For TikTok researchers, this feels like a stressful moment—potential bans, disrupted projects, uncertain futures. But it’s also a moment of opportunity. Disruption opens new angles and questions.
Here are 5 thing that I'm thinking through in this strange moment🧵
5/6: Maybe the most valuable research won’t be about TikTok itself but about how digital cultures adapt to structural disruption. Real-time evolution of platform practices is happening now.
SCENARIO 4 THREAD - THE BAN TAKES EFFECT:
1/4: Enforcing a ban on TikTok would mark the first time Congress has prohibited a specific platform (as far as I know, not a legal expert), raising questions about future thresholds for national security risks.
3/4: A U.S. ban on TikTok could accelerate the "splinternet," leading to the fragmentation of global platforms into national versions, promoting digital sovereignty through forced localization.
SCENARIO 3 THREAD – SUPREME COURT INTERVENTION:
1/6: TikTok plans to appeal to the Supreme Court and seek a "stay" to halt enforcement during the appeal process. If granted, this stay would allow TikTok to continue operating in the U.S. until a final decision is made.
5/6: Even a conservative Supreme Court might be wary of upholding a law that bans a specific platform, considering the implications for government control over speech platforms.
SCENARIO 2 THREAD - THE TRUMP WORKAROUND: 1/6: For me -- feels like a classic case of the 'I'd like to see ol Donny Trump wriggle out of THIS jam' dynamic.
5/6 Alternative solutions: Trump might direct the Attorney General to deprioritize enforcement or negotiate new data control measures, such as extending a "Project Texas"-style arrangement (although this hasn't satisfied regulators thus far), instead of pursuing full divestment.

