Andreas Asprou

I've noticed that a lot of people tend to assume that capabilities of consumer-grade AI models (like GPT-5) are the same as the true frontier of AI capabilities. This is a mistake. For example, OpenAI's unreleased model that won gold on the IMO in July is clearly better than even the best publicly available model today (GPT-5 Pro), which itself is much better than GPT-5 Thinking. But please realize that even this insanely capable unreleased model was just a side quest by three OpenAI researchers who put it together in ~2 months. For a better read of the true capabilities of OpenAI's models in July (4 months ago, for those counting), consider the unreleased model that placed second in the Atcoder competition. OpenAI felt sufficiently confident to enter this model into the competition against the world's top coders, despite the fact that the competition ran uninterrupted for 10 hours. (This is where you check the METR chart.) And the model did run for 10 hours completely autonomously, without any human input, iterating better and better solutions to the Atcoder problem. It placed second in the competition; only one insanely cracked human beat it. The next leap in professional-grade AI models is models that are capable of making small novel scientific discoveries. I trust that we'll be hearing from OpenAI (and probably others) on that front fairly soon.