arnim holzer

For those that want to think about AI and economics a bit deeper, Yuval Noah Harari's Sapiens explained humanity's rise; Homo Deus questioned our future relevance. Judeo-Christian values place human dignity beyond productivity. If AI increasingly replaces human intelligence, will capitalism continue to serve humanity—or will humanity increasingly serve capital focused AI? The answer may not be about shedding capitalism but about how to make sure AI serves humanity.

Blinken on @cnbc is just wrong and still trying to defend his flawed record. Both Obama and Biden enabled Iran and anyone listening to Blinken has to know that they enabled Iran for over a decade. The war was not an original sin if anything it was a liberation from the tyranny of an unstable nuclear threat. Even North Korea does not pose the threat that Iran did. The idea that Iran is in a more powerful position is Isey. They have no economy. Their military is crippled and the straits are not deteriorating global trade meaningfully. The price of energy has not escalated to the levels that were threatened. Oil under $100 is not a death knell for the global economy.

How many arbitrators and therapists will the European, DP World Tour, and the PGA have to hire to get player relationships and psychology back in order? The rift caused by that $5 Billion LIV attack on the functional world of golf has got to be a hard pill to swallow for so many. This has to be on all these tours agendas now. Fans too may take some time to digest what it said about global golf and many of its respected athletes. Would be good for some of the LIV golfers to take a lead in communication.

Days like today in the market remind folks that one must be careful what you wish for and that elections have consequences. Actively managed strategies can respond while index based ones are more constrained. Concentration risk is just another form of leverage that masquerades as "market exposure". Professors Sharpe and Markowitz would be doing big "I told you so's" on days like today. #assetallocation, #Hedgedequity, #Betamanagementworks

Kudos @JoeSquawk @andrewrsorkin @cnbcfor not allowing a conflation of gerrymandering issues with the alleged election interference in Alaska. The dem house member couldn't even mention actual details of alleged fraud on the Republican side just made accusations. But when pressed on NYT findings, she just relies on assertion Peltola admin says nothing there. Gentlemen that was real journalism. She had her say on economic concerns but had to squeal when pressed on the fraud issues.

I think the NFL has a ton on their plate but I think there are 32 NFL Running Back rooms that have high interest in that Skattebo unnecessary roughness penalty being clarified. When you don't let a RB lower his head and pads around the line of scrimmage you might as well take of their pads and helmet. @NFL That rule needs clarification.

Completely agree with @drewbrees The helmet contact penalty on Skattebo really violates the meaning and purpose of that rule. For a running back coming through the hole and into an approaching linebacker, I don’t know what else Skattebo could’ve done that wouldn’t have exposed him to a more violent hit.

We are so lucky to just be down one nothing. But this could work to the Yankees favor because Tampa Bay did not put them away early.

Are you serious Giants! Why are we playing prevent D when our straight up defense is pressured the quarterback all day!

Re: the uproar around AI of late, the concerns are real, but I think some of the reaction is too binary and too focused on dire outcomes. We know how to build independent stress-testing, random audits and continuous monitoring around other safety-critical technologies, and AI should be no different. The more likely path is periodic failures, regulation and headline shocks that create volatility—not an inevitable existential outcome. As with cyber threats, these are serious but largely solvable engineering and governance problems. Markets may be overpricing the extremes while underappreciating the opportunities created by volatility along the way. Existential-threat language plays on fear and people’s tendency to panic, but fear is rarely a sound strategy. The risks posed by AI are real, but like other powerful technologies—including nuclear—we can build systems to manage them.

Let us not forget 9/11. On this day 25 years ago was not able to go into the city for a downtown meeting because of a scheduled minor surgery for my son while in the waiting room. My wife and I saw the whole conflagration. Our firm lost wonderful people. Our town lost wonderful people a terrible ideology, that’s still exist. Today broke through and brought the city to its knees. We cannot forget the dangers of destructive ideologies. We cannot get complacent and lose understanding of the very real risks we still face.

Responding to a comment by @carlquintanilla @CNBC To be clear on the Norwegian SWF, Important clarification: this is not simply a decision to sell U.S. Treasuries, nor has the proposed reallocation occurred yet. Norges Bank Investment Management is proposing to reduce govt bonds broadly from 70% to 50% of its fixed-income benchmark, while increasing exposure to other investment-grade bonds. U.S. Treasuries would see the largest reduction, but much of that would be reallocated to U.S. mortgage and government-related securities. Overall U.S. dollar exposure would barely change. That was lost in your comment. This looks much more like a portfolio-construction decision around diversification, liquidity and risk premia than a wholesale loss of confidence in U.S. assets.

Watching these women at the U.S. Open, I can’t help but miss Ash Barty’s big dynamic, powerful athletic game. She held such a great record against many of today’s stars that I can’t help, but think she would been a force at this open as well. It’s sad to me that not enough of the commentators mention this to current viewers. I’m sure she’s happy in her life now, but she was very good, holding the number one ranking for well over two years. @AdamZagoria

Big win for Shelton. I know Alcaraz has had his number before but this Ben Shelton doesn’t look anything like prior versions. He is so determined so mamba like. His fitness level is absolutely at a championship level.

Folks wondering why European stocks struggling today. Europe faces a difficult asymmetry: it captures less of the AI-driven growth supporting U.S. equities while bearing more of the Russia-Ukraine risk through energy, agriculture, defense spending and geopolitics. That combination can constrain valuations even when European earnings and fundamentals remain solid. For International diversification proponents that's a challenge. @CliffordAsness @jimcramer @timseymour

Just booked a room for a conference in a Chicago hotel and became a Chicago and Illinois tax payer to the tune of 17.4% over the 2 night bill! @jimiuorio Now explain why Chicago needs more tax revenue? Can someone explain to me what services the City and State are rendering for that sticker shock? But even NYC and Boston are under 15%. Add in city destination and resort fees (at inner city hotels?) and its over 30% of the bill! This crazy.

Interesting messaging from the markets that there is perceived to be directionally more worry on long treasuries than equity volatility here since the turn of the quarter. The other message here is that diversification becomes much more nuanced as bond volatility rises. It's not just a correlation concern. With Jackson Hole in focus, it's time for policymakers to address frameworks not just the next few months policy. We don't need a bandaid, we need a treatment plan. @jimiuorio

The macro folks aren't focusing on...The Russia-Ukraine war is heating up again, yet markets seem remarkably sanguine. The bigger issue may be Europe: higher defense spending, Ukraine support and energy security increasingly look structural. And watch the commodity signals. Escalation around Black Sea infrastructure can put a risk premium into European natural gas while disrupted Russian/Ukrainian exports are already pushing grain prices higher. This doesn't require predicting a wider war. It means recognizing a potentially different fiscal, security and commodity regime. Watch rates, sovereign spreads, currencies, Nat gas and agriculture—not just equities. The VIX may have been dropping but volatility seems only a news/datapoint away.