Ajit Mishra (@ajitosu) profile picture

PhD, Materials Consultant

US
Joined July 2020
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Until 10 days back, there were many people shorting photonics stocks (digital footprint 😂) $AXTI $AAOI without realizing that this theme would be to first to go up when the market improves. One of the reason for shorting (say $AXTI) in early 60s was, it rallied 6400% last yr
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This is trading in $80s now, with the same logic why not short now? If not, then your logic was flawed it was NOT the stock rather the environment which was bearish.
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Despite of so much uncertainty, there are a handful of stocks not showing any signs of weaknesses (yet) and rallying hard on any green day. Once the market will be conducive, most probably these can go up very fast. $AAOI $VIAV $GEV $PL $BW $FSLY $SNDK $AEHR
05 Apr 2026: Weekend Homework ✏️ Look at all of these on a weekly and daily chart timeframe - no excuses for folks saying there are no setups anymore, there are clearly many developing/broken out already! Camp 1 — Agentic AI / Edge Compute: - ARM, NET, UI, SKM, DOCN, AKAM, FSLY, RNG, LSCC (9) Camp 2A — Compute Infra + Photonics: - INTC, AMD, MRVL, STM, ACLS, UCTT, ICHR, Q, FORM, KLAC, ONTO, MPWR, AEIS, FN, MTSI, KEYS, LITE, CIEN, AAOI, VIAV, TSEM, AEHR, LWLG, AXTI, AMAT, GLW, TER, SNDK, WDC, STX, MU (31) Camp 2B — Physical Infra: - GEV, NBIS, DELL, VRT, MOD, POWL, NOK, EQIX, DLR, AGX, ETN, NVT, EME, MTZ (14) Camp 2C — Energy Infra: - BW, SQM, ALB, SEDG, NXT, SOLS, PWR, ON (8) Space: - RKLB, PL, LUNR, ASTS, SATS, FLY, SATL, GSAT, IRDM, BKSY, VSAT (11)
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Anyone who is saying this is oversold or that is oversold has forgotten 2022 panic dumping and extended selling. One of fin twits (and mine) favorite, $SOFI dropped from $26 to $4.50. I was “bullish” and kept buying without respecting simple stage analysis, poor market condition
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sector rotation, institutions selling etc. The current market is giving a similar vibe, will it be like last year quick correction and recovery or can be like 2022? Nobody knows. However, one thing is clear that other than oil, chemicals, fertilizers there is no uptrend anywhere
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Stick to basic rules (note to myself too to not be adventurous in this market) 😂Other than Oil, Fertilizers, Chemicals (all are intertwined) and barring some names in photonics (showing some weaknesses) and UFO, nothing is buyable. $SPY $QQQ $IWM $SMH $UFO $XTL $USO
Anyone who follows Stan’s moving averages concept closely must be seating on cash right now. In the recent years, Stan suggested to get out or heavily trim below 50sma (not 150sma which is in his book) as the market is volatile in the last couple of yrs $SPY $QQQ $IWM
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I would be careful with short too as it can get squeezed very quickly. The way year is going, if your portfolio is flat (by being on cash or hedging with what all names from defensive stocks are working), it’s a win…
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$SPY $QQQ $IWM This makes lot more sense. Other than Oil stocks (and photonics, memory stocks), there is no sub-sector (out of ~160) doing well. Photonics and memory stocks also showed y’day what can go wrong if there will be panic in the market. This is a day traders market.
Feels like market setting up for a similar upside reversal trade to January 24th, 2022. First leg down out of a multi-month topping pattern. Flushed through 200-day moving average with consecutive down days. Big panic gap down the following Monday and undercut the previous lows. Nearing April 2025 low AVWAPs on $SPY $QQQ
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Are we going to see 200sma undercut and recovery (doubtful in the current geopolitical climate and mid-term election year), 2022 bear market (doubtful with the current government fixated to stock market) or last year correction (likely) or maybe a mix of last year and 2022.
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In the stock market, price action is the ultimate truth. Like other discipline, in the stock market too people use technical jargons (NAAIM exposure index, thousands of indicators etc.) to make them sound "smarter" but at the end of the day NOBODY knows much. $SPY $QQQ $IWM $RSP
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In the current market, oil stocks (for obvious reasons), semiconductor equipment stocks, photonics, some software names, some space/rocket stocks and a few more are the one doing well. So, all those positioned in these stocks are not feeling much heat. $AXTI $AAOI $BW $LITE $ICHR
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Anyone who follows Stan’s moving averages concept closely must be seating on cash right now. In the recent years, Stan suggested to get out or heavily trim below 50sma (not 150sma which is in his book) as the market is volatile in the last couple of yrs $SPY $QQQ $IWM
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Moreover, once the $SPY drops below 50sma and not recovered quickly (stays below 50sma for 10 days or so) then the probability of correction (or even bear market) increases significantly. Anyone who is suggesting to long ANYTHING then run away in other direction.
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Who all got humbled (including, me) and learned from 2022 can truly relate to what the market is doing right now (precisely from Oct 10th onwards). A basic understanding of stage analysis can help in avoiding a major damage to your portfolio $PLTR $HOOD $NFLX $MSFT $AMZN
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$SOFI 👏👏
We’re about to begin our Q2’23 earnings call - follow along here for the highlights from our CEO @AnthonyNoto and our CFO @clapointe12. But before we begin, a reminder from Legal:
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Howz your short doing for $CVNA? 😜
We are short $CVNA. Report avail at kerr.co/cvna. Carvana is insolvent, its equity is worthless. Nothing more than a poorly run auto retailer, the company will never generate sustainable positive cash flow until its debt is equitized (1/9)
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$NIO Following Jake tweets for a while and he is exactly correct about NIO…👏👏
$NIO #NIO Been quite the breakout this week!
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👇👇
Harsh Truth: Most people don't really care about you. The Spotlight Effect:
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$BTC After multiple attempts, it crossed 25k 👏👏
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$MCAE After a long while, allocated some $ to a lotto play for swing trading. Picked some in high $4 and low $5. Ticker change on Tuesday. Another crappy merger.
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$AAPL 👇👇
$APPL coming up on $157.50 pivot. Digesting the worst earnings in years. Hopefully most are playing the charts because otherwise you would have shorted this just because of that report.
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$AAPL $AMZN $GOOG $TSLA This gonna be a tough year for 🐻🐻 similar to 2022 for bulls……..
$AMZN $GOOG $AAPL despite misses in all three mega cap, most of the growth stocks are down by only 2-3% (yet) after near 100% rally in the last 3 weeks or so. If they won’t dip much tomorrow and/or next week then 2023 will be very tough for 🐻
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“All parameters are pointing to great recession/depression - Stock/Macro Gurus”…😂😂😂… At the end of day, nobody can predict correctly….
January Payrolls 517K, Exp. 188K
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