Fourth Turning - who’s NGMI?
Joined August 2011
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Jim retweeted
Fun story. In about 2010/2011, Soros (yes, that one) did a bunch of work and back-testing and came to the conclusion that they would participate in every ECM transaction on the street (globally). They came to all the big IBs and said that they would take 1% of every transaction we led. After 18 months, they realised that they were getting 1% of 100% of all the 'dogs' and 0.75% (or less) of all of the good deals. There was always an excuse from the syndicate desks as to why they could not get their 'quota' on the hot ones - "management were heavily involved in allocation"; "management really hacked back the hedge funds. sorry" were the usual excuse. That allocation delta was enough to make the strategy a loss-maker. They quietly dropped the idea after about 18 months. Now just imagine employing a similar strategy as a retail investor.... @BenBrey $ANT #foiegrasgeese
Jim retweeted
Most career advice comes from an economy that no longer exists. So what still works? What should people DO?
These are the questions behind my new show, Best of Luck! Every week, I sit down with people who have built careers that have gone sideways, forwards, backwards, and forwards again. Each guest tells their story, swaps career advice, interviews for a job (!), and together, we try to understand the economy we're actually living AND working in.
Jim retweeted
NEW: We visited PS 307, the failing public school that Nikole Hannah-Jones sent her daughter to.
The teachers make an average of over $100,000 a year. The school spends $52,000 per student each year. The student/teacher ratio is 9 to 1.
We went to another school just down the street that spends less than half of what PS 307 does—yet the academic outcomes are significantly better.
Underfunding and racism aren't causing schools to fail. @DanielDiMartino explains what is:
75 Wall Street.
Suddenly, papers floating in the air outside the north facing window. What? Why? Did the Yankees clinch? Is there a ticker tape parade this morning?
Didn’t hear anything on the first impact.
Ran to the west facing trading floor to find out what was happening.
OMG!
A plane once hit the Empire State Building. Got on Bloomberg to search for news.
Heard the second impact from the far side of the building and knew the U.S. was under attack.
Gathered the team and told them to go home, but not to go to obvious targets like Grand Central.
Walked down the fire stairs instead of taking the elevator, just in case.
Reaching the fourth floor, the building shook like an earthquake. The first tower was down. Getting out of the fire stairs to look outside - it was pitch black in the dust cloud. People on the street covered in white dust like abominable snowmen.
Down to the lobby, waiting for the dust to settle. Then, outside to make a break for the Brooklyn Bridge.
Reaching the top of the entrance ramp, looking at City Hall and the remaining tower - Boom! Down it went. A second dust cloud roared across the space at 60mph. The wind was blowing from the northwest. Was it possible to make the turn and get far enough over the bridge to avoid the dust cloud? Instantaneous calculation - no way. Turned and ran down the ramp to hide under the arches of the bridge, using a Snapple soaked shirt as a mask.
25 years - never forget.
“All lies and jests, still a man hears what he wants to hear and disregards the rest.”
Seems apropos
open.spotify.com/track/76TZC…
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Jim retweeted
Clear now? The National Debt is the USA’s primary asset.
Jefferson Questions Hamilton’s Financial Plan - John Adams youtube.com/shorts/hs6eknzCJ… via @YouTube
Jim retweeted
“The trade imbalances that have come to characterize the global economy are fundamentally untenable.” Read @michaelxpettis on which countries will bear the brunt of the coming economic reckoning.
foreignaffairs.com/united-st…
A long read and well worth your time!
On a one-off basis, a recent explainer.
Originally published July 7th, 2026.
See important disclosures & disclaimers.
[email protected]
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Jim retweeted
1/2: Target date 'math' would dictate that the 🐿️ should have a 32% allocation to fixed income (lower if you are younger - am am 55) in his retirement account. Where are you (please answer poll in 2/2)
Jim retweeted
Tomorrow night the underwriters will give the official stamp on the SpaceX deal.
John Law would have understood every line of the term sheet, admired the retail allocation, envied the index plumbing, & asked only the one question he failed to answer in time:
What happens to a System when it stops growing?
He found out in eleven months.
We trade Friday.
@SquirrelMacro
capitalmisallocation.com/p/t…
Jim retweeted
Governments Are Selling Bonds at Record Pace as Spending Soars
Governments are borrowing from syndicated bond markets at a record clip as public spending surges.
Sovereign issuers have sold $504 billion of debt so far this year, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. That’s more than in the first half of 2020, when nations were paying to support their economies during Covid-19 lockdowns.
Budget deficits have been climbing since the global financial crisis. They spiked during the pandemic, when interest rates were slashed to record lows, and are widening again as governments boost defense spending and try to protect households from price shocks driven by the Iran war. Aging populations and rising interest rates are adding to the pressure. (Bloomberg)
Jim retweeted
"What I've noticed in looking at bubble regimes is strategies that work most of the time don't work as well in bubble regimes, except for one."
"Your alpha is probably less than it has been because your sample set that you've used to train your alpha, train your mind doesn't include very many bubble regimes."
Andy Constan on how active investors can adjust in a bubble regime.
An old Wall Street adage is , “When the ducks are quacking feed them.”
What happens to the ducks when they are overfed?
Free for all 1 check it out 👇blindsquirrelmacro.com/p/the…
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Emails show former PURA chair Marissa Gillett had a hand in proposing legislation that could have affected a lawsuit against her. insideinvestigator.org/forme…
