Why agentic coding is overrated and an univestable category “I actually do think that agentic coding is quite overrated in terms of a market, because I think it moves to the model provider. The model itself is where most of the value is coming from. I do not think it is the harness or the IDE so much. It is not super sticky. People move between these things pretty fluidly. I think agentic coding as a market, modulo the model providers, is something I would not invest in today.” @NaveenGRao Love to hear your thoughts @michaeltruell @amasad @simonw @martinfowler

there are 2 internets right now 1. where agent swarms run entire companies, everyone’s hiring “AI employees”, and everyone’s chasing the one-person billion dollar company 2. where a real users, paying real money, takes a photo of their laptop screen with their phone to share something the hype wave we all live in makes it feel like everything has changed, and in some ways it has ChatGPT just hit 1.2 billion weekly users, which sounds massive until you realize about 85% of the world still doesn’t use it we’re debating superintelligence while most people are still figuring out how to share a screenshot both of these realities are true at the same time and there’s real money in building for both

what are the new types of founders that might get unlocked in the post-AI era? - solo founders - non-technical founders - domain expert with no tech experience (ex: a dentist builds dental SaaS empire) - content creator whose new content is "apps" ... who else is on this list?

Pretty things in the ocean This is a nudibranch

You should have used AIApply, buddy!

I'll buy your shares for 1100. DM me.

AI MAY NOT FIRE YOU. IT MAY DELETE THE JOB YOU WERE SUPPOSED TO LEARN ON. Companies used to have a reason to hire people who were not very good yet. Junior engineers broke things, analysts needed checking, marketers produced work that got rewritten. That was the deal. The work still had enough value to justify paying someone while they learned how to become useful. AI is eating that layer first. That creates a strange labor market. Experienced people become more valuable because they can suddenly cover more ground with the same headcount, while beginners lose the work that used to turn them into experienced people. A senior engineer with good product judgment, customer context and a few strong agents can absorb tasks that used to be spread across several roles. From the company's point of view, that is great. From the point of view of someone trying to become senior, it is brutal. The real problem shows up a few years later. Senior people do not appear out of nowhere. They are built out of thousands of small mistakes, boring tasks, bad decisions, reviews, rewrites and years of being trusted with work that was slightly above their level. If AI takes over enough of that work, the pipeline starts to break. Companies may still complain about a shortage of senior talent while quietly removing the jobs that used to produce it. The people who make it through may look very different from the old career ladder. More founders, solo builders, operators and people who had to learn product, sales, code and management at the same time because there was nobody else around to do it. They will arrive already battle-tested. That leaves a pretty ugly question for everyone else. If companies stop paying people to learn, where exactly are beginners supposed to become good?