NFL & CFB projections, draft analytics, and Rev Share/NIL modeling for @TheAthletic. The game isn't played on a spreadsheet — but it helps to have one. 📊

Joined July 2011
Been a while since I’ve seen the ball on the turf for that long in an NFL game. That was crazy.
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572
The Seahawks have Mahomes running for his life. This defense, man. Just special.
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744
Lions over the Packers is a bigger deal for the NFC North than you think. I had Detroit projected more favorably than the Packers to begin the day — now the Lions are 73% to make the playoffs, Packers 41%. Updated playoff odds are live in the Athletic simulator:
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874
Gibbs giving himself a high ankle sprain to preserve a win.
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1,073
Cardinals should have just sneaked it — snuck it? — again!
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Giants and JJ McCarthy just took care of business in Houston — 27-21 in OT to move to 4-2-1 and stay alone atop the NFC East. That win bumped their playoff odds to 51%. Full playoff picture with The Athletic’s Playoff Simulator.
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717
Which Week 7 game are you most confident in? My model has a few clear disagreements with the market, including one total I think is too high and a late window game that looks closer than the line. Full breakdown is in the new War Room episode:
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1,423
A wild Saturday just reshuffled the College Football Playoff picture. Texas kept their hopes alive with the win over Ole Miss. Alabama survived. BYU, Tennessee, and USC all took hits. Updated projections are live at The Athletic:
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1,121
My daughter just asked me if I work with @JasonKelce after seeing him on the broadcast. Apparently she has seen us work together.
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2,389
Texas kept their hopes alive with the win over Ole Miss. USC’s loss to Wisconsin is a major setback. Here’s how the College Football Playoff odds are moving:
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105,650
I think Arch made up his mind where he was going with that ball before the snap. The safety read him and then he made a horrible throw…woof.
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1,340
Luke Fickell elected to not take the points and scored a touchdown instead.
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622
Cam Coleman is too good to not catch that.
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7,275
How much did BYU’s and Tennessee’s losses just hurt their CFP odds? Alabama survived against Texas A&M. Live projections are updating throughout the night:
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