connoisseur of exotic financial products building @ZEITfinance and @autonomous_af
Belgrade
Joined May 2022
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- Followers8.3K
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Smo retweeted
Our newest PM Wisdom featured project: @0xinsiderdotcom.
Big bets are easy to spot. Knowing whether the wallet behind them is any good is harder.
0xInsider grades Polymarket wallets, tracks flow across Polymarket and Kalshi, and gives builders API, MCP and webhooks.
Smo retweeted
Every market has a price. Quotient adds an independent forecast.
This week’s PM Wisdom featured project is @QuotientHQ. Q covers prediction markets and perps, publishing Signals with its fair price, the market price, and supporting evidence.
Smo retweeted
Kalshi just LOST another major case and appealed to the Supreme court
the coming ruling will decide the future of the entire Prediction Market industry
an alliance of 8 different states have tried to ban Kalshi and so far won every appeal :
3rd Circuit: Kalshi wins ✅ -> state appeals
9th Circuit: Kalshi loses ❌-> Kalshi appeals
6th Circuit: Kalshi loses again❌ -> Kalshi appeals to Supreme Court
--- we are here ---
Supreme court : [to be determined]
the fundamental question is the same as for the Polymarket vs NY case
"Are prediction markets gambling or finance ?"
the States allege that Kalshi is a sports gambling platform and should thus be subject to states gambling laws
Kalshi pretends that they are a financial derivative platform and should thus be regulated by the CFTC
if the supreme court rules against Kalshi, it's the end for regulated Prediction Markets as the precedent would apply everywhere.
right now PMs are considered derivatives :
CFTC regulation = one federal license = access to all 50 states
if they get classified as gambling :
state regulation = one license *per state* + 50 different set of rules
so whatever you think of Kalshi, I hope they win that case.
You can blame them and Polymarket for leaning too much into sports and predictably attracting regulations, sure, but in the end the legit usecases of PMs would suffer too if they lost
I hope the majority Trump appointed Supreme Court doesn't disappoint
Smo retweeted
Overheard 30 minutes of unhinged lore in the queue for Mimi’s frozen yogurt in Soho today.
The word on the street is Shayne completely chickened out and handed an ex-dev (Mustafa) an 8-figure bag ransom to save face
Obviously unverified froyo talk (haven't seen the papers, so treat it as a thought experiment), but the timeline is pure cinema:
-- Mustafa is one of the oldest Polymarket employees, young, inexperienced, but had Shayne’s full trust. He spent his time vibecoding small features and teasing a potential airdrop.
-- Once Polymarket started to professionalize, vibecoding wasn't enough, $Poly lost its pull, and he decided to leave. Shayne was totally cool with it.
-- What Shayne didn't know was that Mustafa had secretly been flirting with TradeXYZ, advertising his PM expertise. He was hired so early that there was zero non-compete!!
-- Mustafa starts soft-shilling TradeXYZ with insiders, dropping hints related to HIP-4 in Prediction Arc TG channel.
-- Polymarket drops that glossy commercial featuring superstars like LeBron James. Mustafa immediately posts a direct call-out to Shayne with the Hyperliquid chart, basically saying: you’re buying fancy ads because you failed at product.
-- Shayne apparently agreed. Scrambling mid-fundraise and genuinely terrified of Hyperliquid’s prediction market play, Shayne looked for a resolution, blinked, and settled.
An alleged low-to-mid 8 figures in liquid cash just for a 1-year non-compete.
If the rumors are true:
• Well played Mustafa. "do nothing and win"
• Shayne thinks he sucks at product, got shook by Hyperliquid, and folded
• Congrats guys, your community airdrop just got wired in cash to a bank in Manhattan.
Soho froyo queues remain undefeated.
Smo retweeted
Polymarket might be the Berachain & Kalshi the Monad of this cycle.
Neither Polymarket, Kalshi, nor any existing player is architected to win this category long term!
Because the entire sector sold its soul to VC vanity metrics, fake volume, and engagement farming.
We traded sovereign economic hedging for regulatory arbitrage of sportbetting. (I love you @sydney_sweeney , don't hate the player, hate the game)
Hear me out.
What was promised as a truth machine has degenerated into an embarrassing, extractive circus.
> Full betrayal of the community.
> Platforms outsourced distribution to low-effort engagement cabals from the 3rd world, ICO beasts, and 2021 cycle extractor KOLs
> Wash trading, unverifiable volumes. Huge shoutout to @beniduboss for exposing the game
> Token promises that never materialize, rotating staff, public mud-slinging. How tf do you want to be taken seriously if you can't get your house in order?
There is ZERO recovery from this level of community betrayal.
Remember why Hyperliquid actually won:
Integrity
1. No predatory token promises.
2. No fake marketing tribes.
3. No investors expecting extractions
>> Just the builders and the community.
>> Just transparent points, relentless engineering, sovereign infra, and pure alignment with users.
HIP-4 won't win this either, btw. Just because the market structure is not designed for long-tail markets and you need them - but this is a different conversation.
There is a massive vacuum waiting for someone to build a platform with Unapologetic alignment with users over predatory cap tables.
The team that brings those values back is going to run away with the entire market.
Smo retweeted
1/ Launching something new today with @QuotientHQ and the team at @ZEITFinance
Q GeoEdge is a prediction market vault combining my market selection, Quotient’s forecasting intelligence and ZEIT’s vault infrastructure.
What exactly are we up to? 🧵
If we were not living in the end times Germans would lead the AI data center build-out and you Claude subscription would cost 50$ and never run out
youtu.be/MQeJYEN_lrg
Interest in breathing has fallen sharply.
Many people consider this a tragedy for the niche.
I see the opposite: that's where the edge comes in.
When interest declines, conditions improve for those who keep breathing.
Less competition. More oxygen. More predictable crowd behaviour. Easier to find open air.
During the peak, even small breaths disappeared quickly. Now, in lower-attention environments, they tend to last longer.
So a drop in interest doesn't really mean the end.
It's a filter for those who know how to breathe.
While everyone is complaining, someone is already quietly inhaling in cleaner air.
Interest in prediction markets has fallen sharply
Many ppl consider this a tragedy for the niche. I see the opposite: that's where the edge comes in
When interest declines, conditions improve for those who remain. Less noise. More predictable crowd behaviour. Easier to spot mispricings
During the peak, even small edges disappeared quickly. Now, on lower-attention markets, they tend to last longer
So a drop in interest doesn’t really mean the end. It’s a filter for those who know how to compete
While everyone is complaining, someone is already quietly making money in cleaner markets
Smo retweeted
Getting a ton of DMs asking why the @ZEITFinance worldview engine is so effective at finding market correlations and building curated portfolios.
We been cooking the pipeline for over a year with @bettercallsmo
It comes down to separating probabilistic reasoning from execution:
• Custom 1-year point-in-time data pipeline
• Fine-tuned open-source LLM (verl post-training)
• Convex optimization layer for execution
Dropping a full breakdown of the pipeline soon. 🧵👇
A worldview does not only represent a fully new defi and prediction market primitive, it's also a lot of fun to create.
Introducing Worldviews.
The most direct instrument to take exposure to the future.
Type what you believe will happen in plain English. We construct a synthetically balanced portfolio across prediction markets that precisely maps to your thesis.
Trade entire narratives and see how competing worldviews price reality.
Express your worldview today
Smo retweeted
Introducing Worldviews.
The most direct instrument to take exposure to the future.
Type what you believe will happen in plain English. We construct a synthetically balanced portfolio across prediction markets that precisely maps to your thesis.
Trade entire narratives and see how competing worldviews price reality.
Express your worldview today
the big ai labs dont want you to know that you can 10x agent performance and cut your api bill in half if you just introduce your agent to nicotine and give him regular smoke breaks
First time we see a divergence on this graph, oil is dumping while prediction markets stay elevated. Who will be right in the end?
Polymarket traders are frontrunning the $200B commodity trading industry
they know when the Strait of Hormuz will open or close before Oil Quants do.
I found this chart on Polyguana comparing the price of Polymarket's "Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal" contracts to "WTI oil future" contracts.
Two things are immediately apparent :
1 - the two are highly correlated (as expected)
2 - the Polymarket charts moves *BEFORE* the oil price chart
this is unbelievable.
For context commodity trading industry generates around $200B profit a year.
They have
- entire teams of quants
- Satellite imagery and other proprietary intelligence
- Privileged access to news feeds
- network of local informants and insiders
Their single mission lately was predicting the status of the Strait of Hormuz, the single most important variable affecting oil prices.
Yet they were consistently outdone by lone forecasters trading on a $6M volume market.
It shows that traditional finance is sleeping hard on prediction markets.
If you are a sharp Polymarket trader with a public profile, expect the get fat offers from high end Quant firms when they finally wake up.
