afvarner

Model portfolios are becoming easier to scale, but harder to distinguish. With active ETFs now in half of advisor models, the shift goes beyond adoption. Active strategies are becoming core building blocks, giving advisors more ways to address index concentration, diversify exposures and differentiate portfolios without sacrificing scalability. Main Management CEO/CIO Kim Arthur shares his perspective alongside Elise Terry of @BlackRock and Ty Peebles, CFA of @WestEndAdvisory in a new Barron's Custom Content sponsored feature exploring what this evolution means for advisors and the future of portfolio construction. Read the feature: partners.barrons.com/blackro…

September added just 29,000 jobs and July was revised back into negative territory, yet participation climbed to 61.8% as people came back into the labor force, which is why this report reads very differently depending on which page you stop on. Full breakdown on our YT: youtube.com/watch?v=smIRiSRy…

After 65 straight months of core inflation above the Fed's 2% target, markets more than doubled the odds of an October hike in a single week, from 27% to about 58%. What is keeping inflation sticky even with oil down 7%? Watch our latest Weekly Market Commentary to find out: youtube.com/watch?v=knES3wex… #Inflation #FOMC #Fed #InterestRates #CorePCE #Macro #Market

Diesel just hit an all-time high of $5.97 a gallon while core inflation sits at its lowest level since March 2021, which is a stranger combination than it sounds and the reason this week's Fed meeting is getting so much attention. Full breakdown: youtube.com/watch?v=Sbk3T8lL…

The August jobs report was strong enough that hike probabilities rose on the release, and weak enough underneath to complicate the picture: payrolls tripled forecasts at +162k, while hiring announcements ran 57% below normal and wage growth slowed to 3.09%. That could leave inflation as the deciding factor for the Fed, so it's worth knowing where the labor data actually stands before Friday's CPI. Our research team, led by @afvarner, walks through these considerations and more in our full Weekly Market Note episode: youtube.com/watch?v=f90GhhSL…

This week’s Market Note with Alex Varner (Head of Research) and James Maxwell (VP of Research) covers: • Fed Outlook: CPI surprised to the upside, but markets still price a 95% chance of a cut at Wednesday’s FOMC. SEP projections and language will guide the path ahead. • Inflation: Headline and Core CPI hit their fastest pace since January. Shelter cooled, but food and tariff-driven goods inflation picked up. • PPI: Deflationary at -0.12% MoM, driven by margin compression—raising the risk of future pass-through pricing. • Business & Consumers: NFIB optimism hit its best since January, while Michigan Sentiment slid as long-term inflation expectations rose. • Housing: Mortgage rates dipped to ~6.5%, lifting applications to their highest since 2022. A “five handle” could unlock more buyer demand. Watch the full episode and hear how these trends shape the macro outlook in the latest Weekly Market Commentary: youtube.com/watch?v=hsAzWxSY…

Main Management is pleased to share that the Net Expense Ratio of the Main BuyWrite ETF (BUYW) has been reduced to 0.99%, effective immediately. “Lowering BUYW’s Net Expense Ratio to 0.99% encompasses our mission: Put clients first, deliver exceptional service, and manage what we can control, with the goal of allowing investors to keep more of their potential returns.” - Darol Ryan, Managing Partner at Main Management We invite you to read the latest press release for full details: mainmgt.com/wp/wp-content/up…

This week’s Market Note with Alex Varner (Head of Research) and James Maxwell (VP of Research) covers: • Jobs: Payrolls rose just 22K, with June revised negative (the first decline since 2020). JOLTS, ADP, and job cut data all confirm a softer labor market. • Participation & Unemployment: Prime-age participation hit a post-2024 high, while U3 and U6 unemployment climbed to their highest since 2021. • Fed Outlook: Weak jobs data boosts odds of a September cut—90% for 25bps, 10% for 50bps—pending CPI/PPI this week. • Productivity & Costs: Q2 productivity surged to 3.3% (best since 2023), while unit labor costs eased. Watch the full recap and hear how these trends shape the macro outlook here: youtube.com/watch?v=BCccoHwt…

This week’s Market Note with Alex Varner (Head of Research) and James Maxwell (VP of Research) covers: - GDP revised up to 3.3% - Corporate profits rebound, margins steady - Durable goods & capex show strongest gains in years - Consumers spend more than inflation, energy costs decade-low share - Housing prices soften, hinting at affordability Watch the full recap and hear how these trends shape the macro outlook: youtube.com/watch?v=RefNMiyd…

This week’s Market Note with Alex Varner (Head of Research) and James Maxwell (VP of Research) covers: - Markets Move Higher: Broad strength across equities, led by small caps and healthcare. Tech and communication services cooled after leading much of the year. - Fed Policy Shift: Powell’s Jackson Hole speech interpreted as dovish, with markets now leaning toward a 25 bps rate cut in September. - Housing Strain: Existing home sales up, but high prices and rates keep the market tight. Inventories at highest since 2016; permits slowing sharply (lowest since mid-2020). - Global Manufacturing Revival: U.S. PMI hits highest since 2022 (53.3), India strongest since 2009. Europe improving but still near contraction. Services more mixed, though U.S. remains solidly in expansion. Watch the full recap and hear how these trends shape the macro outlook: youtube.com/watch?v=YuCu9Qzi…

This week’s Market Note with Alex Varner (Head of Research) and James Maxwell (VP of Research) covers: • Markets mostly green: Europe leads (+27% YTD); small caps and healthcare show strength, signaling broader rotation • Inflation pressures: CPI in line (+0.2% headline, +0.3% core MoM); tariffs lift durable goods; PPI +0.9% MoM, biggest since March 2022 • Fed at a crossroads: Weak payrolls suggest easing, but hot inflation pressures tightening; September FOMC likely contentious • Consumer resilience: Retail sales +0.5% MoM, June revised higher; autos and furniture rebound despite tariff uncertainty • Industrial production mixed: Output soft, but AI-driven high-tech demand boosts semiconductors to strongest growth since 2021 Watch the full recap and hear how these trends shape the macro outlook: youtube.com/watch?v=15XrjaPp…

We’re proud to share: Main Thematic ETF (TMAT) received a 5-Star Overall Morningstar Rating™ – out of 166 funds in the US Fund Global Small/Mid Stock category, based on risk-adjusted returns as of 7/31/2025. Main Management has applied sector-rotation investing with ETFs for 20+ years, so we know the strengths – and the limitations – of sector-level investing. TMAT aims to address one of the largest limitations: sectors tend to reflect today’s business models rather than emerging growth opportunities, especially in nascent technologies. Within TMAT, we allocate to specific long-term themes and to leaders within those themes that exhibit traits common to durable innovators: accelerating revenue, improving estimate trends, and reinvestment into scalable platforms. The strategy blends our two areas of specialization: long-term wealth generation through market cycles and a forward-looking lens shaped by our San Francisco roots – where many of the next generation’s leading companies are being built right in our backyard. See ETF website for full context: mainmgtetfs.com/tmat/ Disclosures: Based on risk-adjusted returns, TMAT was also rated 5-stars by Morningstar for the 3-year period out of 166 in the US Fund Global Small/Mid Stock category for the period ending 7/31/2025. There is no 5-year or 10-year rating due to the Fund inception date of 1/28/2021. The Morningstar Rating™ for funds, or “star rating”, is calculated for managed products (including mutual funds, variable annuity and variable life sub-accounts, exchange-traded funds, closed-end funds, and separate accounts) with at least a three-year history. Exchange-traded funds and open-ended mutual funds are considered a single population for comparative purposes. It is calculated based on a Morningstar Risk-Adjusted Return measure that accounts for variation in a managed product’s monthly excess performance, placing more emphasis on downward variations and rewarding consistent performance. The Morningstar Rating does not include any adjustment for sales loads. The top 10% of products in each product category receive 5 stars, the next 22.5% receive 4 stars, the next 35% receive 3 stars, the next 22.5% receive 2 stars, and the bottom 10% receive 1 star. The Overall Morningstar Rating for a managed product is derived from a weighted average of the performance figures associated with its three-, five-, and ten-year (if applicable) Morningstar Rating metrics. © 2025 Morningstar All Rights Reserved. Past performance does not guarantee future results. 20250815-4732428