#Financial Show Host Trader/Analyst #Poker player, #ClassicalLiberal #CycleAnalysis #Charting #Stocks #Futures #Markets #Trading #Investing 🇺🇸🇮🇱✡️
Florida, USA
Joined February 2009
- Tweets34.8K
- Following2.5K
- Followers17.9K
- Likes12.2K
Steve Miller retweeted
The math says the Fed is not fighting inflation hard enough. The open question is whether it has the stomach to go where the math points, or whether it stops early again.
Read this 👇
The Fed funds rate has averaged about five and a half percent since 1954. Even excluding the Volcker peak, the average is near five. If the current rate sits in the four to four and a half range, it is below the historical norm, not above it.
The real rate is the number that matters. Subtract inflation and you are looking at roughly zero to one percent positive. That is not restrictive. That is neutral at best.
Volcker did not break inflation with a nominal rate near five. He took it to twenty percent while inflation ran ten to fourteen. Real rates of six to ten percent positive. That is what forced deleveraging.
A restrictive stance today points to a funds rate in the six to seven percent range. Some argue higher, given how much debt the system carries. The same rate bites harder on leveraged borrowers than it did in past cycles.
The catch: the Fed has never sustained that level without breaking something. Every time real rates went that positive, you got a recession or a financial crisis. 1980. 1981. 2001. 2008. The pattern is the Fed gets there, panics, and cuts before inflation is fully dead.
#Fed #Inflation #Rates #Markets
~ Slim
The math says the Fed is not fighting inflation hard enough. The open question is whether it has the stomach to go where the math points, or whether it stops early again.
Read this 👇
The Fed funds rate has averaged about five and a half percent since 1954. Even excluding the Volcker peak, the average is near five. If the current rate sits in the four to four and a half range, it is below the historical norm, not above it.
The real rate is the number that matters. Subtract inflation and you are looking at roughly zero to one percent positive. That is not restrictive. That is neutral at best.
Volcker did not break inflation with a nominal rate near five. He took it to twenty percent while inflation ran ten to fourteen. Real rates of six to ten percent positive. That is what forced deleveraging.
A restrictive stance today points to a funds rate in the six to seven percent range. Some argue higher, given how much debt the system carries. The same rate bites harder on leveraged borrowers than it did in past cycles.
The catch: the Fed has never sustained that level without breaking something. Every time real rates went that positive, you got a recession or a financial crisis. 1980. 1981. 2001. 2008. The pattern is the Fed gets there, panics, and cuts before inflation is fully dead.
#Fed #Inflation #Rates #Markets
~ Slim
Today is “Fed day”
Hawkish pause base case for today’s FOMC
Fed widely expected to hold the funds rate at 3.75–4.00% after September’s 25 bp hike (first in three years). CME FedWatch ~90%+ on a hold; only a small chance of another hike today. Markets instead price a high probability (~75–85%) of a hike in December.
Why “hawkish pause”
• Rate stays put, but messaging keeps the door open for more tightening.
• Persistent inflation (Sept CPI ~3.7% y/y), energy pressures from the Middle East/Iran situation, and a still-resilient economy support further firming.
• Officials have signaled patience post-September and a desire for more data; proximity of the Nov 3 midterms reinforces waiting. Possible hawkish dissents (e.g., Logan or Hammack) would reinforce the tone.
• Chair Warsh generally avoids strong forward guidance, so the 2:30 p.m. ET press conference is the key: does he frame the pause as policy still not restrictive enough, inflation too high, or further adjustment still appropriate?
No new dots today, statement wording and Warsh’s tone will drive the December path.
#Fed #FOMC #Warsh
There are some terms I just can't stop using:
Man
Woman
Gulf of Mexico
Lake Ontario
Sear's Tower
And now "Artificial Intelligence - AI"
Steve Miller retweeted
The worst years of trading of my life taught me more than the best ones. I'd rather you learn it sooner and cheaper.
"A Trader's Ride"
~The life you build
~The trader you become
Slim's new book coming soon
Get notified: Free signup
askslim.com/free-account/
The worst years of trading of my life taught me more than the best ones. I'd rather you learn it sooner and cheaper.
"A Trader's Ride"
~The life you build
~The trader you become
Slim's new book coming soon
Get notified: Free signup
askslim.com/free-account/
Steve Miller retweeted
I went a long way down before I understood what was driving me. You may not have to.
"A Trader's Ride"
~The life you build
~The trader you become
Slim's new book
Coming soon
I went a long way down before I understood what was driving me. You may not have to.
"A Trader's Ride"
~The life you build
~The trader you become
Slim's new book
Coming soon
Steve Miller retweeted
Thirty days of disciplined trading, gone in one position. Nobody sits down and plans that. So why does it keep happening?
Learn about that in…
"A Trader's Ride"
~The life you build
~The trader you become
Slim's new book
Coming soon
Thirty days of disciplined trading, gone in one position. Nobody sits down and plans that. So why does it keep happening?
Learn about that in…
"A Trader's Ride"
~The life you build
~The trader you become
Slim's new book
Coming soon
Steve Miller retweeted
Slim's Cycle Analysis Workshop up to $500 Off Plus Two Exclusive Bonuses Included
youtu.be/7EFSUksrXQ8
Slim's Cycle Analysis Workshop up to $500 Off Plus Two Exclusive Bonuses Included
youtu.be/7EFSUksrXQ8
askSlim Market Week Brief Analysis of Financial Markets
Slim takes a deep look:
Semiconductor stocks
Stock market indexes
$SPX $NDX and more
Watch here👇
youtu.be/lPsRlQwSfCQ