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real alpha real strategies | robinhood

grind
Joined January 2016
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vlad's AMA laid out the future of robinhood chain. $PONS fits right in the middle of it the plan he described: - tokenized stocks - memes - AI agents but a chain is just pipes until something fills them. it needs places where users actually show up and trade
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the biggest wallets on robinhood chain have been buying only two coins this month wallets holding $100K+, last 4 weeks: - $PONS: +$2.3M - $CASHCAT: +$940K - everything else: flat or selling
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memes are dead, they said. this wallet found a 200x three days ago $ANAKIN at a $20K market cap on oct 30. two days later it topped $4M - first entry: $204, now worth ~$12.5K even after a 57% pullback - total on this coin: $9K in, $32.6K out one coin. one wallet. while the timeline was busy writing obituaries for the meme market the market isn't dead because people say it is. it's dead when the good wallets stop finding winners. they haven't next time someone tells you memes are over, check what the best wallets bought this week
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someone made $52M in minutes. the buyers lost 95% in 5 hours $UNI was hyped as the first token to hit $1B this year. 99% of supply was locked before launch, and the market took that as proof it was safe it ran straight to $200M. five hours later it was at $10M one launch made more than most meme traders make in their whole career. that's not trading. that's information asymmetry, fully cashed out the warning signs are never on the chart. they're in the details before launch: - who locked the supply - whose wallets actually hold it - when it unlocks - which smart wallets were positioned early all of that is visible onchain if you look you don't have to trade solana trenches. but you should know how these setups work. by the time everyone understands it, the money is already gone
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$PONS did $18M in volume yesterday. that's a new low every number is down again: - volume: $18M, down 33% - fees: $154K, down 31% - revenue: $27K, down 27% - new launches: 894, down 19% the burn is still running on reserves: - 157K $PONS bought and burned in 24h, about $38K - $240K still waiting in the vault, around 0.1% of supply for now the buyback is spending more than the platform earns. that cushion won't last forever $17.37B in total volume says pons can do big numbers. right now it just has nobody to do them with
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one week of $PONS in numbers. it's not pretty - volume: $241M, a fraction of what a single peak day used to do - launches: ~10K total, about 1.5K a day - revenue: $355K, around $50K a day - buybacks: ~$25K a day - burns: ~130K $PONS a day the machine still works. it just has almost nothing to run on pons doesn't need a new feature. it needs a reason for people to launch and trade again so what's the plan? robinhood chain needs a new meta, and pons is the one best placed to start it
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a wallet put $2,489 into $GANG. it's already taken $73,900 out and it's still holding $56K worth the trade: - average entry: $216K market cap - token now: $7M+ - no guessing, just a low-cap entry and the nerve to hold this is why i don't care about win rate anymore. in early-stage memes you can be wrong ten times. one trade like this pays for all of it a token pays out once. but a wallet that spots new narratives early and buys before anyone else? that one keeps paying if you follow it so every wallet like this goes straight into my watchlist picking the right people beats picking the right coins
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robinhood chain is at the bottom of the cycle. here are 10 projects i'm tracking for when it comes back not my holdings, not advice. it all depends on volume returning to the chain, and some of these won't make it top conviction: - $PONS ($151.5M): the #1 launchpad on the chain. first to benefit when activity returns. watch current revenue, not old records looking to buy: - $BUCKET ($1.3M): tokenized stock rewards plus a launchpad. check real payouts, taxes and liquidity. could beat $INDEX bullish if robinhood narrative returns: - $INDEX ($5.3M): trading fees paid to holders in tokenized stocks. very robinhood. key question is yield when volume is low - $DUAL ($19.4M): programmable RWA with a strong team. big raise means possible sell pressure - $STONKBROKER ($12.7M): NFTs, tools and markets around stock tokens. separate what the token gives vs what the NFT gives - $BUN ($6.5M): meme backed by a launchpad where AI agents launch and market-make tokens - $VIRTUAL ($403.8M): already multichain, but the price looks attractive here high risk, small size only: - $PRISM ($1.01M): RWA marketplace with a messy past. cheap, but careful - $V4 ($950K): hooks launchpad that never caught users and dumped hard - $PAIR ($1.22M): was first with multi-asset pairing, but others have moved past it when robinhood chain wakes up, the leaders move first. the rest follow or disappear
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20 coins i'm holding my attention on for the next bull run. no narrative chasing, picked sector by sector privacy: - $ZAMA: confidential smart contracts - $ZEC: the privacy leader - $ZANO: privacy L1 culture: - $PENGU: pudgy penguins ecosystem - $PUMP: meme launchpad infra: - $QNT: interoperability - $GEOD: decentralized precision positioning - $NEAR: next-gen L1 - $LINK: oracles RWA: - $CHEX: RWA infrastructure - $ONDO: tokenized real-world assets AI: - $QUBIC: AI + useful proof-of-work - $TAO: decentralized AI network - $GRASS: decentralized data network - $VVV: private AI inference trading & defi: - $AERO: base liquidity hub - $BP: backpack exchange ecosystem - $PENDLE: yield trading - $HYPE: onchain trading + its own L1 - $LIT: decentralized perps a third of this list is AI and privacy. that's where i think most of the new money goes next cycle come back to this list when the bull is here
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$PONS and $CASHCAT built robinhood chain’s hype. now robinhood is letting it die the first two months, the team was everywhere. builders felt it, traders felt it, and the chain was flying. then the team went quiet, and the charts followed what would bring it back: - show up again. talk to builders, be in the trenches, not just on stage - bring native tokens into the app. $CASHCAT already proved app users want them, a big chunk of its supply sits in robinhood wallets - reward the winners. $PONS got close to a $1B valuation and got no real support from robinhood - real money for builders: grants, audits, hackathons, liquidity help. the big grant program that was teased still hasn’t shown up staying «neutral» sounds fair. but every strong chain has projects it stands behind. without leaders, attention goes elsewhere robinhood has 25M users. the chain just needs them to see it
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$PONS bounced off $0.23. now comes the hard part price is back around $0.248. not a reversal yet, but the first reaction off the lows the size is still there: - $17.17B total volume - $203M in fees - $37M in protocol revenue the problem is the trend: - september revenue: $23.9M - october so far: $2.2M - main pool liquidity: $3.23M → $2.26M in 10 days levels i'm watching: - $0.23: the low that has to hold - $0.26: first test - $0.28-0.30: where it starts to look like a real turn a green candle alone means nothing. i want price above resistance, liquidity stop falling and revenue start ticking up all three together, and this gets interesting
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two launchpads that kept printing money while everyone left: $PONS and $STONK onchain tokens are down hard, but these two still earn real revenue and burn their tokens with it $PONS on robinhood chain: - $17B+ total volume - $37M+ protocol revenue - 980K+ tokens launched - fees fund buyback and burn $STONK on solana: - $28.65M protocol revenue in september alone - ~60% of revenue goes to buyback and burn - trading ~70% below ATH the logic for both is simple: more users, more volume, more fees, more burns the risk is also simple: revenue is way down from september i'm not calling onchain season yet. but if volume comes back, these are the first two i'd look at
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robinhood chain memes are down bad. the money on the chain isn't $CASHCAT, $PONS, $AI, $INDEX. all red, all getting dumped by people who bought the excitement what didn't move: - TVL on the chain is still ~$1.13B - no big outflow to other chains - liquidity is sitting there, waiting a dying chain loses capital first. here prices dropped, capital stayed bottoms like this take time. the boredom hurts more than the crash my plan: - some cash? adding slowly - already holding? not selling at these prices the next run will start when nobody is watching
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$PONS still owns 76% of robinhood chain's launchpad market. the volume just keeps shrinking today's numbers: - daily volume: $33M, down 23% from yesterday - protocol revenue: $55K - market share on robinhood chain: 76% the burn side: - $44K just went into the buyback and burn vault, about 0.03% of total supply - $300K is waiting to be deployed, about 0.2% of total supply pons is still the clear leader on the chain. but leading a quiet market only gets you so far the dominance is there. the volume needs to come back for it to matter
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you can now borrow against $PONS on robinhood chain morpho, the biggest lending protocol on the chain with $609M TVL, accepts: - tokenized stocks - $PONS - $AI - $CASHCAT put them up as collateral, borrow stablecoins, keep your bag memecoins getting accepted as collateral next to stocks. that's a big step for the robinhood chain ecosystem
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$PONS $CASHCAT $INDEX are bleeding. robinhood chain isn't the timeline says the chain is dead. retail is selling at a loss. the onchain data says the opposite: - TVL keeps climbing, now above $1.15B - volume keeps growing - new liquidity is coming in while prices are down if the chain was really over, money would be bridging out. instead it's staying and buying up every panic sell prices are falling, but capital isn't leaving. that's not what a dead chain looks like someone is quietly loading while CT dumps at the lows robinhood season 2 might be closer than people think
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paid trading bots are a scam. these 10 free repos do it better track wallets: - handi-cat > telegram alerts when any solana wallet buys or sells - vybe top traders > finds the most profitable wallets in any token - stampede > robinhood chain: see what wallets sold right before buying the next coin check a coin: - dexscreener-cli > hot token scanner in your terminal, no api key needed - rug-check-mcp > let claude check a contract for rug risk AI tools: - solana-agent-kit > plug any AI agent into solana - tradingview-mcp > charts, TA and backtests inside claude test before you risk money: - freqtrade > backtest your strategy on years of data stay safe: - revoke.cash > cancel old token approvals - rabby > wallet that shows exactly what changes before you sign red flag for fake repos: old account, thousands of stars, telegram link in the description. that's a drainer never paste your private key into anything you found on github save it now, you'll need it on your next trade
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before you ape any memecoin, check who's behind it. here are 5 free tools that do it in 2 minutes paste the contract address and look: - rugcheck > skip the score, go straight to insiders. that's who holds the supply - bubblemaps > shows if the top wallets are linked to each other - gmgn > every token the dev launched before and how each one ended - iris (iriscan.app) > traces the dev's money back to the source, even through mixers and bridges. 10 free scans, no sign-up - dexscreener > top traders tab shows who's sitting on big profits and can dump on you none of these need your wallet. if a checker asks you to connect or sign anything, it's a scam save this for your next buy
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$PONS buybacks are about to get a lot smaller what's left in the system: - splitter: $442K, gone in 3-4 days at this pace - escrow: $52K - new intake: $0 the buyback you see now is still running on money from better weeks once the splitter is empty, the next cycle runs on today's revenue. and today's volume is $32M, with everything else down alongside it nothing is broken. the 7-day cycle just caught up with lower fees until volume comes back, expect small buybacks. plan around it
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$PONS made $140M in fees in september. september vs october so far: - fees: $140.2M → $11.5M - protocol revenue: $23.9M → $1.7M - buybacks: $9.4M → $700K the month isn't over, but the slowdown is obvious. barely any new launches, barely any trading does it die? i don't think so if robinhood chain heats up again, pons is first in line to catch it. and the best entries usually show up when everyone's busy fudding from here, a return to ATH is ~5x. that's a risk/reward i'm happy to ape and hold not advice, just how i see it
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