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Smart-money flow, decoded
Joined November 2021
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🏆 the conviction board. live options flow — calls and puts, ranked 0-100 on 8 factors. 🔥 options returns after the board fired: $AAPL → +3,336%
$ASTS → +1,040%
$CRWV → +956%
$NBIS → +540% full log (wins AND losses) public. ✅ free · no signup · no email 👉 algoxflow.com/conviction
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Calls vs puts in today's 8 biggest options prints: Calls: $277k across 2 prints Puts: $2.7M across 4 prints Largest: $LITE 420P for $1.9M. Positions, not confirmed direction. The feed doesn't say who's buying or selling.
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$SPY is red 2.76% — and $2.1M of options premium got bought. Price and flow pointing opposite ways is the part worth looking at. One of them is early.
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Biggest moves the options market is pricing into 2026-11-05: 1. $QQQ ±2.31% 2. AMZN ±2.3% 3. MSFT ±1.84% 4. SPY ±1.65% 5. IWM ±1.58% That's the straddle, not a forecast. It's what you're paying for.
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$INTC — 53.77 Put wall 50. Call wall 59. Which one gets touched first? 👇
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Biggest sweep on the tape right now: $MU 700 CALL 2029-01-19 $6.3M in premium Bought at the ask — someone paid up to get filled now rather than wait.
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QQQ at 664.87: no clean flip, put wall 670, call wall 700. The whole day in one picture.
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We're cautious on $NVDA under null. Flip null. Call wall 207.5. Trading 191.76. The bars are what the other side is forced to hedge. That's the part we actually trade off.
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Here's what the Democratic election rout could mean for the U.S. economy $SPY 765.42, above its 698.05 flip. Hedging fades the move.
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$MU is red 8.71% — and $3.1M of options premium got bought. Price and flow pointing opposite ways is the part worth looking at. One of them is early.
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Reporting Thu, and what options are pricing: $NET ±11.8% NTRA ±11.6% CMI ±7.9% PH ±6.7% MNST ±6.3% We measured 2,422 of these. Options overpriced the move 57% of the time.
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2 of 4 closed green today. $NVDA 205C-11/4 -77% AVGO 337.5C-11/4 -48% SPCX 138C-11/4 +54% NVDA 207.5C-11/4 +63% Entry and exit both posted live. Reds included — that's the point.
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Reporting Wed, and what options are pricing: $APP ±12.5% DDOG ±12.4% ARM ±8.4% QCOM ±7.2% COR ±7.2% We measured 2,422 of these. Options overpriced the move 57% of the time.
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THE 23 BIGGEST EARNINGS BETS THIS WEEK Tiered by the move options are actually pricing: EXTREME (14%+) - CRWV, ASTS, SANM HIGH (12-14%) - FLY, ONTO, VIV ELEVATED (9-12%) - NET, NTRA, AQN MODERATE (under 9%) - ELAN, ARM, LEGN $CRWV is priced to move 17.7% in one session.
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Where we stand on $BB: Spot 8.71 · flip 8.51 · call wall 9 The bars are what the other side is forced to hedge. That's the part we actually trade off.
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Calls vs puts in today's 8 biggest options prints: Calls: $573k across 4 prints Puts: $648k across 3 prints Largest: $EMR 175P for $331k. Positions, not confirmed direction. The feed doesn't say who's buying or selling.
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Transcat shares surge to record as earnings beat estimates, outlook improves $SPY 767.87, below its 767.9 flip. Hedging feeds the move.
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$DIA — 532.75 Put wall 515. Call wall 539. Which one gets touched first? 👇
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$COHR is red 7.12% — and $2.5M of options premium got bought. Price and flow pointing opposite ways is the part worth looking at. One of them is early.
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$301k OF PUTS HIT PBR TODAY The biggest options bets on the tape: CALLS BOUGHT (bullish bets) - ALAB, SPCX, MSTR PUTS BOUGHT (bearish bets) - PBR Size is conviction. It is not intent.
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$QQQ 695.02 — 0.11% above its zero-gamma flip at 694.29. Above it dealers damp moves. Cushion is 0.18x today's expected move. Net dealer gamma: +$563M
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