Simon Baptist Econ retweeted
#OnCNBCTV18 | Higher rates are going to persist till the end of 2024 says @baptist_simon, Chief Economist @TheEIU. Tells @PavitraParekh1 & @Reematendulkar that he sees inflation inching closer to 2% in developed markets by the end of 2024
WATCH:
youtu.be/23Fd1oWgbrk
Argentina election update from our expert
Download our latest free whitepaper on the top 10 risks to watch in 2024, covering the things to prepare for in finance, military conflict, tech, politics and government policy brnw.ch/21wDDb0
It is easy to say that politics is getting more populist. But moderate, business-friendly parties have just won elections in Ecuador and Poland.
Supply-chain reliance is almost always a two-way street. Example: Lithium. Yes, China refines ~2/3 of world's Li so others are reliant. Yet China mines very little. Australia mines ~50%. Without AU supplies, CN refiners die. So who relies on who?
We now think that the free-market radical, Milei, will become Argentina's next president. Expect a maxi-devaluation, budget cuts, quick and deep recession (but no official dollarization) with a good chance of sustainable growth thereafter
Vietnam's upgrading of ties with US is less a real change than the recognition of one that has already taken place. Potentially a good move to do it early: as US-China tensions deepen, significance of alignment moves will increase all around.
For an economy growing quite nicely, low unemployment and high inflation, the budget deficit is huge. One reason why rates had to go so high. Those high rates mean that debt service is going to go from ~2% to ~4% of GDP over next couple of years. That will be a political bomb.
Russia is in the G20! So surprising there is even a vague statement supporting Ukraine. Diplomatic 'outcome' documents are pretty unimportant in their own right anyway. It is more a signal about how the players are positioned than something deterministic in its own right.
China's weak trade is down to both transient and structural factors. We shouldn't forget the former, as these will fade. Things we all bought during pandemic are big CN exports: furniture, electronics, toys. After stocking up in 2020-21, we don't need more rn.
Why is the UK economy so much worse than other DMs right now? Two big reasons: high reliance on consumption so especially hit by inflation, and Brexit hurting exports. Trussonomics hangover also means that fiscal policy space is limited, so neither that or mon pol can help
Incredible that GSK is exiting Nigeria, amid FX shortages and other difficulties. For SS-Africa's biggest economy, not a great example of future potential as seen by global companies
Simon Baptist Econ retweeted
Hear how China's economic slowdown could hurt and benefit other countries from @baptist_simon
cnn.com/videos/business/2023…
Interesting update to the @SgGoverment weather app: wet bulb temperature now added. Quite looking forward to seeing how useful it is for timing runs! Not looking forward to the #ClimateCrisis #climatechange it reflects
Twitter and Credit Suisse rebrands make you wonder about all those line items called “goodwill” in balance sheets and asset valuations
China’s economy is absolutely weak. However a -0.3% yoy CPI read is not that dramatic when prior year is as Ukraine-invasion spikes in energy and food prices were very intense. Many places could use a little disinflation right now.
The return of industrial policy is a huge theme of 2023/24. Few saw what the collision of the US's IRA plus China's approach would lead to. But it is a lot! See how subsidies are re-shaping the green and digital transitions in our latest whitepaper:
eiu.com/n/campaigns/global-g…
Timor-Leste's economy is set to decline by ~13% this year, following a ~17% decline last year. The economy has been dominated by oil and gas, and the country's oil field is being decommissioned. Non-oil economy is very small...
Ofc, it is difficult for any population to accept big spending cuts when econ changes mean real living standards need to drop (eg UK/Brexit). Each year, the temptation will be to delay reckoning and draw down the SWF for just one more year...