Pretty much. As of the past few weeks, debt markets have almost entirely shut off access to money for any company that doesn’t have substantial revenue independent of AI data centers. SpaceX closed $40B of debt for GPUs, but we’re investment grade and have Starlink & launch revenue. That means the 200+ neoclouds are going to see guppy-level death and consolidation. Some will make it through, but not many.

Elon: The payback on GPUs is 6 months Also Elon:

Founder: The round is closed. The hard part is over Me: The hard part hasn't started lol Wait until you're 5 years in Your competitor just raised 10x more than you And you're two payrolls from death Smiling at the all-hands like everything's fine That's the job bro

Dario Amodei was so worried about Y2K that his high school teacher still remembers it decades later. He’s been a doomer for much longer than I thought!

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There are going to be trillions of dollars of startups started out of Dogpatch Avalon.

Did not expect to be the top app on iOS for India at the peak of sale season.

Oolka will exceed 2 trillion monthly input token consumption this month. We see this getting north of 50 trillion monthly runrate by 2027. Don’t write off India AI story yet.

The smartest Indians continue to come to build in the US for the simple reason that the economic incentives are far far better. Perplexity ($20B), Skild ($14B+), Baseten ($13B), Together ($8B), Glean ($8B), Modal ($5B), Rubrik ($25B), Harness ($5B), Blacksmith, Parallel, Greptile, CodeRabbit, Composio, Distyl ($2B), Resolve, Luma, Cartesia, Wispr, dMatrix, Arize and many more - all started by at least one Indian-born founder. The US is a far easier to raise capital in with far less dilution. Most Indian companies are switching where they're domiciled to get access to the US capital markets. Every single Indian venture firm is trying very hard to invest in the US or risk not participating in the AI race (ironically, the management fees of venture firms are so high in India relatively that this is the one group that net of carry actually has incentive to be in India because they take home well north of a living wage whether or not funds perform do) While Zomato ($35B now, $8B at IPO) might be the biggest outcome in Indian venture, Cursor ($60B), Reflection (potentially $20B+), World Labs ($8B), OpenRouter ($8B), HuggingFace ($12B) and of course the $1T+ big labs quickly make those outcomes seem small and happen on a much smaller time scale, with much higher IRR. Engineers at these startups regularly get paid $1M/yr, and make $10M+ on exit. Even in BigTech, it is trivial to pull up levels fyi and see that if you're L6/L7+ with ~10 years of experience, you're making $1M/yr there too. And of course, we all know the slew of Indian CEOs of companies here, not to mention a huge bench of lesser known executives across the board in public and private companies. I say all this because every time there is a slight immigration hiccup in the US, I hear the online pleas to "build in India", I struggle to understand why most engineers, academics or founders would do that net of desire to be close to family, failure to obtain visa and devout patriotism. This is not a superiority thing or a US v India thing. The economic incentives at least for technologists to being in the US outweigh India by at least an order of magnitude.

Nvidia - making chips Google - making chips Meta - making chips Microsoft - making chips Amazon - making chips OpenAI - making chips Anthropic - making chips Alibaba - making chips Everyone’s pushing to vertically integrate chip design to reduce reliance on Nvidia. Customers are working to become competitors. Most aren’t immediate threats yet, but they’re all moving quick Only makes sense for Jensen to compete back

focus, focus and more focus