From $ABVX 20-F, independent analysis says $21.8 billion in UC in the US alone in 2032. As Adam says, 50% penetration estimate from the KOL is extremely aggressive, but one can dream...
Completely incorrect. $3.2B in 2032 in US alone is *20%* penetration by their “own number”. That’s also the number that Morgan Stanley incorrectly claimed they were calling “peak sales”. Completely incorrect there too.
50% penetration in US alone by 2032 (per projections) would be $7.5B, not $3.75B as you claim.
Worldwide adds several billion $ more on top of that.
Check slide 5 of their corporate deck. You’re giving the wrong numbers.
Bioadvo retweeted
💊 Obefazimod holds the line in UC.
📍 ABTECT-Maintenance (phase 3, #UEGWeek2026): 580 induction responders re-randomised for 44 more weeks
🎯 Clinical remission at week 52: 51% on 25 mg AND 50 mg vs 10% placebo
🔬 Endoscopic remission 41–48% vs 10%. Both doses beat placebo on all 8 key endpoints (p<0.0001)
🔁 Works after advanced-therapy failure too: 34–42% vs 7% remission
⚠️ Any AE 50% / 58% / 72%; 2 non-skin cancers on 50 mg, judged unlikely related
👇 The full maintenance data in one image
🔗 ir.abivax.com/news-releases/…
@my_ueg
#MedTwitter #GITwitter #MedEd #IBD #UlcerativeColitis #Obefazimod
What is AI just makes the money machine go brrrr, deposits unlimited 0's into everyone's bank account, and fiat is dead?
Guns and gold of old? It might not be hyperbole to say we are living at the crux of a monumental moment in human history.
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$ABVX I was doing some Chat research and discovered that $ABVX published a new patent application in August 2026. Anyone talk about this yet? They are attempting to cover specific dosing schedules (25 mg and 50 mg) in maintenance treatment. Chat tells me that, if granted, the patent could provide protection through 2044. Chat also told me that competitors/generics could design around the dosing claims and gave a bunch of other caveats - it's far from a done deal. I have very little knowledge of patent law and this could just be abivax throwing things against the wall and seeing what sticks. Apparently, Abbvie has a similar dosing patent for Rinvoq (45mg induction then 15mg maintenance) that was granted.
Anyone who knows more than me able to opine?
patents.google.com/patent/US…
$ABVX The $LLY Gastro X account continues to post things that seemingly tee-up the use case for Obefazimod. 63% lower risk of relapse if patients achieve clinical + endo + histologic remission. Well, why not get all of that in one safe pill per day?
Even in endoscopic remission, patients with UC face a 14% annual risk of relapse.¹,† Underlying histologic inflammation can exist despite endoscopic healing, increasing relapse risk.² How are you deciding when endoscopic remission isn't enough?
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$ABVX "IT WORKS"
Obefazimod in UC: the phase 3 maintenance data, from two talks @my_ueg
580 people with moderate to severe ulcerative colitis who responded to 8 weeks of obefazimod, a once-daily oral medicine, were re-randomised for 44 more weeks. Placebo here meant stopping a drug that had just worked.
It works. Clinical remission at week 52 was 39 percentage points higher than placebo on 25 mg and 40 points higher on 50 mg.
It works across the secondary endpoints too. On endoscopic improvement, endoscopic remission (Mayo 0), histo-endoscopic mucosal improvement, steroid-free remission, sustained remission, clinical response and symptomatic remission, the delta over placebo ran from 31 to 53 points, every one at p<0.0001.
It works with and without prior advanced-therapy (AT) failure. In AT-naive patients the delta in clinical remission was 45-48%; after AT failure it was 28-33%; smaller, but still large.
And it was well tolerated. Serious adverse events were within 2 points of placebo on either dose, fewer people stopped for an adverse event on drug than on placebo, and there were no deaths. Two cancers outside the skin, both on 50 mg, were judged unlikely to be related.
What next: @Abivax_ plans to file in the US by the end of 2026, and the full phase 3 paper(s) are still to come. The first Crohn's data, from the phase 2b ENHANCE-CD trial, are due in mid-2027.
$ABVX $SNY $TEVA Interestingly, the Poster from the 2025 UEGW presentation DID include Endoscopic Remission. Curious why they didn't include it this year, isn't it???
Smarter people than me can do a better job of comparing these results to Obe, but at induction Obe 50mg had an 18% PBO delta in MES 2 and a 10% delta in MES 3 patients. Superior to Duva.
Now consider Obe was 8 weeks and Deva was 14 weeks. Given what we know about Obe's response deepening, it's not a far leap to assume Obe's Endo Remission at 14 weeks are far stronger at week 14 (and beyond, of course).
Also, let's not forget potential Duva side effects are worse than Obe, in Teva's own words: "The most frequent observed adverse events (≥5% of all patients) with pooled duvakitug doses were upper respiratory tract infection, nasopharyngitis, Crohn’s disease, and hypertension and were consistent with the RELIEVE UCCD phase 2b induction study."
$SNY $TEVA original Duvakitug (TL1A) maintenance data PR from February didn't give endoscopic data.
The updated PR from their #UEGW presentation today *does* give endoscopic improvement numbers...but not endoscopic remission??? The most important endpoint?
Hey! Their OPEN LABEL P2 maintenance endoscopic improvement rates are *lower* than $ABVX Obe's 50mg BLINDED P3 endoscopic improvement rates...
...and they aren't even giving us the endoscopic remission data? Unless they were given at the conference but for some reason kept out of the press release?
Another $ABVX W?
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🎣 A first-in-class oral for UC with ~40-point placebo-adjusted remission at week 44?
🧵 Obefazimod heads to #UEGWeek2026 (Barcelona, 17–20 Oct) with 7 abstracts, incl. full ABTECT-Maintenance data.
Topline wk44 clinical remission: 51% (25 mg) & 51% (50 mg) vs 10% placebo. Endoscopic remission up to 48%.
A new mechanism (miR-124 ↑) — where does it fit vs JAKi & S1P? 👇
#IBD #UlcerativeColitis #GastroTwitter #ClinicalResearch
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We're on the ground at #UEGWeek2026!
Visit us at booth 32 to learn more about Abivax and the potential of obefazimod for the treatment of #InflammatoryBowelDisease.
We hope to see you there.
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teapawt.net/SirHiss108/status/1986…
Correct. It is insurance fraud to put a diagnosis down in order to get a treatment covered if it is not accurate. As I said in an earlier tweet today, there are some patients who could have either PAH or PH-ILD but it's not many. For those, it's open to interpretation and MDs could make the case for Yutrepia based on PAH. MOST patients with PH-ILD have no arguable PAH so will not be able to get Yutrepia.
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$ABVX getting the word out to the medical community. Dr. Chiorean is a University of Chicago gastroenterologist with interest in inflammatory bowel disease. As far as I can tell, he is influential in the IBD research space. Thanks for your work, Dr. Chiorean!
"Dr Chiorean has authored of over 60 peer-review articles as well as many other book chapters, presentations and abstracts on topics such as inflammatory bowel disease, small bowel endoscopy including capsule endoscopy and deep enteroscopy. He has been engaged in over 50 clinical trials in IBD over the past 20 years. His principal research interests include the use of novel technologies in the diagnosis of IBD, colorectal cancer and IBD, IBD therapy and outcomes, small bowel endoscopy and gastrointestinal bleeding."
hmpglobalevents.com/faculty/…
#Obefazimod (miRNA-124 promoter) showing robust induction efficacy in difficult-to-treat (DTT) #UC with some dose response among ADT-IR patients in phase-2 trial. Maintenance data to be presented @UegWeek next week @bruce_sands1 #ACG26
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$LQDA If it wasn't already obvious following the legal debacle, I would encourage everyone to be extremely skeptical of this person's voice. Maybe docs will ignore it and check the PAH box regardless, but to pretend that they can do so without potential consequences is demonstrably wrong. Attached is a Prior Approval Request that existed before the ruling, which already required Docs to certify the diagnosis when prescribing Yut or Tyv.
"The information provided on this form will be used to determine the provision of healthcare benefits under a U.S. federal government program, and any falsification of records may subject the provider to prosecution, either civilly or criminally, under the False Claim Acts, the False Statements Act, the mail or wire fraud statutes, or other federal or state laws prohibiting such falsification. Prescriber Certification: I certify all information provided on this form to be true and correct to the best of my knowledge and belief. I understand that the insurer may request a medical record if the information provided herein is not sufficient to make a benefit determination or requires clarification and I agree to provide any such information to the insurer. Tyvaso/Yutrepia – FEP MD Fax Form Revised 6/12/2026"
Would you risk your practice on this?
$LQDA
These are formalities. Doctors can do whatever they want.
Q4 will be rough so I'm looking forward to Q1 numbers.
UTC looking evil as ever, now in front of doctors and patients. Halloween is around the corner, time to dress up as you know who 😂
$LQDA Adding to the mountain of frustrations is the lack of clarity around L606 and treating ILD. It very clearly will mean another legal battle, so there is yet another overhang. Good luck getting patients to enroll in Re-Spire. Even if it's one day approved, why would you start on the therapy if the end result could be the scumbags at $UTHR demanding doctors switch them to an alternative therapy. Good luck to the remaining longs. I'm fully out now. Went from a huge gain to a modest gain.
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Bioadvo retweeted
At @AmCollegeGastro, Abivax is sharing one oral and three posters from our Phase 3 ABTECT UC program. Our oral presentation is an ACG Newsworthy Abstract, and two posters earned ACG Presidential Poster Awards.
Visit us at Booth 727.
Presentations here: abivax.com/publications/cong…
You know what's more than pretty disgusting @GeneInvesting? A teacher being a pedophile. It's really disgusting.
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$ABVX investors should feel very, very good about the Helikon backing (6.2% owner). Throw away any sell side report and lean on the independent research that the buyside does and puts their money behind it (e.g. Sheep and Helikon). I'm sure we've all done our own research on $ABVX (Right??), but it's always nice to have massively successful professionals come to the same conclusion.
Attached is a case study from 2024 that describes who Helikon is and how they invest. Their returns (those that I could find) are astounding.
You see 46% SI (April 2020, good timing...) through Sept. 2024 below, but I also found 52% net annualized since inception to June 2025. We can then assume that number improved through YE 2025 because we know it was up 17% in Q4 and 98% for 2025. They were probably north of 60% annualized (net!) through 2025, which was almost a 5 year period.
$ABVX is the exact type of special situation they like to take advantage of.
$ABVX a few insightful articles about Federico Riggio and his time before Helikon:
thehedgefundjournal.com/kair…
thehedgefundjournal.com/kair…
kairospartners.com/wp-conten…
“We think we have a better risk-reward in trying to go and find long-term dislocations, the dislocations that fewer people are looking at because they have less time and patience."
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$ABVX will also be at ACG 2026 this weekend in Nashville. We will get a sneak peak at much of the material that will be presented at UEG Week in late Oct. The man featured below in Lilly's post is an author on all four $ABVX abstracts being presented.
