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NC
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🚨 NC EARLY VOTE: TUESDAY, OCT. 27
🗳️ 179,386 voted in person Tuesday (Day 13).
TUESDAY’S PARTY IPEV BREAKDOWN:
🔵 DEM: 62,090 (34.6%)
🔴 REP: 54,764 (30.5%)
⚪ UNA: 61,986 (34.6%)
🟡 Other: 546 (0.3%)
📬 New mail votes: 4,315
🚨 TOTAL VOTES CAST: 1,936,518
🗳️ IPEV: 1,887,427
📬 Mail: 49,091
📊 COMBINED IPEV + MAIL:
🔵 DEM: 777,948 (40.2%) ↓0.8 pp
🔴 REP: 483,269 (25.0%) ↑0.7 pp
⚪ UNA: 670,344 (34.6%) ↑0.1 pp
🟡 Other: 4,957 (0.3%)
My NC Dashboard Propensity tracker is below. I’ve included a tab where you can see remaining 4/4 and 3/4 voters who are left by county or zoom in by precinct. You can also see another tab which has historical comparisons to 2022’s final turnout as well as my modeled forecast turnout for this year as well. claude.ai/artifact/JmEL65KzV…
🚨 NC EARLY VOTE: DAY 13 PROPENSITY SHIFTS
How has NC’s remaining electorate changed through Tuesday, Oct. 27?
Based on participation in the last 4 general elections (2018–24).
Numbers in parentheses = voted Tuesday.
4/4 voters remaining:
🔵 DEM: 331,410 (↓33,042)
🔴 REP: 515,950 (↓35,989)
⚪ UNA: 408,605 (↓31,660)
3/4 remaining:
🔵 DEM: 232,722 (↓11,401)
🔴 REP: 315,446 (↓9,411)
⚪ UNA: 304,222 (↓11,415)
2/4 remaining:
🔵 DEM: 240,725 (↓7,591)
🔴 REP: 294,348 (↓4,727)
⚪ UNA: 341,830 (↓7,516)
1/4 remaining:
🔵 DEM: 222,093 (↓6,702)
🔴 REP: 277,377 (↓3,690)
⚪ UNA: 410,897 (↓7,659)
0/4 remaining:
🔵 DEM: 203,121 (↓4,354)
🔴 REP: 212,176 (↓2,088)
⚪ UNA: 580,158 (↓5,328)
📊 TOTAL ACTIVE VOTERS REMAINING:
🔵 DEM: 1,230,071 (↓63,090)
🔴 REP: 1,615,297 (↓55,905)
⚪ UNA: 2,045,712 (↓63,578)
4,926,811 active voters remain statewide
🚨 NC EARLY VOTE: HOW DID 2026 VOTERS VOTE IN 2024 & 2022?
🗳️ 2024 VOTING HISTORY
Of those voting early in person in 2026:
Already voted early in 2024:
🔵 DEM: 84.6%
🔴 REP: 89.9%
⚪ UNA: 82.1%
📊 Overall: 85.1%
2024 Election Day → 2026 Early Vote:
🔵 DEM: 32,554 (4.3%)
🔴 REP: 15,411 (3.3%)
⚪ UNA: 31,700 (4.9%)
📊 Total: 79,665
2024 Mail → 2026 Early Vote:
🔵 DEM: 19,286 (2.5%)
🔴 REP: 8,913 (1.9%)
⚪ UNA: 20,509 (3.2%)
📊 Total: 48,708
Did not vote in 2024:
🔵 DEM: 6.6%
🔴 REP: 4.1%
⚪ UNA: 8.3%
📊 Overall: 6.6%
🗳️ 2022 VOTING HISTORY
Of current 2026 early voters:
• 1,071,319 voted early in 2022
• 308,556 voted on Election Day (16.4%)
• 52,594 voted by mail
• 451,453 did not vote (23.9%)
2022 Election Day → 2026 Early Vote:
🔵 DEM: 110,186 (14.4%)
🔴 REP: 93,079 (19.7%)
⚪ UNA: 105,291 (16.2%)
🚨 CALDWELL COUNTY EARLY VOTE — OCT. 27
🗳️ 1,379 new votes today
NEW VOTES BY PARTY:
🔴 REP: +740 (53.7%)
⚪ UNA: +413 (29.9%)
🔵 DEM: +224 (16.2%)
CUMULATIVE PARTY TOTALS & SHIFTS:
🔴 REP: 5,770 (46.78%) ↑ 0.87 pp
⚪ UNA: 3,905 (31.66%) ↓ 0.22 pp
🔵 DEM: 2,635 (21.36%) ↓ 0.65 pp
🗳️ CUMULATIVE TOTAL: 12,335 votes
