Trading Prediction Markets x AI 🤖 Journey: $200 ➡️ $6500 AI Tools: https://teapawt.net/t.co/UyJlSeIR2I Kalshi: https://teapawt.net/t.co/F5Gk8Aflti Polymarket:
Prediction Market
Joined October 2020
- Tweets12.7K
- Following1.9K
- Followers1.8K
- Likes17.6K
Pinned Tweet
$2.1k profit this month and my avg trade size was $28 lol
> $8.9k volume
> 309 positions
> $18 median size
still so much room to scale
prediction markets work even with a small portofolio
my $30 @bot agent made me $2.1k on prediction markets this month (proof below)
and i only spend around 30 mins a day on it
i built the model once, now i just tell the bot to update whenever i need it
it pulls past market data + the latest news on X, then gives me the stats and projections
i just double check the thesis, size my positions and make the trades
research that used to take me a couple hours now takes minutes
still a lot to improve, but it's already paid for itself there's plenty of room to scale
will share the workflow soon 👀
no larp, proof below
Apparently Trump mixed up Dana White with a different person lol
But the takeaway: he's clearly ready to name a new press secretary.
Position on YES new press sec by December looks good here 👀
Hottest market on Polymarket right now:
Will Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by Dec 31?
After the midterm loss, he's emerging as a potential scapegoat over the Iran war. Trump has reportedly been asking advisers whether he should stay
Publicly, Trump says he's doing a very good job
With that statement and with Trump appointing the controversial Stephen Miller as chief of staff, the market now believes more in NO
Trump seems not to care about optics anymore
6 smart wallets are in:
→ 4 NO: 26K shares, avg 63¢
→ 2 YES: 19K shares, avg 42¢
Biggest NO: @MEPPonPM 19K shares @ 58¢
Biggest YES: @bernardbulletin 13K shares @ 42¢
Price now: NO 66¢
Monitor the smart money positions: polyintel.pages.dev
Memecoin launchpad are building perps and prediction markets
Perp DEXs are building prediction markets
Prediction markets are building perps
Casino Supercycle
We’re hiring for three new BD roles at Baton Corporation, the development company behind Pumpfun:
- Perps BD
- Prediction Markets BD
- Trading Terminal BD
To grow the social graph on the Pumpfun app, we need to attract the best traders across every market that can be accessed using the app, whether it’s the trenches, perps, or prediction markets.
You should apply if you have 2+ years of experience leading BD at a crypto platform with a track record of driving outsized impact.
In person (NYC) preferred but remote considered for exceptional candidates.
Apply using one of the links below.
Tracking smart wallets is one way to be profitable on @Polymarket
But I've used many trackers and tbh they look messy and make it hard to monitor the overall position
Copywallet tools just copy blindly and sizing is hard to adjust
So I built polyintel.pages.dev. It groups markets by smart-trader consensus and shows every position's size, avg entry and exit
It helps me read the overall market sentiment, so I can size trades based on risk:reward
bookmark the markets I follow and monitor all the smart money movement
I only pick traders with consistent profit and small drawdowns to the list
I'll start a new wallet where I follow the top consensus plays and share the results soon
I will keep iterating in public based on my own trades, so feel free to follow along here
polyintel.pages.dev
my $30 @bot agent made me $2.1k on prediction markets this month (proof below)
and i only spend around 30 mins a day on it
i built the model once, now i just tell the bot to update whenever i need it
it pulls past market data + the latest news on X, then gives me the stats and projections
i just double check the thesis, size my positions and make the trades
research that used to take me a couple hours now takes minutes
still a lot to improve, but it's already paid for itself there's plenty of room to scale
will share the workflow soon 👀
no larp, proof below
Happy with today’s result: +$300 on Kalshi, +$21 on Polymarket (at least I broke the loss streak hehe)
I see traders posting thousand dollar today, but I’m staying in my lane and focusing on my own progress
Hoping this week keeps going well for all of us 🤞
It's a win for prediction markets!
97.7% accuracy across all markets
The pre vote favorite won 342 of 350 called races across @Polymarket and @Kalshi
• 90¢+ favorites: 299/299
• Upsets: 8 (~20 expected)
• Brier score: 0.018
Full report below
The 8 upsets, by the winner's pre-vote odds:
IN-05 Ford 23¢
TX-09 Gutierrez 27¢
SC Sen Andrews 32¢
NC-13 Barringer 34¢
NC-09 Ojeda 36¢
TX Gov Hinojosa 38¢
OH-15 Leonard 39¢
MO-02 Wellman 41¢
All eight were Democrats
Polymarket vs Kalshi
Polymarket: 97.8% (317/324)
Kalshi: 98.0% (200/204)
Kalshi edged ahead but listed only 200 House races to Polymarket's 429
Senate 96.6% · Gov 96.8% · House 97.9%
The evidence suggests prediction markets are a reliable election forecasting tool
All report made by @bot
can AI replace humans in trading and get better results?
Kalshi CEO @mansourtarek_ says the top traders making millions in prediction markets use a mix of AI + human, not AI alone
what AI does well:
→ writes code faster
→ processes and summarizes information faster
→ learns from past data and spots patterns
but humans still have one thing that's hard to replicate:
the gut feeling that says, "I think this time is different"
some people would just call it "vibes" lol
at least for now, Tarek doesn't think AI can replace that