$BTC recap 8 trades, 8 wins ✅ Pretty good month so far, despite the chop. Almost every move caught on the 4 hourly. All publicly called, with conviction and elaborated with extensive updates. (couldn't fit every tweet in one picture so first two are missing).

$btc shorts The bounce is being faded, final stage: one more bounce, then take the lows. I have set my limits at 79.2k Alright! Beautiful developments in the bitcoin market, cancelling the bounce neatly as longs are being compromised. Great, next, we transition into the next stage before we get new lows and receive the pay-out which is the finalization stage of this short. It's always a bit nerve-wrecking to sit through that final stage leaving unrealized PnL open until unravelling finally. But we borrow confidence from our analysis, and our conviction, which, both are high. Yes "everyone is calling for lower". But I explained before how "everyone calling for lower" and there being room for price to go lower, are two different aspects. We must investigate if "everyone calling for lower", actually matches everyone going big on shorts or abandoning longs, and if that sentiment is even a discrepancy compared to the last weeks. What they say is not what they do. And sometimes, it's a natural human response to comment cynically on your own position, e.g. I took a long but it's going to go lower, etc. Here, we clearly, do not see absorption of shorts, do not see long liquidations (yet), and instead see spot leading price down whilst funding reveals sustained longs aggression. More detailed footprint analysis reveals the same. Which, explains why this bounce has been retracing. So clearly, not all types of sentiments are the same and reading it properly is closer to a poker game of reading hints, rather than a straightforward game of reading words. Those are my two cents, and they certainly back up as to why price is following my call, despite the timeline "being bearish". Enjoy, as we sit through the final stages, sit through the final local bounces, before the lows are taken ultimately imo. One small adjustment: if CME takes the equivalent lows, that also counts so be on the lookout for that to prioritize that as a TP position. I thank you for listening, I hope you learn something every day, every week, as we make fresh calls and trade the market every day, and every week. No repetitiveness or camping on one high timeframe position over and over. Htf gains are background gains.

$btc "the timeline is bearish this, the timeline is bearish that". Yes it is, but price can still go down. :) Sentiment affecting price is measured through convex long term-short term discrepancy, detectably through for example post frequency intensity and context and verified through orders, not through "everyone wants lower". Timing always matters. I will see you sub 79.2k.

I feel for the people who follow someone to see them lose. Since I lost 2 trades the last 10 trades, you essentially had to see me win 8 times to lose 2 times so you can celebrate your comment. How do you live your life im genuinely curious

$btc Fast-forward 12 hrs: are you fading the bounce?

$btc Fade the bounce: I added more shorts here btw to new lows. As plan below is clearly happening. Weakness spotted as well and now executing on the plan below, adding on top of the plenty of short exposure already built, now starting to ad another series of asks, one deployed here. Aiming for new lows where i aim to take more payouts on all these positions built, on the road to 75k.

$btc Current mindset: fade this bounce As hinted an hour ago, I am no longer interested in longing, as it has been invalidated. As part of its invalidation, it's structural low is weak and is expected to be taken out. Hence I expect new lows next. Simply due to the structural weakness exposed at 80.5k level, $eth mmd not holding, 75k overall magnet expectations, and continued momentum during the weekend. So as a natural result of the long plan invalidation, it's logical to expect new lows instead and consider this as just a bounce. Hence the mindset: short on the bounce. No fresh short positions for me yet btw aside from the large exposure I shared last month at 86k, I'll share plan of execution on that in the coming trading sessions. But I'm just hinting to new lows first imo as part of my plan and I wanted to share my mindset of what I think of this bounce first.

$btc longs - hourly timeframe. Exited longs here at 80.5k for a loss. No longer interested in longing the next days. Still had some deeper excursion Yesterday despite setting lows once already. We also have the $eth mmd invalidated. That is as drawn out and discussed Yesterday, clearly beyond our plan of the trade working out, beyond 80k and beyond what could make this long work imo. With the fact we're a weekend and have no intent of institutions to turn this around and where bounces are best news, it's not going to go any further. So now that we have a bounce, this imo is a great time to get out for a relatively small loss. We're not here to redraw lines or move goalposts. Sometimes a trade idea is just invalidated and we're wrong. It's not necessarily pleasant, but abandoning a plan is sometimes what it takes to form a new. It's good to recognize that it's not always the financial loss itself that hurts, but letting go of the plan itself and fact the bounce might not go as high and a long is no longer worth it. But an abandoned plan, leads to the next. So there is never any emotional attachment to any direction as a trader, especially on the lower timeframes. So speaking of the plan clearly not working anymore imo, with price acting more weak than expected, I now start to think we go lower sooner instead, so I'm aiming to start shorting this bounce soon, do not be surprised if I do. Even if the trade goes higher locally and the bounce intensifies, I'm just going to exit the trade and take the loss, and start shorting. Might be somewhat of as a flip indeed. But we still want 75k and this long was another countertrend play. Regardless of 75k, first things first: this post is about a countertrend long and it imo not working out so I am taking the loss and sharing it.

$btc longs - hourly timeframes Weekend lows set✅ Alright, that's step one of what I drew out, of seeing local fresh lows during the weekend, now made official on this Saturday. Ideally, we want a local move up, some further ranging and then the weekend lows to be taken after the weekend, next. Technically, any bounce here is scalp shortable towards new lows. I am already fairly short exposed from above per 75k is coming plan. So I'm more focused on just monitoring my predictions here, and holding local longs for a bigger bounce next week imo. So far so good.

$btc longs - hourly timeframes Sharing my expectations on our long plan versus invalidation scenario. While I can't share exact SL's, sharing this should help you understand on when I stay in for the gain and when I get out. 80k is the bias level, where I expect price to hold above until at least mid next week. Given the quality of the low, a weekend lows sweep + clearance next week is possible. That's fine, the trade idea remains simple where as long as the mmd holds and something along the lines of the projected timeframe emerges, the trade is/remains valid. On the low chance there is no follow-up and low reclaim, but a breakdown, that is invalidation scenario which means to exit longs, and expect 75k sooner. Not terrible, but less ideal if it costs a loss. I do expect this long to work out however, hence why I am long. That is my thought process and that is my gameplan for the next 5 days.

$btc - hourly timeframes. Price went to 80.8k, that's the lowest I see it go. I doubled up longs here. Yesterday, started longs with relatively limited conviction, but with an idea of higher. Stated it as higher risk, and therefore lower leverage should be used given limited confluences. It's not uncommon we sink slightly deeper first whenever I flag a position as high risk for a longer journey. But to anyone who has been following, that typically means after that one stage deeper locally, a bigger move up afterwards follows due to the local risk of early, high leverage longs, being eliminated. We do see that now, and also - very conveniently - have $eth mmd magically appear and Friday closing on a dump. To my back testers, that does dramatically increase the changes of at least a bounce back early next week or even the weekend. I could be wrong, and risk is a bit higher, but there's still no strong reason to think price will not reverse here and the long idea still holds up largely. So I continue to hold and with the new confluence(s), such as $eth mmd, that is a real reason to add to the position, increasing risk to full size. That's exactly what I have done. If we properly lose 80k, I am out of the trade. Good luck, enjoy and do not try this at home unless experienced.

$btc - hourly timeframes Back at 81.6k. Longed again right here, buy low, sell high, rinse repeat. Can we get three wins in a row? Alright, last time we reached 84k as our big target, TP'd some longs and price pulled back well after that. With this pullback, I am getting interested in longs again as announced a few hours ago. For context if you're new, that's not our first long, not our second, but our third from this region. Yes, I expect 75k but I expressed clearly, loudly and extensively, how that likely takes weeks, and won't be tomorrow. Within weeks, a lot of price action can happen in between, including another upswing. There is no rush for 75k either. We are holding big shorts from 86k and funding is paying us one step at a time. With new poor highs shaping up at 84k, and with a nice pullback achieved of our level, now into a clean structurally higher low with good absorption, Friday and enough liquidity built up to hold at the very least until the middle of next week imo, I think there is more than enough room for another long from here. Is it a bit riskier than usual? Certainly, and yes, I am also still holding prior exposure. Hence, going a bit lower size here also given the counter tend nature. That doesn't mean I am not confident. I am, I'm just managing size through existing exposure. If this is a win, a gain is a gain and with other longs combined, it will be sweet. I just don't want to risk losing too much if this fails whilst our target has been 75k all along. I don't think it's the target just yet, let me be clear. Hence, enough doomsday prepping. We have enough liquidity for a good long and push up. I bet some money on it, enjoy the journey through my live trading journal. Let's see if this ends up in the third win in a row again.

$btc We're at 81.7k now. Price is holding up well and large money is buying. I am starting to get interested in another long for a move up, before the inevitable breakdown.

The hardest part about 84k+ first was accepting it. The same is true for 75k next, to accept it before it happens or the market will force you to. We're now getting closer but acceptance is still not broad based on which way aggresion goes. Our shorts are still a minority

$btc Daily reminder of our master plan and its progress, to keep you on track of the original author and idea spreader. And to keep your eyes open. Not that it matters who "shared it first", but just as a reference to base your sentiment reads. Notice how bulls are not as confident anymore as they were last post, and how that is slowly changing over time as flip flopping is the natural process when seeing, but not fully believing something is taking place. All power to anyone participating. We simply continue to track our master plan.

My best advice: It's not about the tools you use, but the understanding of the markets you have and how you build your dashboard around that. Once you know how markets work what's important and what's not, then it's just arts class basics to construct a good dashboard.

$btc ➡️84k ✅ ➡️75k ⏳ Alright so now that 84k+ happened, we now prepare for the next milestone and just hold the big 86k shorts as they print our way to 75k. We are seeing fierce rejection from 84k so far, which is good. Certainly not random, you know what number is next indeed. We closed lots of longs at our 84k big target too, and now we can enjoy the big shorts printing without any further counter tend long exposure. It may take some time, I expect a week or perhaps a few weeks. But I remind you how that is an expectation. If it happens sooner, there is no complaining. I would not close any further short exposure before hitting the level. This is the shot for the home run. We also don't need much further exposure. Remember what I said how expecting 75k is a benefit in itself since it improves big size long opportunity. A simple roadmap, a somewhat of a bold roadmap, but one that has not been denied in any way, not through price action, not through sentiment.

$btc So now that my target has been hit... I say... After 84k+ comes what? After 84k+ comes what? Say it after me... We are holding 2 swing shorts still, and one big 86k short. Downfall: engage.

Records speak much, much louder than words.

$btc longs Long I up 10RR and then some Long II up 8 RR and then some. My job for the week, is done. Have a great night, everyone.