Président de CafeIA. #AI 7 startups, 4 exits et 7 livres Sur Linkedin désormais https://xitter.cf/t.co/uKCwmzsot4

Paris, Ile-de-France
Joined June 2007
Gilles Babinet retweeted
The ugly truth about France and some of the other European countries currently in turmoil - and which none of the politicians want to admit because it'd be political suicide - is that you can't solve the problem by going after immigrants (as the right asserts) or the rich (as the left asserts), but you could solve it by going after the old. One extraordinary statistic for you: people over 60 in France, a quarter of the population, own 60% of France's wealth, non-financial and financial (ofce.fr/pdf/revue/2025/3-192…). And here is another crazy statistic: that same quarter of the population, those above 60, receive nearly two-thirds of all social spending by the French government (previssima.fr/actualite/prot…) - which is famously among the highest in the world (France's government spending is an insane 57.3% of GDP). Last statistic: they make up about 40% of voters because they're a third of registered voters (insee.fr/fr/statistiques/266…), and they turn out far more than anyone else (franceinfo.fr/elections/sond…). Put our 3 statistics together and there's almost a bit of an apartheid situation here: the old own most of the country's wealth, collect most of the social spending and have the political power to keep it that way. Which makes them a de-facto rentier class, living off assets and transfers paid for by younger generations. And, of course, at the risk of stating a truism, the future is built by the young. Yet France keeps effectively taking money away from them to give it to those whose working lives are already behind them - and need the money far less since they already own the country's wealth. What about inheritance, I hear you ask? That's the funniest/saddest aspect: given that life expectancy has kept rising, the French now inherit a home at 54 on average. The most common case is someone in their 80s leaving it to heirs in their 50s, in effect the very old transferring wealth to the about-to-be old (insee.fr/fr/statistiques/fic…). You can add this to our earlier apartheid statement: on top of all the rest, even when the old finally let go of their wealth, it stays within their own "camp". That's my personal situation, incidentally: I'm 42, my father is 71 and he is starting to look at ways to pass things on to me and my siblings, when our professional lives are already well settled, so it'll arrive when it changes things the least, which is pretty much the French system in a nutshell. Now, I get that there'd be some unfairness in going after them: they paid into the system their entire working lives, playing by the rules of a social contract that told them if they paid up they'd collect at the end. Changing the rules now means breaking that promise, which is admittedly unfair. But there's no magic wealth tree in any society: you can only take it where it is. That's the way most major societal transformations end up happening. They're often triggered by a catastrophic event (the so-called "four horsemen": mass-mobilisation war, revolution, state collapse, plague) BUT what really drives change is a transfer: wealth gets pried from the privileged class who've been sitting on it and handed to those who'll build what comes next. So, in theory and in an ideal world, you can do without the catastrophic event and directly proceed with the transfer... The fact that in France, and elsewhere in Europe, it's the youth protesting is probably no coincidence - even though they don't frame it as a generational fight. And even though, cruel irony, the left politicians many of them march behind promise to bring the retirement age back to 60 (lcp.fr/actualites/legislativ…), which would make the situation even worse. Let's say they understand intuitively that the system is stacked against them, even if they haven't yet figured out how. And politicians are obviously doing what politicians do, meaning pandering to the people who actually vote, while pointing the young towards easier - and politically convenient - scapegoats. To be clear I'm not saying it's the only problem in France, VERY far from it. I'm also not saying that all old people in France live a lavish lifestyle at the expense of younger generations: there are also plenty of very poor retirees who, if anything, would deserve more. What I am saying is that it's probably the biggest elephant in the room: everyone can see it, nobody dares mention it - no politician, from any side, wants to run on cutting grandma's pension - and it makes every other problem harder to fix.
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Gilles Babinet retweeted
The GRU hacked into Jared Kushner's iPhone. Dutch military intelligence (MIVD) then recruited a GRU spy who gave them access to the hacked phone. What MIVD discovered was that Kushner had access to two bank accounts --one Azerbaijani, the other Israeli --where Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman and Emirati ruler Mohammed bin Zayed deposited money. It sounds like a slightly far-fetched episode of "Slow Horses," but it's real. And it proves just how eye-poppingly corrupt this administration was and continues to be as its "special envoy" decides the fate of tens of millions in Europe in the Middle East. Simply incredible reporting by Matthew Cole, drawn from his new book on Kushner. vanityfair.com/story/jared-k…
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Retrouver le livre ici en acces libre: longterme.org/2026/10/sortie… Nb: Pas de lien direct avec les evenements récents mais explique certaines choses. Mais c’est pas en cassant que l’on résoudra ces problèmes, au contraire.
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Gilles Babinet retweeted
💣 اعتراف صادم من سام ألتمان: "توقعاتي كانت خاطئة تماماً.. رغم تطوير الذكاء الاصطناعي، لم يتغير العالم قيد أنملة، ونحن نواجه التزامات مالية بـ 100 تريليون دولار، ونواجه قضايا من كل اتجاه. بصراحة، قد نكون في ورطة حقيقية!" 📉🤯 ​الرجل الذي روّج طويلاً لفكرة أن "الذكاء الاصطناعي سيسرق كل الوظائف ويعيد تشكيل العالم بين عشية وضحاها" يرفع الراية البيضاء ويعترف بالحقيقة المرة: ​وهم التغيير السريع: "كنت أعتقد أن إطلاق GPT-4 سيقلب قطاع البرمجيات رأساً على عقب في لمح البصر.. لكن الواقع كان مختلفاً تماماً، لقد أخطأت في تقدير سرعة تغير المجتمع." ​القصور الذاتي للبشر (Inertia): استخف ألتمان بمدى "كسل" الاقتصاد والمجتمع البشري. مهما كان الذكاء الاصطناعي خارقاً، فالناس يستيقظون ويؤدون أعمالهم بالطريقة نفسها، ويشترون من الشركات القديمة ذاتها. المجتمع لا يتحرك بالسرعة والرشاقة التي يتخيلها مهندسو التقنية. ​تغيير السلوك البشري: "كنت أظن أننا إن صنعنا أداة مذهلة، سيقفز الجميع لاستخدامها فوراً".. لكن تبين أن تغيير العادات اليومية أو القواعد المؤسسية البالية أصعب بمئة مرة من بناء الذكاء الاصطناعي نفسه. ​التقنية سابقة لعصرها: التكنولوجيا هي الأقوى في تاريخ البشرية بلا منازع، لكن "العنصر البشري والنظم الاجتماعية" عاجزون عن مواكبة هذا التسارع. ​الخلاصة المرة: بناء نموذج خارق أسهل بكثير من محاولة إقناع البشر بتغيير طرق حياتهم القديمة! 💀 ​احفظ التغريدة بـ Bookmark 🔖 وشاركنا: هل تعتقد أن البشرية حقاً مقاومة للتغيير إلى هذا الحد، أم أن ثورة الذكاء الاصطناعي لم تضرب بقوة كافية بعد؟ 🧵👇
Readers added context they thought people might want to know
التغريدة تحرف تصريحات سام ألتمان وتضيف تفاصيل غير موجودة. قال ألتمان في مقابلته مع ديفيد سينرا إنه أخطأ في سرعة تبني الذكاء الاصطناعي بسبب inertia الاقتصاد واعتبر ذلك إيجابياً لانتقال أسلس، دون ذكر التزامات بـ100 تريليون دولار أو ورطة أو قضايا. davidsenra.com/episode/sam-al… calcalistech.com/ctechnews/arti… techspot.com/news/113607-we…
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96 points de PIB : la dette implicite des retraites estimée par l’Observatoire du Long Terme, dans un scénario d’absence de réforme. C’est le poids des déficits futurs : un doublement de la dette publique . À découvrir dans notre dernier livre: longterme.org/2026/10/sortie…
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Gilles Babinet retweeted
“Depuis plus d’une décennie, des puissances financières et médiatiques oeuvrent pour faire basculer la France dans un régime illibéral, convaincre les Français de donner le pouvoir à l’extrême droite” Gérard Davet et Fabrice Lhomme, grands reporters au journal Le Monde, publient "Le complot contre la France" (Flammarion). Pour en savoir plus, écoutez Le Grand entretien par Florence Paracuellos et @Ben_Duhamel ➡️ radiofrance.fr/franceinter/p…
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Gilles Babinet retweeted
Le 15 octobre sur longterme.org et en librairie découvrez notre nouveau livre. Bande annonce en 60 secondes ci-après.
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Gilles Babinet retweeted
Goldman Sachs' Jim Covello says the $8 Trillion AI boom is missing one thing: PROFIT "At some point, you got to make money We've gotten further away from that over the last couple years instead of closer to it" > The $8 Trillion Hill: - This is the steepest investment hill in history. To justify $7-8 trillion of spend, AI has to stop just "disrupting" old profits and create entirely new economies - which it hasn't done yet. > The One-Way Profit Loop: - In past cycles, suppliers won when their customers won. In AI, chipmakers are the only winners - at the direct expense of every company above them in the chain. > FOMO Is the Main Driver: - Hyperscalers keep raising capex while their stocks lag and free cash flow falls. Why? They fear a competitor "figuring it out" more than they fear losing billions today. > The "Great Disconnect": - Executives see a revolution. Line workers see messy data, wrong answers, and a technology that isn't ready for "blocking and tackling." > The Scale Trap: - AI is becoming a "defense" tax. Skip the $50M model and you're at a permanent disadvantage - but that doesn't mean the spend brings in a single dollar of new revenue. Daily takes from the quants and economists calling the AI market
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Gilles Babinet retweeted
(source @DGTresor à partir de chiffres OCDE/COR)
...qui est pourtant la mesure la plus évidente, la plus facile aussi à justifier car elle touche seulement les retraités les plus aisés...
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Gilles Babinet retweeted
BREAKING: OpenAI’s solution to Navier–Stokes does not match its Lean verification. The most important article to read today is not one of OpenAI’s 700 AI-generated math papers. It is this other paper, making a deep and worrying point: A Lean-verified proof does not automatically validate the proof written in natural language, nor does it mean that the formal statement captures the intended theorem. During translation, an AI can change an assumption, weaken a statement, or replace the argument entirely. It can hallucinate another theorem. Lean correctly verifies the result. But the proved result may no longer be what the paper claims. This is a general problem. Things get spicy when the authors examine OpenAI’s proposed Navier–Stokes solution. They identify at least two mismatches between the written intermediate results and their Lean counterparts: One estimate claims that four additional input derivatives suffice. The Lean version requires five: a weaker result. A pressure-flux estimate is obtained through a different bound, and proved through a different argument. It is not clear whether these mismatches invalidate the entire proof. But they raise an important issue. OpenAI is flooding us with claimed revolutionary breakthroughs. Yet nobody knows whether the proofs are correct or whether they prove what they claim to be proving. Epistemia at scale. * Paper in the first reply
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Breaking: Michael Burry says the AI boom is running on one giant loop and time is running out Here's his breakdown: 1. Burry shared a report from Wall Street lender Ares tracking $573B of AI financing from the last 12 months 2. All of it runs through just 8 companies: Meta, Oracle, Microsoft, Amazon, OpenAI, Anthropic, Broadcom and Nvidia 3. They lend to each other, guarantee each other's debt and buy from each other, so one company's loan is backed by another company's promise to keep spending 4. Every deal depends on one thing: AI spending never slowing down 5. If AI revenue disappoints for even one season, the guarantees could all get called at once, right when the companies backing them are at their weakest 6. Burry says it's the same circular financing that turned the 2000 telecom fiber boom into a bust Burry claims the stock market in the first stage of grief and the crash is soon
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Gilles Babinet retweeted
Pourquoi budget ou financement des retraites sont si difficiles à boucler, pourquoi les débats sont aussi conflictuels et comment avancer ? Réponse bientot en librairie et sur longterme.org Pour découvrir le livre en 50 secondes : youtu.be/nlb8PI5xQMU?si=lRwy…
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Gilles Babinet retweeted
Mistral' new model is good, compares to gpt 5.5 but cheaper to opérateur. Quasar (green) no more EU's best model
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Gilles Babinet retweeted
Meet Mistral Large 4, aka Le Chonk. • 1T parameters, natively multimodal. 49B active. It is the best open weights model from US or Europe on aggregated benchmarks. • State-of-the-art on critical workloads, including cyber defense, manufacturing and finance and it surpasses closed frontier models on visual grounding. • Forged in Europe end-to-end and is deployable from Europe via our own Mistral Cloud infrastructure. • Available to all via API today. Working with cybersecurity partners privately. Open weights release end of October.
🤖 Made with AI
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Gilles Babinet retweeted
The idea of an intelligence explosion caused by recursive self improvement has been around for a long time but until very recently it did not seem imminent. Now many leading researchers think it may happen quite soon. You can read our paper about it here: casp.ac/reports/intelligence…
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Gilles Babinet retweeted
The Netherlands is following China, France, and Russia in moving to break the global stranglehold of US tech dominance, it was revealed this week. The Dutch government was shocked into action after the US remotely disabled the computers of judges in the Hague who criticized Israel leader Benjamin Netanyahu. The sudden loss of ICC staff’s Outlook email accounts caused significant problems. The US reserves the right to unilaterally sanction anyone, anywhere in the world--all your Google accounts could disappear in an instant. Bye-bye, gmail. “The Dutch government is creating its own digital work environment based on the Dutch Linux distribution NixOS,” said Jasper Bakker of news website Tweakers. The spreading realization: smart countries protect their digital sovereignty. . HARDWARE, TOO China is trying to ditch both software and hardware. Beijing in 2019 ordered government offices to switch away from foreign PCs, and fortunately has a great many locally produced computers to fill the gap. China’s Ministry of State Security this summer told some state-linked organizations to quickly remove a customized version of Windows 10 from their machines, Bloomberg reported in August. Other organizations are set to “clean” their systems of the program by February of 2027. Russia, France, Germany, Switzerland, Denmark, Italy and Austria are also replacing Microsoft programs with alternatives in various government areas, particularly in military sectors. In Hong Kong, a number of government departments have already replaced Microsoft Office products with alternatives. . THE PROBLEM IS THE PUBLIC But security specialists worldwide note that large-scale switching will be a challenge. While multiple countries are clearing their governmental systems of dominant US programs, virtually all computers owned by members of the public are filled with it—and few consumers will take the trouble to switch away from Microsoft Office, let alone from the Windows operating system. Even in China, Microsoft is dominant at consumer level. The Windows program accounted for 87.64% of desktop web traffic in China as recently as July 2026, StatCounter reported. Fortunately, alternative operating systems like Huawei’s HarmonyOS work well, and are growing in popularity. Russia has enforced a total ban on Western software for government and military, mandating the use of domestic Astra Linux. . ALTERNATIVES As for Europe, the best hope is the rise of easy-install alternatives. These do exist. - France, like the Netherlands, is opting for changing the operating systems, transitioning 2.5 million civil servants to Linux. They have also been told to ditch MS Teams and use Visio, a local alternative. - Individual German states are also opting for Linux, and are using Open Document Format and LibreOffice in place of MS Office. . WEAPONIZATION IS THE ISSUE The problem is not US software, which works perfectly well. The issue is the way the programs are weaponized. When the US weaponized GPS against a Chinese ship they (wrongly) suspected of carrying weapons of mass destruction, the world realized they needed an alternative, and now has one: Baidu. When the US weaponized SWIFT against Russia, the world realized they needed an alternative, and became aware of one: CIPS. And when the US weaponized Microsoft Outlook against judges in the Netherlands, the Dutch government finally sprang into action. Sometimes you need a shock to get you moving. . .
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Gilles Babinet retweeted
🇻🇦 FLASH - Mêler extrême droite et religion "ne constitue pas une expression authentique du christianisme", affirme le pape Léon XIV. Les valeurs de l’Évangile "ne reposent pas sur la haine et la division", insiste-t-il. (Vatican)
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Gilles Babinet retweeted
Brookings just published a brutally honest paper on what the AI buildout is costing America. A Columbia economist added up every data center, chip, power line and cooling system the US plans to build for AI, and the total reads like a warning to anyone with a pension. $10.3 trillion between 2025 and 2032. That's 3.6% of the entire US economy, every year, for eight years. No American infrastructure boom has come close. The railroad boom of the 1800s, the usual benchmark, peaked at about 2.2% of GDP. Canals, electrification, the interstate highways and the internet all came in smaller. The numbers are rough. Big tech's spending on AI infrastructure went from $97 billion in 2020 to about $400 billion in 2025, and it's on track for $800 billion next year. Over $1.3 trillion in debt is already committed to it. A growing share of that money moves through private credit, special-purpose vehicles and off-balance-sheet deals, where outsiders struggle to see who holds the risk. The economist stopped short of calling it a bubble. He said it's too early to compare it to the credit booms that ended in crashes, and he still doubts the payoff. "Silicon Valley wants all of us to believe that this is a miracle technology... it has to generate trillions of dollars of revenues to be financeable. I'm just not sure how likely it is." His main recommendation is to measure the exposure and make it public now, while the money is still moving, before a downturn reveals where it sits. I've been asking the AI labs for the same thing all week. Show us the incidents, show us the debt, show us who's exposed. Whose savings are underneath it when the bill comes due?
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Gilles Babinet retweeted
红杉的一位合伙人 Pat Grady 昨天直接把他们和自己的一个 LP meeting(Boston College)的内容录制发了出来,信息密度非常高,强烈推荐大家去看一下: - JEV 在过去的 7 天里从零增长到了 100 million 的收入。在此之前 The Information 刚刚爆出来,他们现在估值是在 10 billion。 - 现在 AI 公司的增速,比历史上的都要快很多。Instinct 发布以来,保持了 day over day 10% 的增长率。 - 200 到 700,指的是某一个 high-value knowledge work company 从去年年底 200M 增长到今年预测 700M 的收入。(后面那个 2 到 50 和 0 到 70%,他说还是跳过吧,可能还是有些敏感。) - 在 AI 公司,现在有一个连融两轮的行业惯例或风气:把"陪你建公司的"和"只出钱的"拆开。他拿红杉内部的数据(过去 12 个月里的 7 个案例)来举例: 红杉作为陪建的那一方进场,平均的投后估值是 1.1 亿;而仅仅一个月后,只出钱的那一方给的下一轮平均估值就达到了 34 亿。他自己的说法是以前从没见过,这就是泡沫。 - 很多企业想 own 自己的 intelligence:基础模型厂商只给你 Pareto frontier 上有限的几个点(大中小几档),但企业自己的 workload 需要的往往不是这几个点,所以要自己训、自己部署、专门为自己的 workload 优化。这也是为什么他说专用架构的 lab 在跑赢通用的 lab。 - 应用层公司每 4 个月就要 reinvent 一次自己,因为底层模型一直在变,地板一直在抬。 - 组织从 hierarchy、command and control 往 network of agents 走:AI 负责信息流转,人相对自主地工作。他说没有 Jack Dorsey 几个月前那篇帖子说得那么夸张,但方向就是这个。 - labs 内部:模型去年大部分时间已经在自己造自己,最近才意识到 alignment 没被当回事;都在押 custom silicon、新架构和 continual learning,算力全员紧缺;为了抢 API token,一边降价,一边派 consultant 去给 Fortune 500 定制吃 token 的工具 - 模型能力和实际落地之间有很大的 diffusion gap,这就是应用层的机会。 - hyperscaler 今年开始借钱做 capex,不再靠 free cash flow。 而且我特别喜欢他这种说话方式,他每句话就是只说一遍,说过去就过去,所以信息密度很高。推荐大家可以直接去看原视频, 总共视频时长只有 15 分钟:loom.com/share/c016702964a04…
The @BostonCollege Investment Committee (an LP and my beloved alma mater) asked for a few thoughts on what's happening in AI. I recorded a test run yesterday morning and then shared it with my partners, who encouraged me to share it more broadly... so here you go! This is not a sales pitch, it's just a reflection on what we're seeing. And it wasn't intended to be shared, so please pardon the rough edges. loom.com/share/c016702964a04…
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My hot take is that if your company builds software that it cannot stop from hacking into other systems, your company is a malware company and should be treated as such
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