of $SPX above its 200-day at Wednesday's close), my kill switch tripped Oct 16 under 7,692, and I stayed cash through the three-day bounce because $SMH never reclaimed 561.
Full special report on Patreon (paid members): the blowup mechanics, and the exact rules that protect an account on days like this.
patreon.com/adioking
$PG EARNINGS JUST DROPPED. Here are the numbers:
✅ Core EPS $2.00 vs $1.88 expected, diluted EPS $1.97, both up 1%
✅ Revenue $23.28B vs $22.80B expected, up 4%
⚪ Guide maintained: FY27 core EPS $6.89 to $7.11, organic sales 1% to 3%, all-in sales updated to 2% to 4% for the Thorne deal
⚪ Organic sales +4.0% on volume +2.4%, mix +1.1%, pricing +0.4%
⚪ Fabric & Home Care organic +5%, Beauty +5%, Grooming +5%, Health Care +3%, Baby, Feminine & Family Care +3%
⚪ Gross margin 49.8%, down 160 bps, operating cash flow $5.8B, $3.9B returned to shareholders
✅ Pre-market +2.97% to $161.51 vs the $156.84 close
CEO Shailesh Jejurikar: "Our solid sales, earnings and cash results in the first quarter reflect sharpened execution of our integrated strategy."
I read this as the defensive print the tape needed. Volume is back, the guide held with a $1.4B commodity headwind sitting on it. I stay constructive on defensives while this holds, and I step aside if $PG gives the pop back and loses $156.84.
Full breakdown in this morning's AdioKing Daily.
AdioKing retweeted
This is the most serious 48 hours in cybersecurity history.
"Black October" they're calling it
It seems every *hour* there's a new incident, that in a typical year, would be one of the biggest incidents of the *entire year*
SUMMARY OF THE LAST 48 HOURS:
YEAR-LEVEL INCIDENTS (In a typical year, these would be among the biggest incidents of the year):
1. PHP2Shell: a hole in the software behind ~70% of websites. Governments took sites offline.
2. eMudhra: the master keys that prove websites are real were cracked. One was the number 4.
3. California: data on every public school student since 2023 stolen, including disability status
4. Railway: hackers stole customers' secret keys from a hosting platform used by millions of developers
5. Zeabur: 321,810 accounts breached. The company is shutting down.
6. LiteLLM: an AI tool downloaded 3.4 million times a day was poisoned with a password stealer
7. GitLab: a 10-out-of-10 severity hole in every version since 2014
8. Cairn: criminals used an AI hacking tool to break into 100+ companies
9. Ahold Delhaize: hackers knocked the owner of Food Lion and Stop & Shop offline
10. Onamae: malware planted on up to 26,739 customer servers in Japan
MONTH-LEVEL INCIDENTS (In a typical month, these would be among the biggest incidents):
11. Signal: a bug could leave your mic and camera on after you hang up
12. NGINX: 3 critical holes in software running ~1/3 of websites
13. HTTP/3: a single connection can crash 7 of the 10 web server types tested
14. Plex: hackers breaking into home media servers
15. SafePay ransomware: FBI warns it has hit 600+ critical infrastructure organizations
16. Palo Alto: ransomware gangs breaking in through company firewalls
17. Bullhorn: platform used by 10,000+ companies knocked offline
18. Medi-Cal: 970,000 patients' data stolen
19. WordPress: hackers stole a plugin maker's keys and used them to plant backdoors on websites
20. AOMEI: backup software's update server handed out a backdoor
21. Meta Muse: Meta's AI agent exposed users' personal and business secrets
22. Tor: 333 relays hijacked to steal logins
23. TiDB Cloud: database company's cloud breached
Also serious:
24. State Bank of India: India's biggest bank confirms a data breach
25. OVHcloud: hackers slipped a password stealer into a cloud company's official tool
26. Siemens: a software hole being used to spread malware
27. North Korea: state hackers launch a new attack campaign on South Korea
$LRCX EARNINGS JUST DROPPED. Here are the numbers:
EPS: $2.20 non-GAAP vs $2.18 expected. GAAP EPS $2.19
Revenue: $8.22B vs $8.13B expected, up 22% sequentially and 54% year over year. A record
December guide: revenue $8.60B, plus or minus $400M, vs $8.54B expected. EPS guide $2.33, plus or minus $0.15
Gross margin: 52.4% non-GAAP. Operating margin 40.2%
Systems revenue: $5.73B. Customer support revenue: $2.49B
Deferred revenue: $2.66B, up from $2.43B. China was 35% of revenue
After hours: down 6.2%
CEO Tim Archer: "With AI driving higher semiconductor demand and greater device complexity, our focus on operational execution helped Lam deliver record revenue, profit, and earnings per share in the September quarter."
My take: record everything, a guide that only matches the street, and the stock still gets sold 6%. That is how much was priced into this name. I am not catching it tonight. Kill-switch on any dip idea: it has to hold the after-hours low into tomorrow's open and $SMH has to hold 561, or this is distribution, not a gift.
Full breakdown in tonight's evening recap.
$TXN EARNINGS JUST DROPPED. Here are the numbers:
EPS: $2.62 vs $2.42 expected, above the top of its own $2.23 to $2.57 guide
Revenue: $6.06B vs $5.93B expected, up 28% year over year and 11% sequentially
Q4 guide: revenue $5.80B to $6.30B, EPS $2.45 to $2.79
Analog revenue: $4.91B, up 32%. Embedded processing: $858M, up 21%
Operating profit: $2.87B, up 73%. Gross margin 64.2%
Free cash flow: $2.96B in the quarter, $8.42B over the last 12 months
After hours: up 1.3%
CEO Haviv Ilan: "Revenue increased 11% sequentially and 28% from the same quarter a year ago with continued broad growth in industrial, automotive and data center."
My take: this is the semi bellwether and it just confirmed the $SMH repair, broad growth across industrial, auto and data center with the cash machine fully back on. Kill-switch: the Q4 guide midpoint steps down sequentially, so if the call blames demand instead of seasonality, the bellwether read flips fast.
Full breakdown in tonight's evening recap.