Assistant professor @VUamsterdam. Previously @EuropeAtHarvard @IPZ_ch @ic3jm @pablodeolavide. Comparative politics, public opinion. 🏳️🌈
Where the sky is blue. 🦋
Joined September 2009
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Un hito de estas elecciones:
Por primera vez en la historia de España, una persona abiertamente LGBTQ+ es candidata a la presidencia del Gobierno.
Así quedan las izquierdas no estatales. Dos novedades importantes:
- @AdelanteAND se suma al grupo de fuerzas que concurren de manera independiente
- @Esquerra_ERC se suma al grupo de partidos con alianzas estatales
No ha habido grandes cambios en las últimas semanas de encuestas, pero sí que se perciben dos tendencias:
- Subida de PSOE y Vox
- Bajada de PP
Parece que esto puede cumplirse:
lasexta.com/elecciones/gener…
The Muslim penalty is nearly double among nativists (8pp) compared to non-nativists (4pp).
This means that even non-nativists show this bias. The rejection of Muslim-associated proposals isn't limited to the usual suspects. (8/11)
Key findings on what drives support:
📌 Proposals from Muslim-associated organizations receive a ~5pp penalty across all policy types (progressive and conservative)
📌 In-group norms matter most: when told 80% of nationals support a policy, support jumps 13pp vs. 20% support
We test this with a novel AI-powered visual conjoint experiment in the Netherlands 🇳🇱 and Germany 🇩🇪 (N=2,527).
Respondents chose between hypothetical education reform proposals from civic actors, with randomized identity cues.
Example of task: (5/11)
